NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[bermuda]

Even i find it hard to understand why the sp would be at this level at this stage in the play. The company attitude to the shareholders is one thing, but surely not enough to drop the sp to this low. When the blue eyed brigade start preaching about peak oil, or how much money coming into the coffers they should remember it counts for nothing, its market sentiment that counts. This is where TA has it all over fundamental analysis. The study of the market counts for more than the study of a company fundamentals.
The market is telling the company it dousnt care about peak oil or how much money NZO is making in the short term. The market is telling the company it does not like its attitude to investors nothing more nothing less. Pass the parcel wont be much fun before to long its taking a bigger hit. Macdunk

I agree with you totally. (well...to be honest your comment about Pass the Parcel has got a bit repetitive ). Nevertheless a Good post. Sentiment has to change. I have asked the company to put a financial plan in the next quarterly.

It would be a 10 year plan which would contain basic profit and loss material and show clearly the expected net profit.The message would be emphasized as " an expectation subject to market conditions."

This sort of detail is what the market want and NZO should front up and provide it. A lot of other companies do. Be accountable. If say.. an aquisition or something else comes along then just go to the market with a new Plan..... It ain't hard.

As you know this stock is severely undervalued. I really hope they give consideration to this proposal that I put to them this morning. I think you and I would agree that this would be a shot in the arm for the share price...and I think you would really feel part of the company.

What do you think? Appreciate your reply

[Paddie]

I can understand the share price being at this level, and still falling. The AGM was incredibly badly managed, so a number of additional investors will have been encouraged to exit - and nothing has been done to attract new investors. Share turnover has been low, because there has been nobody to sell to, and momentum is firmly set towards the downside now. I would not be surprised to see the price slide further until someone in Head Office wakes up and does something useful or until it is ridiculously oversold.

The AGM was not only a lost opportunity, but also a poor reflection on the abilities of the new CEO. We now know he has failed to effectively manage an AGM, and we know that he has not delivered anything to shareholders from the record oil prices and the higher than forecast Tui production. It means that the hopes for a new, vibrant, shareholder centric focus for the company are fading away.

More than ever, the value is there. But more than ever, management are making a hash of it.

All I have heard, (and particularlyfrom Bermuda and mob), and I don't like to mention names is how brilliant the new CEO is. We got told how Helen would improve investor relationship and what is happened, diddly squat,. The only people making dollars out of this company are the people running it.

Paddie

[JBmurc]

well can't believe the current SP what did the shareholders that are currently selling thinking? high Tapis oil prices just not good enough -100+ million gross revenue 07/08
2 more major projects to come -from my understanding TUI will with upgrades be profitable for many 8yrs+ esp. the first 3yrs

-JBmurc now holding 74,000 NZO

[Mingeathinaikos]

well can't believe the current SP what did the shareholders that are currently selling thinking? high Tapis oil prices just not good enough -150+ million gross revenue 07/08
2 more major projects to come -from my understanding TUI will with upgrades be profitable for many 8yrs+ esp. the first 3yrs

-JBmurc now holding 74,000 NZO

Agree, I too topped up today.

From a selfish point of view, I can't decide whether I want the options converted or not, when I'm holding only heads....can someone please help me decide with sensible input.

[JBmurc]

Well IMHO the opts being converted is got to be good for the company if they have developments & JV's needing the extra funds but if not converted NZO holders will have less delution still 200million in fresh capitial maybe PPP & NZO could do a drill in NZ or join with an ASX jnr in a JV and drill a decent well 50mmbl+ etc( STX has some great permits for one)

[digger]

Agree, I too topped up today.

From a selfish point of view, I can't decide whether I want the options converted or not, when I'm holding only heads....can someone please help me decide with sensible input.

Hey if you are really selfish as you say you are ,you sure would want the options exercised. It would mean your one dollars investment made today will be worth about at least $1-60 by end of june 08. I would say you can not really be that selfish if that has not struck you hard already.

[duncan macgregor]

Hey if you are really selfish as you say you are ,you sure would want the options exercised. It would mean your one dollars investment made today will be worth about at least $1-60 by end of june 08. I would say you can not really be that selfish if that has not struck you hard already.

The share price at the end of june has to be worth above $1-50 for the options to be worth anything. Lets presume the sp reaches $1-55 which was my origonal estimate making the options worth 5c less time lost in the market waiting. People can then use the option to buy a share at $1-50 saving 5c on the sp. The result is more money for the company, but one more share in the mix.
The result of that would be that the sp would tend to drop back to $1-50. I really dont think the company is to concerned about the options being excercized judging by their in action to court investors good will. I think they now have enough money coming in to swill at the trough for a few more years without worrying about a trifle like that. Macdunk

[bermuda]

All I have heard, (and particularlyfrom Bermuda and mob), and I don't like to mention names is how brilliant the new CEO is. We got told how Helen would improve investor relationship and what is happened, diddly squat,. The only people making dollars out of this company are the people running it.

Paddie

Well Paddie what about giving me your opinion of the question I put to Macdunk.
Cheers

[zorba]

I can understand the share price being at this level, and still falling. The AGM was incredibly badly managed, so a number of additional investors will have been encouraged to exit - and nothing has been done to attract new investors. Share turnover has been low, because there has been nobody to sell to, and momentum is firmly set towards the downside now. I would not be surprised to see the price slide further until someone in Head Office wakes up and does something useful or until it is ridiculously oversold.

The AGM was not only a lost opportunity, but also a poor reflection on the abilities of the new CEO. We now know he has failed to effectively manage an AGM, and we know that he has not delivered anything to shareholders from the record oil prices and the higher than forecast Tui production. It means that the hopes for a new, vibrant, shareholder centric focus for the company are fading away.

More than ever, the value is there. But more than ever, management are making a hash of it.

Unicorn,

Remember that the Chairman controlls and "manages" the AGM .......

In what sense was the AGM a poor reflection of the CEO abilities ?

What sort of rabbit were you hoping he would pull out of the hat ?

My reading of the NZOG shareprice is that its discounted primarily because both Pike and Kupe still have quite a distance to go, and because of the inate constrictions that Kiwi investors bring to the NZX, particularly w.r.t. a resource company, just not comftable with the risks still attendant, and then also following the sub-prime fiasco, risk discounts have been increased world wide.

[bermuda]

Zorba,
What do you think of my proposal.?

Wouldnt an abbreviated NPV spread sheet do wonders for the shareprice.? Plenty of room to keep things confidential but with a 'firmish ' net profit.

Cheers. Good to hear from you again.