NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[kiora]

Prime Minister Adern banned offshore oil and gas exploration because it was evil.

Nek minit Revenue Minister Stuart Nash extends the tax break for oil exploration and seismic survey equipment because it is good.

I'm confused.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...-fuel-industry

A bit contrary if they still drive ICE cars ?

[fish]

OGOG maybe feeling unwanted in NZ.
I would not be surprised if they have plans to takeover NZO and head to AUS with all the assets they can get away with-will need 90% of all shares to do this .

[blackcap]

For what its worth:

I attended a presentation that was hosted by the Wellington Branch of the NZSA where Andrew Jefferies CEO of NZO had an in depth hour and a half long presentation on the prospects of NZO. He talked a lot about Ironbark and was in my opinion very bullish on this. He was also in my opinion bullish on NZO. I purchased some NZO shares the next week in the low 50's because of this presentation. This was from memory in May 2019. In addition to being CEO, he is also a director of NZO.

[mistaTea]

For what its worth:

I attended a presentation that was hosted by the Wellington Branch of the NZSA where Andrew Jefferies CEO of NZO had an in depth hour and a half long presentation on the prospects of NZO. He talked a lot about Ironbark and was in my opinion very bullish on this. He was also in my opinion bullish on NZO. I purchased some NZO shares the next week in the low 50's because of this presentation. This was from memory in May 2019. In addition to being CEO, he is also a director of NZO.

Yes, we are all bullish on Ironbark.

The reality is, if the prospects of NZO were as doom and gloom as is now being highlighted, OGOG would not be rushing to buy the remaining 30%. Ofer Global has not grown into the colossal success that they have become by throwing more good money after bad.

They paid about $85M to get the first 70% of NZOG. Now they would like to pick up the rest for $30M.

That would make the total amount paid for all of NZOG $115M (69c/share) - less than the existing assets are worth. Not a bad deal if you can get it - especially when, as you say, everyone including BP, Beach, OGOG, Cue and the Directors of NZOG are very bullish on the enormous Ironbark prospect (touted at being 5 times as large as Maui!)

[mistaTea]

Another thing that I think the reps from NZOG seem to forget while they were trying to work out a way to value the assets and come up with a 'fair' offer price...

The minority holders have not asked for this. It's not like 2 or 3 large minority holders have approached OGOG to see if they would pretty please take our shares off our hands because they were feeling so gloomy about NZOG. If that was the case, the 62 cent offer would make some sense.

It is OGOG who is thrusting this process onto us. Possibly not realising that a significant portion of the minority base are long-term business owners, dead set on exploring Ironbark, OGOG probably genuinely thought that an offer price 25% above the recent share price would be seen as a big win. A great boon.

In reality, most of us really couldn't give a sh1t what the short-medium term share price is. ALL we care about is how the business performs over time, and what the likely future prospects are.

And, baby do we wanna drill!

[fish]

absolutely
The thrill of the drill

[mistaTea]

absolutely
The thrill of the drill

Looks like this particular drill is estimated at costing a lot less than I originally thought too. Only about $30M likely for the exploration well (not $100M). Maybe allow up to $50M if costs blow out.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...973/284201.pdf

So NZOG would need to pay $4.5M. Hell, let's double that and round up to $10M to allow for cost blow outs and the amount we need to carry CUE for...

A very small investment required, for a potentially huge (and I mean HUGE) upside. If we were a gospel choir I'd be demanding an AMEN right about now. Possible even a HALLELUJAH!

[RTM]

You are all almost talking me into buying more...even at todays price !
I never was going to sell anyway. Won't until I am forced.

Cheers and thanks for all the considered opinions.

One thing that does niggle away at me....is it seems so clear cut that we should reject the offer.
Soooo...what are we possibly missing with our rose tinted glasses ? I have no idea.

Cheers
RTM

[mistaTea]

You are all almost talking me into buying more...even at todays price !
I never was going to sell anyway. Won't until I am forced.

Cheers and thanks for all the considered opinions.

One thing that does niggle away at me....is it seems so clear cut that we should reject the offer.
Soooo...what are we possibly missing with our rose tinted glasses ? I have no idea.

Cheers
RTM

Sure. Downside is that Ironbark turns out to be a dry well and Barque + Toroa permits are abandoned due to lack of interest from potential farm-in partners caused by the Labour government offshore ban.

But even then, the existing production assets would still exist plus the majority of the cash in the bank (unless it has been deployed by then into other income-producing assets).

It wouldn’t be a great situation to be in, but life would go on and we wouldn’t lose everything.

Heads I win. Tails I don’t lose - much.

[Sideshow Bob]

Surely with the price jump to 61 since the announcement (occasional trades at 62c), then anyone buying would have the expectation of a higher price - and strengthen the likelihood of not getting what they need to, to mop up the company. Not going to buy in to make 1 cent.

Although volumes traded haven't been great....