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  1. #17001
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    For NZ acreage yes, the risk is incredibly high. Even if National got in and reversed the ban (highly unlikely at this stage) I think the damage has been done to our reputation now as a stable place for exploration investment.

    We hold a permit to the Barque Prospect in the South Island - 11Tcf prospect, and it probably won’t be drilled now due to the governments ban on new offshore permits.

    However, Ironbark is in Australia - and the Australians take a much more pragmatic view to dealing with their climate obligations. As such, there is a lot more interest over there in companies like Cue (and hopefully NZO when we list there next week).

    Plenty to be optimistic about right now as we are only a month or so away from a truly massive drill in friendly territory.
    Just to be clear on Barque-it is an existing permit so not covered by the ban .
    The problem is that the current government is naive and stupid as far as the need for gas .
    We badly need more gas in the future for many industries and as a cleaner transition fuel .
    The ban on new permits has had the effect of chasing away explorers so we are unlikely to get many existing permits drilled .
    If we are going to get the gas we need in the future there has to be a change in government policy.
    Who knows when this will happen -maybe when jobs are threatened-but I believe it must happen.

  2. #17002
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    I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.
    Pity looney Lab didn't see Barque as nice and shovel-ready friendly. More bang for buck there than a bungy operation and nil $$ to put down either. Risk free!
    Didn't back NZ inc when they could have.
    Importing indonesian coal for Huntley instead...real smart.
    Last edited by SPC; 19-09-2020 at 12:12 PM. Reason: Spelling

  3. #17003
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.
    That is incorrect. NZOG hold a direct 15% equity stake in Ironbark. BP is Operator - but NZOG is participating in this drill directly, make no mistake.

    When you add in our half of Cue's share of the equity, NZOG effectively have a ~25% equity stake in Ironbark. We own a quarter of the permit, come what may.

  4. #17004
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    Quote Originally Posted by SPC View Post
    I believe it's Cue who are digging not NZO so no 'climate morality issues' to see here from NZo, we're just looking over the fence.
    Pity looney Lab didn't see Barque as nice and shovel-ready friendly. More bang for buck there than a bungy operation and nil $$ to put down either. Risk free!
    Didn't back NZ inc when they could have.
    Importing indonesian coal for Huntley instead...real smart.
    There are lots more examples of this governments ineptitude through inexperience and principles they cannot fulfil

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-dai...taranaki-firms

    I would not be surprised if we are importing au gas in 2030 not to mention all the petrol and diesel we will need from overseas with a big loss in Nz jobs

  5. #17005
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    Where there is black gold there is demand.
    Considering NZ is expected to have huge landmass submerged underwater you'd expect large pockets of fossil fuels all around the region bearing on the depth of the wells to be drilled.
    I don't believe explorers have been chased away, it's only the government is trying to push for renewables which one day will likely be the future, giving NZ a greater start in a future that one day will be the change. Oil is very much needed and it's difficult to tell people who live in poverty that renewable energy is the way forward (Vladimir Putin puts this in the great context in a press conference about Greta Thunberg on her climate change speech) and people are willing to dig that sticky black stuff right out the ground in some of the most torn out war bent counties in the world.
    If in the future the ban on oil is lifted in NZ and there are large pockets surrounding the islands you can bet your bottom dollar it won't be long till large investors start poking their fingers around.

    I appreciate your responses, it's a little different here in NZ and getting to understand the politics, regions and products can sometimes seem like a silly question to yourself from me is maybe something I haven't been here in NZ to witness or understand personally.

    Thanks, guys

  6. #17006
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    [QUOTE=LEMON;845007]Where there is black gold there is demand.
    Considering NZ is expected to have huge landmass submerged underwater you'd expect large pockets of fossil fuels all around the region bearing on the depth of the wells to be drilled.
    I don't believe explorers have been chased away, it's only the government is trying to push for renewables which one day will likely be the future, giving NZ a greater start in a future that one day will be the change.

    The push for renewables is essential to reduce greenhouse gas and global warning which are increasing at dangerous rates .
    This change needs considered government intervention .
    Intervention in this governments term have not considered or consulted with Industry .
    Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel .
    We will be importing more fossil fuel unless government acts with consultation and clarity .
    They have certainly lost my vote due to their principled but inept consideration of future energy needs
    Last edited by fish; 20-09-2020 at 06:14 AM.

  7. #17007
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post

    The push for renewables is essential to reduce greenhouse gas and global warning which are increasing at dangerous rates .
    This change needs considered government intervention .
    Intervention in this governments term have not considered or consulted with Industry .
    Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel .
    We will be importing more fossil fuel unless government acts with consultation and clarity .
    They have certainly lost my vote due to their principled but inept consideration of future energy needs
    "Industry needs and wants gas as a transition fuel ."

    I think you have got the balance 'bang-on' fish with both the need for renewables into the future, and the need for gas as a transition fuel.

