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  1. #51
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    Default NZO or PPP

    Looking to shortly increase my oil weighting....but not sure wether to buy more PPP or NZO... or possibly a Aussie oiler.....probably tending towards PPP at this stage....any guidence out there.?

  2. #52
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    The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by arjay View Post
    The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.
    Arjay,

    Even the "mature" low growth companies on the NZX, like CMO/STU don't quite pay 10% & to be honest i would like to think NZO could do much better by buying a bigger slice of the action in a JV with AWE on say a 50/50 basis.

    We also have to consider growth by acquistion, once we ditch the coalmine.

    We are only just a producer, & if we sit back & just become a bank, like PPP & NWE we will get taken over, as the cash in the bank funds itself!

    Croseus - Look at AED/NWE - or AWE/PPP - i like these pairings...

  4. #54
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
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    haha cheers for the spelling!
    discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
    the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

    i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it
    i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

    have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    haha cheers for the spelling!
    discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
    the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

    i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it
    i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

    have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?
    Hmmm i did have the ones he did on FIXX donkeys ago...

    NPV probably isnt the best valuation method for a company NOW producing, as i don't believe any project should be discounting CASH.

    Anyone know an industry average gross margin, or a reasonable idea of the costs to date?

    I'd love to know the split between Capex/Maintenance, as with the loan repayments the interest is easy to work out.

  6. #56
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    Thanks Shasta, I will research NWE and AWE today, I remember a poster maybe Shrewd Crude was keen on AWE but had'nt even heard of NWE.
    Cheers.

    On another note, I see WEN (NZ Listing,) has recievied a permit for the Kotuku Oil Seeps, from little acorns maybe ?

  7. #57
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    Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

    So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

    Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

    So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

    Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

    So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

    Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

    So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

    Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

    Balance your a share knocker freak.You must have got your schooling from religious zealous. You have the intended ability to see only what you want to find. I am left wondering why the NZO SP is not about 10 cents after reading your supposed balance comments. Could you shed any light on why it is still over a dollar dispite your many attempts to get it lower.
    Finally is there any difference between Balance,Sniper,etc,etc, and Gerymouth Petroleum?

  9. #59
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    the high case scenario was bassed on oil at $55 but as we all know its well over $75 presently and opex when it meets next tuesday is unlikely to increase supply. $55 is looking a tad conservative now balance wouldnt you agree ?
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  10. #60
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    Between Balance and Boysey we have 2 ends of the Spectrum....... not being a expert on NZO could someone post a value....which includes
    Debt Owed
    Cash in the Bank..plus estimate of Tui Cash going forward ( have they Hedged at a lower level then current mkt)
    Forward expense ... commitments for future drills etc
    NAV if the options go tits up nxt year
    NAV if the options are taken up
    Pike.. hmmn ... have my doubts... can that be a seperated assett...


    and Shares on issue, ( I presume there a millions of Director options and rights lurking )
    Cheers Croesus

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