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  1. #17141
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    Ironbark Weekly Drilling Update As At 12 November 2020 NZT

    13/11/2020, 9:00 amMKTUPDTEAs at 6:00 11 November 2020 (AWST) the Operator has advised that the Ironbark-1 well had reached a measured depth of 1811 metres.

    In the past week, the BOP has been installed and tested and we began drilling the 17-1/2" x 21.2" hole.

    The Ironbark well will test the Triassic Mungaroo Formation with multiple sand objectives. The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin gas condensate fields. The primary target is at a depth of 5668 metres TVD subsea in water depths of 301 metres. The well is expected to take around 85 days to drill.

    Participants in WA-359-P are BP Developments Australia Pty Ltd (Operator, 42.5%), Cue Exploration Pty Ltd (21.5%), Beach Energy limited (21%) and NZOG (Ironbark) Pty Ltd (15%).

    For further information please contact the Company on:
    email enquiries@nzog.com

  2. #17142
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    2410 metres 2 days ago-should be about 1/2 way by now
    Relative to previous recent trades a big seller at 0.695
    I wonder why?
    Last edited by fish; 20-11-2020 at 08:55 AM.

  3. #17143
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    2410 metres 2 days ago-should be about 1/2 way by now
    Relative to previous recent trades a big seller at 0.695
    I wonder why?
    Mr T wanting to buy more SKY shares ?
    Yes...the announcements are economical with the info....and I don't know enough about it....should they be getting some indication from the type of material / rock they are encountering ? No idea.

  4. #17144
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Mr T wanting to buy more SKY shares ?
    LOL!

    No, I am waiting to hit the jackpot with Ironbark so I can take my gains and then team up with Ogg to launch a Sky TV takeover!


  5. #17145
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    Anyone have any idea at what depth to expect gas shows, and if they report them?
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  6. #17146
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    Yes...the announcements are economical with the info....and I don't know enough about it....should they be getting some indication from the type of material / rock they are encountering ? No idea.[/QUOTE]

    The reservoir has been explored nearby at comparably
    shallower depths and includes discoveries at the Gorgon, Goodwyn and North
    Rankin gas condensate fields.

    May give some indication???

  7. #17147
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    Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
    Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
    I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
    The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.

  8. #17148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lion View Post
    Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
    Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
    I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
    The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.
    its in the srk consulting report-I have hard copy of this but cannot google it anymore.
    Primary targets at tr19 and tr 17 levels-which on the page 9 diagram are massive and deeper than Gorgon/Goodwyn and around 5668m .
    They mention secondary targets which do not appear relevant if the primary is unsuccessful.One of these is j29 at around 3000 metres but likely poor seal and gas escape .Another secondary target is TR 14 which is deeper at 6000m plus than the primary.

    It would be really good if anyone could post the srk report as I only have it in black and white and would love to see the giant ironbark in red on page 9 !

  9. #17149
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    Originally Posted by Lion
    Davexl - I spent some time trying to find what sort of depth they found hydrocarbons at Gorgon, Goodwyn and North Rankin fields, but without success.
    Those fields are pretty huge, and not very far from Ironbark, and if our current drilling intersected their zones, I'd imagine it would definitely be worth an announcement. Not that I am any sort of reservoir expert.
    I'd assume a later production well could take h/c from multiple depths, couldn't it?
    The really big prize is at 5668m though, as the announcements say.

    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    its in the srk consulting report-I have hard copy of this but cannot google it anymore.
    Primary targets at tr19 and tr 17 levels-which on the page 9 diagram are massive and deeper than Gorgon/Goodwyn and around 5668m .
    They mention secondary targets which do not appear relevant if the primary is unsuccessful.One of these is j29 at around 3000 metres but likely poor seal and gas escape .Another secondary target is TR 14 which is deeper at 6000m plus than the primary.

    It would be really good if anyone could post the srk report as I only have it in black and white and would love to see the giant ironbark in red on page 9 !
    Thanks Lion & Fish! Will keep looking for the SRK report, maybe there is a cached copy somewhere. Thanks again...
    Last edited by Davexl; 20-11-2020 at 09:06 PM.
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  10. #17150
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    Try this link to the Cue site - it contains a report by SRK Consulting:

    https://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f5...etingProxyForm

    118 page PDF document - SRK report starts on page 58
    Last edited by CD_CHCH; 20-11-2020 at 09:25 PM. Reason: Added more detail

  11. #17151
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    Quote Originally Posted by CD_CHCH View Post
    Try this link to the Cue site - it contains a report by SRK Consulting:

    https://www.cuenrg.com.au/irm/PDF/f5...etingProxyForm

    118 page PDF document - SRK report starts on page 58
    Nice work CD_CHCH - Thank you...
    All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford

  12. #17152
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    Left winger Martyn "Bomber" Bradbury is doing a happy dance on his blog with the announcement Beach are going to drop their Otago off-shore permit.

    This makes it more difficult for NZ O & G to get a drill started in this frontier province.

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2020...-riddance.html

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    Left winger Martyn "Bomber" Bradbury is doing a happy dance on his blog with the announcement Beach are going to drop their Otago off-shore permit.

    This makes it more difficult for NZ O & G to get a drill started in this frontier province.

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2020...-riddance.html

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Yep, final nail in the Clipper coffin I would have thought.

  14. #17154
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Yep, final nail in the Clipper coffin I would have thought.
    Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

    I expect NZO to make a similar announcement for Clipper. The policy setting has just made it impossible to drill in NZ.

    The focus will be Australia now, highlighted by the re-listing on the ASX.

    Still waiting to see what we are buying with our cash though. At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

    At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.
    This I find hard to believe. NZO management has been the worst I have ever experienced, years ago I was in the top 20 shareholders and a big believer. Over the years they have done absolutely nothing expect run the company and shareprice down. Lucky for me I managed to lock in some profits when the share price was >$1.50.

