NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[bermuda]

Ok i should have included the figures.
Say we leave it at 40,000 daily. We will get more if we pump it more slowly,AND IT WILL BE WORTH MORE.
40,000 [365]=14,600,000
That brings us to 31 july 08
The field could easily and eventually likely yield 40 million so another year at 14,600,000 will give only 29 million. The balance will get spread over the next 5 years at a lowe rate. Seems reasonable to me and is my best guess as to what will happen.
I am not planning to sell,so whoever the sellers bermuda refered to it is not me.

I se on enegrybulletin.nett that some private conversation by saudies was broadcast live by mistaKE AND AS THAT INFO GOES AROUND THE MARKETS IT IS EXPECTED THAT TOMMOROW THE OIL WILL BREAK 101 DOLLARS.

Digger,
What the Saudi's are trying to do is protect the $US. Bush insisted that Saudi Arabia trade oil in US dollars in return for arms/protection.

THe $US is in serious trouble for a whole host of reasons that I wont go into here but suffice to say the USA is completely stuffed if oil is not tied to dollars. That is why Saddam got nailed.He started to trade in Euros. Iran is now working on an oil bourse in Euros as is Venezuela.The USA is building the rhetoric to nail Iran but last week the IAE supported Iran's nuclear program so much that Iran now wants a US apology.

It is getting very messy and now Putin is increasingly flexing Russia's muscles and working to set a bourse to trade oil in Roubles. Bush is in a hole and cant get out.

Putin has just been to Iran and now Chavez of Venezuela has said that oil will go to $US150 if Bush takes on Iran. Man, what an understatement. More like $350.

Bush wont get International support to go into Iran.

The USA is stuffed and are heading for a depression.Let's hope the growth of China and India can keep the world afloat.

[Nitaa]

Unless theres a recession overnight i can see only one thing happening. Oil going up and Iran being attacked. Is that 2 things?

Its also worth noting that Chavez predicts oil to go to $200 if the US attacks Iran

[Unicorn]

Interesting reading about the Tui project here (it is a 5Mb PDF file) ... http://wa.spe.org/images/wa/articles..._web_final.pdf

[bermuda]

Thanks Unicorn,
A very good read. Cant wait for Thursday when AWE report.

I read the article while watching Lady Chatterley's Lover case on TV1.

Very good,thanks again.

Wouldnt be surprised if the JV put another 'prick' into Tui next summer.

[Crypto Crude]

Thanks for the link Unicorn......
...
Bermuda,
I thought you would have been watching Ali G in the House on C4...

.^sc

[the machine]

Interesting reading about the Tui project here (it is a 5Mb PDF file) ... http://wa.spe.org/images/wa/articles..._web_final.pdf

unicorn, thanks for the link

the other article on the marine complex is near where we launch our 5m runabout - bought with proceeds of selling some nzo quite a while ago.

in the background is garden island - a really nice place to visit during daylight - the navy has the other end of the island and us general public are not allowed to saty overnight.

hopefully a big oil discovery by nzo will enable me to upsize my boat in a year or so


as regards tui , it must be very close to payback development costs and the awe read this thursday shouldbegood.

M

[Nitaa]

NZO now sub $1.00

IMO this is very much becoming a no brainer. 6 months gain on this stock looks strong especially with Kupe. PRC is still the main issue for me. All said we can expect further capex required for PRC and Kupe

[duncan macgregor]

NZO now sub $1.00

IMO this is very much becoming a no brainer. 6 months gain on this stock looks strong especially with Kupe. PRC is still the main issue for me. All said we can expect further capex required for PRC and Kupe

Even i find it hard to understand why the sp would be at this level at this stage in the play. The company attitude to the shareholders is one thing, but surely not enough to drop the sp to this low. When the blue eyed brigade start preaching about peak oil, or how much money coming into the coffers they should remember it counts for nothing, its market sentiment that counts. This is where TA has it all over fundamental analysis. The study of the market counts for more than the study of a company fundamentals.
The market is telling the company it dousnt care about peak oil or how much money NZO is making in the short term. The market is telling the company it does not like its attitude to investors nothing more nothing less. Pass the parcel wont be much fun before to long its taking a bigger hit. Macdunk

[fish]

I fail to follow your logic Duncan-when a share price is so depressed below its fundamental value plus a company that has such a valuable resource which has the potential to increase so much in value is just the time I like to buy(so bought more today ) .
Market sentiment can change so rapidly that you have to be in to win .
I have found it pays to listen very carefully to the sages-such as Unicorn .
Short -term one is always subject to the fickles of the market but next year the company will be working hard to get the options exercised .

[Unicorn]

Even i find it hard to understand why the sp would be at this level at this stage in the play. The company attitude to the shareholders is one thing, but surely not enough to drop the sp to this low.

I can understand the share price being at this level, and still falling. The AGM was incredibly badly managed, so a number of additional investors will have been encouraged to exit - and nothing has been done to attract new investors. Share turnover has been low, because there has been nobody to sell to, and momentum is firmly set towards the downside now. I would not be surprised to see the price slide further until someone in Head Office wakes up and does something useful or until it is ridiculously oversold.

The AGM was not only a lost opportunity, but also a poor reflection on the abilities of the new CEO. We now know he has failed to effectively manage an AGM, and we know that he has not delivered anything to shareholders from the record oil prices and the higher than forecast Tui production. It means that the hopes for a new, vibrant, shareholder centric focus for the company are fading away.

More than ever, the value is there. But more than ever, management are making a hash of it.