NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[777]

Well posted Awamoa. Add GPG to the list of companies whinges about. His statement "Roger and I have been bang on with our assessments of NZO ands PRC - lousy management and equally lousy shareholders" is interesting in itself. All he is doing is rubbishing everyone who does not agree with him and then has the gaul to say he is "bang on" with that assessment. Boring is an understatement.

[Balance]

LOL - keep listening then to the 'Management know what they are doing' NZOers and 'PRC told me no more capital raising' Pikers.

I like following NZO and PRC - they represent an outstanding way of studying investors' and human behavior.

This is an open forum and you are free to ignore or read.

Those who have eyes and chose to read have saved themselves money.

Have a look at XRO and DIL - up 60% and 148% this year. Very high risk they are too!

NZO? Down 48% but the worse part is how the management has squandered the cash pouring out of Tui. And Tui is diminishing day by day.

NZOers need to take directors and management to task and let's hope 2011 will be a good year for you then.

[winner69]

spot on Digger-Balance,I and many others ,Im sure ,would like to know your motivations regarding NZO-It would help me understand your post a bit better. Are you a frustrated holder like Roger..was..or are you looking to buy in?? or sitting on the sidelines with the goal of simply enlightning us with your knowledge?

You guys seem to forget Balance has been ;promoting; XRO abd DIL and a couple of others this year .....

[peterfindlay]

In the context of the valuation debate being conducted on this site, the most recent Macquarie research in my possession my be beneficial:

Stock: NZO NZ

Name: New Zealand Oil and Gas

Event

• Pike River Coal (PRC NZ, suspended from trade, Neutral, $1.38 target price), 29.4% owned by NZO, has been placed into receivership today. Receivership was considered the best mechanism to manage the business' immediate future.

Impact

• Negative news flow, but not unexpected: Today's announcement is a logical step for a company with significant debts and no source of income. It will enable the realisation of assets for preferential claims (staff) and secured creditors of the company (BNZ and NZO).
  
  
• Time and inquiries will undermine value of core asset: The largest asset of PRC is its hard coking coal reserves; however, with the search and recovery operation still underway and a number of inquiries to be completed, we consider it unlikely that receivers would be able to realise value from this for some time.
  
  
• Little value for PRC in current NZO share price: PRC accounted for 43cps of our NZO target price of $1.63. Today's announcement confirms that there should be no value ascribed to the PRC investment, at least in the short to medium term. While there are some valuable items of plant external to the mine itself (coal processing plant, electricity substation and continuous miner), we expect any cash raised will be required to maintain the remaining staff, provide information to inquiries and develop future plans (if able).

Action and recommendation

• We will retain our Neutral recommendation on NZO. We note that ex the PRC assets, our core NAV for NZO is $1.20.

[jwang]

Jwang you won't get a great reception round here talking fundamentals.

That said I did a quick valuation a few weeks ago and came up with 95cps. I bought a few today @83 to hold long-term. Maybe because I wasn't holding a few weeks ago I am positive about their future. That said, the management have clearly made poor decisions. Lets hope they just stick to their knitting in future and pump oil worth more each day as the NZD falls and oil rises.

I know. I'm pretty confident on my valuation, and just come here to see how traders are doing. looks they are all getting out, and this is further confirmation that value investors should get in. The rule of share market is sb's loss must be others gain. Hopefully I'm lucky that others.

I agree NZO's management is not good, but actually it's a company which don't need outstanding management. Its earnings are highly related to oil price, which is not under management control. When I go to BP today, I feel pain as petrol price hike again, but I'm delighted NZO will make money and now I'm the owner of the company. Though Tui output is coming down, Kupe has just started and will have full year production for 2010-11 year. Kupe has much larger reserve in terms of "million barrels of oil equivalent".

There is no quick bucks to make, I'll patiently hold NZO for next a couple of years and let's see the result.

[Beagle]

I've joined you Roger. I'm out today as well with enough hard earned left to stay drunk throughout the holiday period and forget this bad memory.