    Seems to me that neither Labour or National are going to get this right, but maybe if New Zealand First
    gets back in, some balance in the debate will prevail.

    Perhaps in the next coalition agreement between Labour & NZ First ?

    Meantime I'm all-in on the Ironbark drill, bought all the outstanding shares on Friday around
    the .70 cent level. Maybe paid a bit much but we will see, especially after the NZO listing in Aust...
    Last edited by Davexl; 20-09-2020 at 11:03 AM.
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  8. #17008
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    A poster on HC has been tracking the movements of Ocean Apex...

    Seems to think the drill could start earlier than anticipated.

  9. #17009
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    No rush, the later the better. More time to speculate, dream, ramp etc.

  10. #17010
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    No rush, the later the better. More time to speculate, dream, ramp etc.
    Not many shares on offer for sale so low volumes, but up to 72c today.

    If the ASX listing goes live as planned this Friday, mayhap we will break 80c.

    NZO should have a larger Market Cap than Cue. Yet Cue has a MC of NZ$135 and NZO is only NZ$118.

    As soon as the ASX listing goes live there is an immediate arbitrage opportunity for Cue shares. You can get cheaper Cue shares just buy purchasing NZO.

    If NZO only increases to equal the current Market Cap of Cue, that would be the equivalent of ~82c/share right there.

  11. #17011
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post

    As soon as the ASX listing goes live there is an immediate arbitrage opportunity for Cue shares. You can get cheaper Cue shares just buy purchasing NZO.
    That exists currently for Australian investors, if they wish to invest the time and get a broker that will deal on the NZX.

    It exists for us right now too... (might have to tell my mate who has a few Cue shares its a good time to swap).

  12. #17012
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    That exists currently for Australian investors, if they wish to invest the time and get a broker that will deal on the NZX.
    It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

    That hurdle goes away on Friday.

  13. #17013
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    It does not exist for Australian instos that are not allowed to invest in companies only listed on small exchanges like the NZX.

    That hurdle goes away on Friday.
    Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

    Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.

  14. #17014
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

    Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.
    The lack of liquidity could be an issue for some.

    But this is a huge drill, and there is money to be made. I think there will be interest.

  15. #17015
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Agree about the insto bit. But are insto's really going to be interested in a company with a 70% cornerstone shareholder? Are insto's involved with CUE?

    Genuine questions, although I suppose ACC are looking to exit so there is the possibility that an insto could take their stake.
    ACC understand the value of NZO .
    During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
    It could be a lot more now.

  16. #17016
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    A poster on HC has been tracking the movements of Ocean Apex...

    Seems to think the drill could start earlier than anticipated.
    I've been looking at this ( https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=8753005 ) for the last couple of days, I haven't seen it move yet. Looks like there is about 80-100nm to sail to get to Ironbark.

  17. #17017
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    ACC understand the value of NZO .
    During the SoA their minimum price to exit was 85 cents.
    It could be a lot more now.
    Yeah, it would be a fair bit more now.

    In theory, based on a pure probability for Ironbark anything under $1.20/share makes sense to buy.

    This ignores Kupe and the $50M of cash available in the bank.

    If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).

    Could be higher of course depending on what you think a strike is worth as well as probability of success.

    Now I doubt the SP would get anywhere near $1.20 per share pre-drill (or even during the drill).

    But for companies that want some exposure to Ironbark, you could happily pay 85c per share and be getting a good deal from a pure probability perspective.
    Last edited by mistaTea; 21-09-2020 at 04:53 PM.

  18. #17018
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post

    If you say that, conservatively, a discovery was worth $800M for NZOG...and there is likely a 25% probability of success, then it would imply an exploration value of up to $200M (~$1.20 per share).
    .
    That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.

    I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.

  19. #17019
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.
    LOL, yes the infamous 5%.

    I asked Andrew Jeffries in a meeting about that, and what he really thought the probability of success was.

    I won’t share what he said on here because I did agree that everything discussed in said meeting would be confidential.

    But I will say that my scoffing at the 5% probability during the SOA was not completely lunatic!

    And remember, NZOG never said 5%. It was their independent report, created by a group of people with zero expertise in exploration assets.

  20. #17020
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    That statement goes against the insiders in the company and directors who think the probability is closer to between 3% and 5%.


    I expect NZO shares to possibly get to 80 cents pre announcement of pass/fail but not much higher. I will be selling a portion anywhere over 75 cents. It will be interesting to see the impact of the ASX listing.
    From Ironbark partner Beach's AGM last year: "We are not a company that participates in 1 in 8 or 1 in 10 chance of success wells, no matter how material they may be.

    For us, we like a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance of success at these large frontier exploration plays."

    You might be selling your portion this week, blackcap, the way things are going. I'm hoping for a dollar before the result. Each to their own, of course. Good luck.

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