NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Mingeathinaikos]

Good on you NITA you can give me a real blast at the st meeting on the 15th. Bad language at two paces i promise to let you have the first five minutes. Seriously though you should keep emotion out of investing or gambling decisions all the time. I backed Lenox Lewis to beat David TUA in Australia at four to one and david Tua to beat Lenox Lewis in NZ at four to one. I really didnt give a sh*t who won i only knew it was going to be me. I always back Australia to beat NZ in NZ and NZ to beat Australia in Australia you should think about that, and learn when it comes to money leave emotion out of it, or join the losers. To many emotional investors throwing money away being all emotional. Macdunk

my friend. i have never ever backed nz teams in nz tab, not the warriors, crusader or whatever. However on several occasions i have backed other countries or overseas teams on the local tab if they have playd in nz subject to me believing the odds warrant it.i f you have read my post in the off market forum i even stated that the odds for the ab's to win the world cup was one of the most silliest bets. not just in nz but with overseas bookies. simple reason if you go by stats alone (not just world cup stats) you would have backed them with the odds they were paying. to clarify your point, i avoid where possible to take any emotion out of gambling or investing.

I am already in profit of nzo plus i have free carry on what is left in my nzo portfilio. Remember, i first brought nzo back in early 2002 or 2003. this is when nzo got as low as 25 or 25 cps and the options were at 6cps. You do the math.

Point is macdunk, i or most others dont keep gloating or keep repeating the same ol thing. You have some very good imput but i just dont get it when you repeat the same shet different day stuff

You're both wasting money if you are using local bookies! www.betfair.com is the way forward, now sign up and get all those profits on teams at some decent odds!

[Crypto Crude]

mackdadunk,
you really cant be that silly trying to compare NZO to NWE are you?
they are two totally different companies, different market values, different capital setups, different cycles, different projects, different cashflow, different management style, different contacts and different exploration potential.... different different different... If my MOST important goal was capital protection then I prob would choose NZO....!
Its less volatile, more stable and im expecting it to go sideways/up....
But It is hard to think how SP will rise for NZO over the next few months, given all the down SP has had, when all the market info should send it up....
..... NZO has kupe development drilling, momoho, and PRC production in 2008, it does have something to offer.... PRC is discounting this company more than anyone would have thought....
Its a shock to see NZ's premier oiler at $1.... having more certainty now than we had before production is surely worth a premium... having bigger reserves and much higher oil prices also....
... It was worth taking on upside exposure through the exploration wells we had, in hignsight it was not the best outcome but good risk return exposure at the time....
....

.^sc

[Balance]

Hey Mac,
What is it with you?
You and I both know;
1. NZO is substantially undervalued.
2. The Tui project is absolutely coining it at record crude prices
3. The Pike project, while still full of risk in the investor's mind, is going to be a seriously good project at record forecast coking coal prices
4.The Kupe project is on track and there is a better than even chance that there will be a huge reserve increase once additional drills are made in the area.


Macca,
These are the only stocks I own. Do you think I would hold NZO,PRC if I didnt think there was a big future for them?
Check out the others.

Of course you hold NZO because you must believe that there's a big future for them. But is NZO really substantially undervalued?

If it is, why are the institutions not buying? Instaed it looks like they are happily selling out the placement stock they took at 90 cents (plus an option) to the punters lining up and buying off them? Nice quick profit for them, huh?

I have seen a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share. The cash that NZO is sitting on will be used up.

[Unicorn]

Of course you hold NZO because you must believe that there's a big future for them. But is NZO really substantially undervalued?

If it is, why are the institutions not buying? Instaed it looks like they are happily selling out the placement stock they took at 90 cents (plus an option) to the punters lining up and buying off them? Nice quick profit for them, huh?

I have seen a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share. The cash that NZO is sitting on will be used up.

According to your "valuation", from an unidentified source ...
$40M Cash is worth nothing.
Tax credits are worth nothing.
The company has nil value other than the identified reserves in those 3 projects.
The Kupe partners are spending $1,100M for a $300M return.

Not a valuation I would give any credibility to.

[Bilo]

(un) Balanced "saw a valuation done on NZO and it goes along the lines of :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NZV = 92 cents per share."

Maybe USD a couple of years ago? If you saw it on the net it must be true!

Try something like this:

Tui 32M barrels of oil (current P2!) @ USD 90 per barrel
=USD2,900M
less project cost USD270M
less FPSO 5yrs ~USD170M (plus 3more @ USD100M)

The Tui project could net USD2360M

To NZO USD295M

Forget about time value of money, margins on risk percentages and all that stuff, assume oil price rises will keep pace, the Tui area will yield more oil at marginal drilling costs so don’t discount for risk. It is all pretty near term now.

256M shares on issue
115 US cents per NZO share
and put whatever USD/NZD you care to choose (and Balance get the conversion around the right way. Oops it is over the NZOOD option conversion price - perhaps I have made some mistake, McD?

Potentially

For Tui
without anything else....

Now I don't want to become labelled a ramper, or mislead anyone in to thinking that oil exploration drilling is not more risky than investing in Vector or Telecom, so spend the next six months doing your own calculations. The share price will be whatever whoever controls this illiquid share wants to make it...and my guess is that will be whatever makes them plenty...steal or sting comes to mind.

[Balance]

Bilo, your Tui valuation tells a lot!

You have forgotten cost of production, shipping costs, hedging costs etc.

No wonder the institutions are so happy to let you 'steal' NZO shares at $1.00 off them!

Meanwhile, in fantasy land, Bilo has just valued BP at US$10 trillion.

[Bilo]

Bilo, your Tui valuation tells a lot!

You have forgotten cost of production, shipping costs, hedging costs etc.