It seems crazy to me that NZO management can throw millions at a good-will offering to PRC, donate 1/2 mil to a relief fund and yet only toss shareholders (company owners) a lousy 5c dividend each of the last two years. I myself have opted for each of those years to use the DRP, so I guess that makes my dividend only about 3c per share for my loyalty.

Maybe if I ask nicely NZO will buy my PRC shares from me, as it seems as though they have a soft spot for the company.

Good riddance NZO. You wont ever see my name turn up on your share register again!

My sympathy too you Yankiwi you have definitly done the right thing - fortunatly I saw the light and got out of PRC a couple of months ago so managed to avoid the double edged buring many others such as yourself have been served up.

Must admitt I had a few coldies myself yesterday, drowning my sorrows. There are far better places to invest your money that this mongrel. When I've executed my new stratagy and acquired the shares I'll be more than happy to share and explain why its a real winner.

Winner69 - Not sure if you're quip is a reference to the old cliche "they couldn't organise a p#ss up in a brewery" if so that's spot on.

[Beagle]

In the context of the valuation debate being conducted on this site, the most recent Macquarie research in my possession my be beneficial:

Stock: NZO NZ

Name: New Zealand Oil and Gas

Event

• Pike River Coal (PRC NZ, suspended from trade, Neutral, $1.38 target price), 29.4% owned by NZO, has been placed into receivership today. Receivership was considered the best mechanism to manage the business' immediate future.

Impact

• Negative news flow, but not unexpected: Today's announcement is a logical step for a company with significant debts and no source of income. It will enable the realisation of assets for preferential claims (staff) and secured creditors of the company (BNZ and NZO).
  
  
• Time and inquiries will undermine value of core asset: The largest asset of PRC is its hard coking coal reserves; however, with the search and recovery operation still underway and a number of inquiries to be completed, we consider it unlikely that receivers would be able to realise value from this for some time.
  
  
• Little value for PRC in current NZO share price: PRC accounted for 43cps of our NZO target price of $1.63. Today's announcement confirms that there should be no value ascribed to the PRC investment, at least in the short to medium term. While there are some valuable items of plant external to the mine itself (coal processing plant, electricity substation and continuous miner), we expect any cash raised will be required to maintain the remaining staff, provide information to inquiries and develop future plans (if able).

Action and recommendation

• We will retain our Neutral recommendation on NZO. We note that ex the PRC assets, our core NAV for NZO is $1.20.

Yeah, that's exactly where I got to with my valuation the other day but then I had the foresight to discount the assets by 50% due to the current management and Directors = 60 cents while they're in charge.

[dsurf]

Balance & Roger - How much money did you make shorting PRC & NZO? I am sure you must have because you haved called the SP perfectly and I think with the leverage must be up 1000's of %. If you read back in this thread I think most holders got in on the back of the "oil / commodity" price spike from China & increasing cost of reserves. This theme is very strong as the oil price is approaching $100 and yet USA etc have huge reserves based on historic levels,. Fortunately NZO management have nothing to do with TUI or Kupe and this is where the value is. Sentiment is terrible at the moment & so it should be. That will change quickly when the "financial?" press start commenting on impending oil price spike etc. You are correct about management of NZO but we have all heard it before. Please address your commentaries to possible future scenarios or at least the present and try to make them original. You are right!!! Okay happy? But back to the original question - how much money did you make being right?

[dsurf]

At 60c I would expect a takeover to be imminent. I also suspect the buyer to be the NZ Super fund and / or ACC. I suspect they will not go over 5% as have also been burnt & the buying is about reducing the average price of entry.

[BigBob]

Yeah, that's exactly where I got to with my valuation the other day but then I had the foresight to discount the assets by 50% due to the current management and Directors = 60 cents while they're in charge.

I think you're are letting your anger and frustration get the better of you. Discounting the assets by 50% due to your perception of bad management seems a bit excessive.

Shouldn't you at least wait and see what they are actually going to do now?

This whole situation reminds me of the ol' Buffett saying that "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"..... :o)