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  1. #15946
    Senior Member Marilyn Munroe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    MistaTea discusses Govt's exploration ban
    I predict when we have a dry year with electricity shortages and an election looming the current government will have a sudden change from virtue signalling ideology to realpolitik.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  2. #15947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marilyn Munroe View Post
    I predict when we have a dry year with electricity shortages and an election looming the current government will have a sudden change from virtue signalling ideology to realpolitik.

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Indeed. Though, even if the government reversed (or dramatically diluted) their decision in the face of an energy disaster, it may well still be too late to attract Big Oil back.

    It would take a lot of convincing anyway, after making such a hasty and ill-conceived policy with virtually no consultation. The oil explorers will be thinking, fool me once shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me.

    Patrick Smellie wrote a piece that may be of interest in the herald.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12241832

  3. #15948
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    So O.G. want the lot now.

    Announcement today: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337411

    My initial view is to call bulls**t on this offer.

    Basically says "We will pay 25% above market sentiment".

    What about paying what it is actually worth given Ironbark and other prospects?

  4. #15949
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Basically sites that the government has destroyed NZ in the Oil and Gas field (I agree).

    No mention about the fact that IRONBARK IS NOT IN NEW ZEALAND.

  5. #15950
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    So O.G. want the lot now.

    Announcement today: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337411

    My initial view is to call bulls**t on this offer.

    Basically says "We will pay 25% above market sentiment".

    What about paying what it is actually worth given Ironbark and other prospects?
    A very, very opportunistic and cheeky offer to be sure. Shareholders would probably get 80- 90 cents per share if the company was just liquidated.

    How does voting work for scheme of arrangements? Only the 30% being acquired are able to vote on it?
    Last edited by mistaTea; 11-07-2019 at 06:30 AM.

  6. #15951
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mistaTea View Post
    A very, very opportunistic and cheeky offer to be sure. Shareholders would probably get 80- 90 cents per share if the company was just liquidated. Shame on OGOG.

    How does voting work for scheme of arrangements? Only the 30% being acquired are able to vote on it?
    For the scheme to be approved, NZO shareholders must approve the scheme by resolution of:

    75% of the votes cast in each interest class, and a simple majority of all votes on issue (whether voted or not).

    Whole process is laid out here (I am in no way affiliated with the following crowd in any way):
    https://minterellison.co.nz/our-view...angement-works

    Cant really blame OGOG... shame on the Board, especially the independent directors.
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 10-07-2019 at 09:06 AM.

  7. #15952
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    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...284/265938.pdf

    Remember, in 2017 Northington Partners gave NZOG a valuation range of 78 - 93 cents per share. That was just based on existing tangible assets, did not take into account Barque or Ironbark.

    Northington will be engaged to provide a value estimate again as part of this process. I don't see how the value could have changed much from 2017...nothing has happened to the existing assets, and oil prices are up.
    Last edited by mistaTea; 10-07-2019 at 09:54 AM. Reason: fixed typo

  8. #15953
    Member flyingmariner's Avatar
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    I think I'll take the money and run. There may be a better offer but doubtful. The NZ Govt. has made it quite obvious that all exploration is bad and they have the coalition numbers to back up any legislation. i.e. the greens.

    In some ways I can't wait to see the gas stoves go out and then people will realize just how critical energy and oil companies are to an economy.

    Everything is wonderful right now but some of us remember the oil shocks of the 70's and 80's and it will happen again. At that time the NZ consumer will blame all the current geniuses for banning exploration.

    Personally I'm impatient to get my funds out of NZO before some more dopey legislation comes down the pike.

  9. #15954
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    Didn't take long to get a letter (email) out to holders:

    DearShareholder

    As you may have heard in the news, New Zealand Oil & Gas and its majorshareholder OGOG have agreed a scheme implementation agreement, and if theproposed scheme of arrangement is successful, it will result in OGOG buying the30 per cent of shares in New Zealand Oil & Gas it doesn’t already own. TheNew Zealand Oil & Gas Independent Directors unanimously recommend shareholdersvote in favour of the scheme, subject to the independent adviser’s reportconcluding the scheme price is within or about its valuation range.

    Details have been released to the NZX and are on our website at
    http://nzog.com.

    All shareholders will be sent a full information package. This is currentlyplanned to arrive in time for a shareholder meeting in September, whereshareholders will vote on the scheme.

    In the meantime, if you would like to discuss you are welcome to email me at john.pagani@nzog.com, or call on 04 4718333.


    Warm regards

  10. #15955
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    For the scheme to be approved, NZO shareholders must approve the scheme by resolution of:

    75% of the votes cast in each interest class, and a simple majority of all votes on issue (whether voted or not).

