NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

That exists currently for Australian investors, if they wish to invest the time and get a broker that will deal on the NZX.

It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

That hurdle goes away on Friday.

[blackcap]

It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

That hurdle goes away on Friday.

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

[mistaTea]

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

The lack of liquidity could be an issue for some.

But this is a huge drill, and there is money to be made. I think there will be interest.

[fish]

Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

ACC understand the value of NZO .
During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
It could be a lot more now.

[Ripping]

A poster on HC has been tracking the movements of Ocean Apex...

Seems to think the drill could start earlier than anticipated.

I've been looking at this ( https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005 ) for the last couple of days, I haven't seen it move yet. Looks like there is about 80-100nm to sail to get to Ironbark.

[mistaTea]

ACC understand the value of NZO .
During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
It could be a lot more now.

Yeah, it would be a fair bit more now.

In theory, based on a pure probability for Ironbark anything under $1.20/share makes sense to buy.

This ignores Kupe and the $50M of cash available in the bank.

If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).

Could be higher of course depending on what you think a strike is worth as well as probability of success.

Now I doubt the SP would get anywhere near $1.20 per share pre-drill (or even during the drill).

But for companies that want some exposure to Ironbark, you could happily pay 85c per share and be getting a good deal from a pure probability perspective.

[blackcap]

If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).
.

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.

I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.

[mistaTea]

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.

LOL, yes the infamous 5%.

I asked Andrew Jeffries in a meeting about that, and what he really thought the probability of success was.

I won’t share what he said on here because I did agree that everything discussed in said meeting would be confidential.

But I will say that my scoffing at the 5% probability during the SOA was not completely lunatic!

And remember, NZOG never said 5%. It was their independent report, created by a group of people with zero expertise in exploration assets.

[Lion]

That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.


I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.

From Ironbark partner Beach's AGM last year: "We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays."

You might be selling your portion this week, blackcap, the way things are going. I'm hoping for a dollar before the result. Each to their own, of course. Good luck.

[blackcap]

From Ironbark partner Beach's AGM last year: "We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays."

You might be selling your portion this week, blackcap, the way things are going. I'm hoping for a dollar before the result. Each to their own, of course. Good luck.

Thanks Lion, sorry I should clarify my position. I have a core holding of NZO which I will not be selling and will be participating in the Ironbark drill. I too believe Ironbark has a better than 5% chance of success. I purchased a whole heap more shares at 60 cents and under the last month or two with the intent to sell them because of a phenomena called "thrill of the drill" that sometimes pushes up a share price unrealistically. If it did not eventuate, there was no risk this time as the company is pretty much a cash shell. So its heads I win, tails I break even. The Australian listing was an unforeseen bonus.
So when I say I will be selling once over 75, I am talking about the trading portion purchased for this very reason.