    And the latest bunch are the worst of all especially after the buyout fiasco.

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    But do hope they have success with the current drill. It would be very good for current shareholders. Good luck!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Should also point out that OGOG hold 37.5% equity in Wherry.

    I expect NZO to make a similar announcement for Clipper. The policy setting has just made it impossible to drill in NZ.

    The focus will be Australia now, highlighted by the re-listing on the ASX.

    Still waiting to see what we are buying with our cash though. At the AGM Andrew assured us that the small fortune we pay management is worthwhile because it got us the farm in deal for Ironbark. That was a good outcome - but we need to see a bit more jumping around now if these attractive investment opportunities do indeed exist.
    Seems so stupid that the Greens/Labour would rather import coal than use our own natural gas .
    Maybe NZ will one day import LNG from Ironbark(I am an optimist only as far as Ironbark ).
    I guess its on the cards that NZO may move to Australia-looks like OGOG will not be staying here .
    Could be a reason for the ASX listing-a more empathic government and investment and exploration .
    OGOG knows that Natural Gas is the likely transition fuel that will be in more demand as the World moves to reducing greenhouse gases .
    Last edited by fish; 22-11-2020 at 07:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    Seems so stupid that the Greens/Labour would rather import coal than use our own natural gas .
    Maybe NZ will one day import LNG from Ironbark(I am an optimist only as far as Ironbark ).
    I guess its on the cards that NZO may move to Australia-looks like OGOG will not be staying here .
    Could be a reason for the ASX listing-a more empathic government and investment and exploration .
    OGOG knows that Natural Gas is the likely transition fuel that will be in more demand as the World moves to reducing greenhouse gases .
    Interesting thoughts fish.

    If Ironbark does not result in a discovery, the SP of both Cue and NZO will fall significantly.

    Perhaps a reverse takeover by Cue in that case will be on the cards? Net result a larger company just listed on the ASX.

    Alternatively, management could distribute the Cue shares among NZO holders, and then liquidate the rest of NZO. Shareholders would still own a piece of Cue, and receive a one-off cash settlement from wrapping up NZO.
    I am firmly of the view that Ironbark is NZO's 'last shot' at doing something material. Especially now that Barque and Toroa look like goners.
    If we do not discover a significant pool of recoverable hydrocarbons, we simply do not have the size nor resources to start all over again in a meaningful way as we are.

    Sale of our Kupe asset should pretty well cover our liquidation costs, management payouts etc. Which would leave ~50M of cash to be returned to shareholders (~30c/share). And then NZO shareholders can decide if they want to keep the Cue shares they receive, or sell them too.

    I am still very bullish/optimistic about Ironbark - though I think it behooves one to understand your position on "what next?" in the event that this drill does not succeed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    Interesting thoughts fish.

    If Ironbark does not result in a discovery, the SP of both Cue and NZO will fall significantly.

    Perhaps a reverse takeover by Cue in that case will be on the cards? Net result a larger company just listed on the ASX.

    Alternatively, management could distribute the Cue shares among NZO holders, and then liquidate the rest of NZO. Shareholders would still own a piece of Cue, and receive a one-off cash settlement from wrapping up NZO.
    I am firmly of the view that Ironbark is NZO's 'last shot' at doing something material. Especially now that Barque and Toroa look like goners.
    If we do not discover a significant pool of recoverable hydrocarbons, we simply do not have the size nor resources to start all over again in a meaningful way as we are.

    Sale of our Kupe asset should pretty well cover our liquidation costs, management payouts etc. Which would leave ~50M of cash to be returned to shareholders (~30c/share). And then NZO shareholders can decide if they want to keep the Cue shares they receive, or sell them too.

    I am still very bullish/optimistic about Ironbark - though I think it behooves one to understand your position on "what next?" in the event that this drill does not succeed.

    Thinking hard about the risks of Ironbark not succeeding and the impact on the share price. Your options on disposal possibilities are somewhat encouraging to stay in the game. Have read the SRK report also and think that at the end of the day, there are only so many chances to take the risk to win something this large in life, but sizing the level of risk to accept in a portfolio is no easy question. Risk / Reward are both High and Petro-Geology knowledge at depths being considered remain speculative, with many other farm-in players turning down the opportunity earlier, not that we know the reasons behind that (after confidential due diligence).

    Still - I'm in!
    Last edited by Davexl; 25-11-2020 at 08:43 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davexl View Post
    Thinking hard about the risks of Ironbark not succeeding and the impact on the share price. Your options on disposal possibilities are somewhat encouraging to stay in the game. Have read the SRK report also and think that at the end of the day, there are only so many chances to take the risk to win something this large in life, but sizing the level of risk to accept in a portfolio is no easy question. Risk / Reward are both High and Petro-Geology knowledge at depths being considered remain highly speculative, with many other farm-in players turning down the opportunity earlier (after confidential due diligence).
    Still - I'm in!
    Good to see you are still in .
    I have a big investment riding on this -initially base on the preferred valuation in the SRK report (from memory the risked valuation was $350 million ) and subsequent estimated chances of success which were actually better than SRK estimated .
    The CUE sp has nearly doubled this year and Beach had a big rise today.
    I expected there would be a rise in NZO with progression of the drill and consequent less risk of failure .
    I guess negative sentiment still clouds NZO valuation.
    However Ironbark is in the hands of BP-and you can be sure they have a good blowout prevention system !
    SRK estimated 50% chance of gas having been formed .
    We know there is excellent reservoir properties and likely good seal .
    I have been told from a reliable source that BP would not be doing this unless there was an approximate 1 in 2 chance success or better .
    Cue estimate a 1 in 3 chance

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