    Whole process is laid out here (I am in no way affiliated with the following crowd in any way):
    https://minterellison.co.nz/our-view...angement-works

    Cant really blame OGOG... shame on the Board, especially the independent directors.
    Sorry for the ignorance and bad spelling.
    What I need to know is does this scheme prevent the 90% takeover clause. At 90% shareholder remaining can get an independent [that is a truely independent] assesment paid for by the takeover target company. My shares are not for sell at anything like this low offer. I will wait for Ironbank,even as I know OGOG wants all now before Ironbank.

    Calling FISH. An old computer friend needs your imput now as I well remember you several times said you had successfull experience in this takeover above 90%.
    digger

  11. #15956
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    My shares will not be sold voluntarily at anything like this offer price.
    The independent directors do not look very independent to me.

  12. #15957
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    Quote Originally Posted by digger View Post
    My shares are not for sell at anything like this low offer. I will wait for Ironbank,even as I know OGOG wants all now before Ironbank.
    Hey digger, my shares are off the table too. I want to explore ironbark too - OGOG would have to offer a reasonable sum more to me before I would consider voting to sell my equity.

    After discussing the matter with John Pagani, I sent him an email. On the off chance my ramblings are of interest to anyone, I reproduce them below.

    *********
    Thanks again for taking the time to phone me earlier John, I really do appreciate it. As discussed, I am more than happy to chat with Alistair - and you are welcome to forward this email and my details on to him. In fact, I encourage you to do so.

    I wanted to put some thoughts on paper, to make sure my position is clear. No doubt, we could argue the toss on a number of points, but ultimately this boils down to whether or not OGOG are truly being fair to departing equity partners with the current offer. I think not.


    Though I understand the NZ specific challenges that the Labour government has created, and appreciate why OGOG want to take 100% ownership of NZOG - the offer of 62 cents does seem very low to me. Though I do not have access to live accounting data for NZOG, this value is lower than NTA and does not take into account the enormous Ironbark prospect.
    In fact, Ironbark is not even mentioned in the NZX announcement. A large gas strike in Australia is far from certain, however the prospect is interesting enough for BP to take such a large equity stake in it. If it is good enough for BP, it is good enough for me (and certainly not worthless).


    I do appreciate the comments you made about corporate overheads being a drag on current performance etc, however the reality is that existing production has been enough to cover the required cashflows so far. In fact, cash balances have tended to rise despite spend on production, exploration and administration.


    In terms of no dividends being paid, and none being on the horizon for the foreseeable future - this is of zero interest to me. NZOG should retain all capital for investment, as this is where we have the potential for maximum ROIC. Paying me a divided under the current climate, which would be subject to tax, would be absolute lunacy. I view the $0.00 dividend right now as a good thing, certainly not a mark against NZOG as an investment.

    Regarding the need for a shareholder vote every time an acquisition above a certain $ threshold is attempted - that was always going to be the case. Any challenges caused by this is not a reason in and of itself for me to sell my equity to OGOG at a discount.

    I have enjoyed being a minority business partner with OGOG. Their long-term focus resonates with me, and my sole interest has always been around the underlying performance and prospects of our business (the share price on any given day, week or month is of no relevance to me). NZOG could go into a trading halt for the next 10 years and it would be of no significance to me. I only care about the underlying business.

    Though it saddens me, I do accept that my business partnership with OGOG may well be coming to an end soon. However, I do hope that they review their offer price to ensure that any criticisms around ‘opportunism’ are baseless.

    My plan was to continue as a co-owner of NZOG for the foreseeable future - if OGOG are going to buy me out, it would be nice to think that a price based on the intrinsic value of the business could be made (as opposed to an offer price that is sold as being in my best interests solely because it is some percentage above the current market cap, which is meaningless to the long-term investor).

    Personally, I would have thought that OGOG would have offered at least the same price they paid for the first 70% of the company to acquire the remaining 30%. OGOG effectively paid 74 cents per share in 2017. That would be a paltry increase of roughly NZ$6M on their current offer. Peanuts for OGOG to acquire an exciting asset like NZOG, but would go a long way in terms of their brand perception, particularly to those of us who have stuck by them, and would be leaving relunctantly.

    In reality, a premium on their previous acquisition price should be made, given how far Ironbark has progressed since then. OGOG stand to make a significant sum of money long-term on NZOG, and should treat minority shareholders how they would expect to be treated themselves.

    I have effective control (direct and indirect) of approximately 1.75% of the target shares, and I do not support this low ball offer.



  13. #15958
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    Thanks for sharing your excellent informed letter mtea, im with you guys albeit with a small holding now..

  14. #15959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks for sharing your excellent informed letter mtea, im with you guys albeit with a small holding now..
    Same from me Mr. Tea... Although I also don't have too many left...

  15. #15960
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    I agree whole heartedly mistaTea. They will not get any of my shares. Shame on the directors recommending this as they seem to not have the regular shareholder's interests at heart.

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