No wonder the institutions are so happy to let you 'steal' NZO shares at $1.00 off them!

Meanwhile, in fantasy land, Bilo has just valued BP at US$10 trillion.

The company answered this at the AGM.
The costs associated with production are small and you should believe that - working people don't get CEO compensation.
The project hedging costs have also been established as negligible.
The shipping is cents per barrel.

How do you arrive at a valuation for BP? Comparing the major oilers to exploration companies is true fantasy land. BP are into retail, refining, petrochemicals, alternative energy, a diminishing activity exploring for elephant oil fields in countries where sovereign risk is major, poor safety record, poor maintenance management practices, doubtful safety responsibility, and living with the legacy of having a bent poofter as CEO for many years. Start another thread to get some more balance, Balance.
I certainly wouldn't attempt any comparison or valuation of BP on this basis.

In fact I only proposed a potential value for the Tui project to one member of the Tui consortium.

I am fully in Unicorn's camp on the valuation that you posted.
"not a valuation I would give any credit to"

The company has provided enough information about their three major activities to enable investors to make their own assessment of value. There is just not one "company valuer" in NZ whom I would trust. AIA shareholders should be concerned.

The issue for NZO is not value, it is one of an irrational head share price, and a currently stuffed capital structure.

I say irrational but:
if I included the ODs in a Company DCF valuation with a cash outflow of $200M in 7 months time (with the only prospective cash inflows to compensate for this substantial sum a reduction in bank debt!!!). My worst case DCF valuation of the company would also reflect a very serious situation.

The NZO directors' inability to see this from a shareholder's point of view is becoming a major concern. They had a chance to address this at the AGM but dismissed it at that time, and haven't progressed in the three weeks since. They have chosen to pursue a growth strategy. The company's failure to adequately address the potential variations to the OD issue with shareholders puts a damper on the share price for major investors this close to conversion date.

So tied up with a dual listing that they can't see the wood for the trees, value for cash or something like that....
Dump the dual listing is my call.

Unfortunately Bermuda, the company is coining it now, and could continue to for the next 20years without additional capital, but extend your investor DCF analysis with ODs included ......

And now I could be a down ramper...

[Unicorn]

Bilo,

I like your enthusiasm but I feel your Tui valuation is a bit optimistic. It may work out as you suggest, but at this stage I feel we are better to stick with something nearer mid-case rather than best case.

The two major aspects where our valuations differ is in the price of oil and the royalty payments (I allow 20% of gross profit for royalty). The key parameters are volatile at present so the estimate needs to be reviewed as the variables change. I see the present $86.25US per barrel (or better) as a bonus, rather than something we should expect going forward. For now I will stick with $100NZ per barrel. The longer we continue with these higher than expected prices and higher than expected production, the better it looks.

My current estimates for NZO share of Tui ($NZ, millions) are ..

Year  Income  Expense  Net
  1       130        50       64  (includes capex repayment)
  2        80        10       56
  3        50        10       32
  4        40        10       24
  5        30        10       16
  6        25        10       12
  7        25        10       12
  8        20        10        8

Which gives npv of around 170M at 10% discount rate - say 65cps.

[Bilo]

Unicorn thanks for that contribution.

Royalty
I had left out the royalty (and a few other expenses). I don't recall the exact liabilities wrt Tui but 5% ad valorem and 20pc profits was used by someone. Remembering NZO's Tax situation I think that I was almost justified in my rough treatment, in this case, at this time. And your treatment while fair enough as 12.5% of Tui, possibly understates Tui's mid case contribution to NZO.

Last month I posted the mid range number (I think based on NPV at 10% of company released information wrt expected EBIT) was $200M for Tui.

Price Of Oil
At OPEC yesterday someone mentioned USD200 a barrel if the USA hits Iran. Thankfully Saudi royalty value their relationship with the USA. The only thing holding back USD100 a barrel was the threat of worldwide recession cooling speculator's "enthusiasm". As DS recently indicated we have had USD100 TAPIS oil a week or so ago. The Tapis premium is not in your estimate, in fact NZD100 is only ~USD80. So I think the only way to treat the price of oil is to state what price you use and probably indicate what difference it makes to your calculations by providing reworked numbers at a low, and a high, as well as an expected oil price over the period under consideration. My assumption that the POO (TAPIS for Tui) will probably only increase from USD90 - as you suggest - may well eventuate.

Mid-case numbers
Rather than forever trying to hit a forecast with one "mid-case" number, valuations should include a mid-case low where most things turn out bad and a mid -case high where most things turn out smelling of roses. This treatment would add to the overall understanding IMO.

Enthusiasm?
Well currently not much really, for NZO/NZOOD. The NZOOD money is the major concern that I have. As DS said - NZO doesn't have a current need for more cash from shareholders. The growth "strategy" lacks substance. Current enthusiasm for PRC

[Balance]

Unicorn, using 10% for discounting Tui oil? That's where you differ from the institutional market and that's why they will not buy into NZO. Try 12.5% to 15%.

Bilo, you are starting to look desparate. You wrote - "The company answered this at the AGM. The costs associated with production are small and you should believe that - working people don't get CEO compensation."

You should try that with the folks who believed Charles Prince at Citicorp that they had accounted for their sub-prime exposure in early Oct and then, announced further write-downs of $9 billions to $11 billions less than 3 weeks later! Also, try that with Sky City shareholders who were told that Evan Davies knew what he was doing when he bought into Adelaide casino.

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Valuation as per :

Tui $131m
PRC 60m
Kupe 45m (more funding required yet - like PRC)
Total 236m

There's 256m shares on issue so NAV = 92 cents per share.

Now you know why the institutions are not buying.

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