NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[digger]

Millions being bought, and sold. No one commenting. Is everyone too busy buying, or selling, to say what is actually happening here.? Is it PPP, or the POO, or the NZ Dollar, or PRC? Or all of the above.? I would like to know whether to buy, or sell, some one on this thread must have an idea? Phaedrus, Help!

Hi Stanace,
Has it occured that in fact no one knows. There are only opinions for what they are worth. Take the large turnover of the last few months. Until recently the large turnover was seller driven.Sellers dominate when the price is falling. Clearly to me this period atarted just after the explosion of PIKE and NZO was sold down more than the value of pike worth and in fact sold down to less than the value of KUPE itself. This period was seller driven. Some holders for whatever reason wanted out regardless of tomorrow.
In the last two weeks it is slowly starting to look as if the nil value of PIKE will come in on the low side.Punters and investers are slowly factoring this in and we are seeing a creep in SP to reflect this.As the price id rising it is buyer driven but at this stage quitely and with soft movements. A sale of PIKE will put value on NZO holding and the SP will jump in responce ,but for now it is just theory and little value is being placed on it.
I do not believe any of the recent small rise has anything to do with PPP. That seems to be forgotten at the moment both here and with PPP.As no value seems to be put on PPPV getting anywhere a pleasant suprise could happen here as well.Currently PPP is on assit backing so should not slip too much if all negative. Results for PPPV are sometime in the unknown future.
The value of the falling dollar and interest rates and the rising POO are all good news for NZO.Theses to do not seem to have had the effect they should have had. Still it all means more income for NZO in the longer term and once the money is in the bank it should all help.The biggest negative for NZO is management and leadership.If i ran the company and was facing the 99 million writeoff i would have also been careful to insure that the belt tightning applied to management as well as shareholders.Now there might very well be belt tighting at the board level but it has not been spelled out that i am aware of.I think the other negative is that we clearly have too many problems here in NZ at the moment without getting out of our depth with overseas empire building and the million and one hidden costs that will bring up.This is an unknown that will rear on the SP.
I personally have never been in favor of foreign exchange cover for my experience with the Dairy company being not any better than doing nothing. In the last few years we have lost heavily as the NZ dollar rose against the greenback but now thta is turning the other way.We are stuffed and the Yanks are stuffed.It all comes down to who is the most stuffed and with earthquakes and whatever that keeps changes by the hour,so just leave the dollar cover out of it and with time it should all average out.Cover cost money and it is onlt in hindsight that it is clear if it was a good idea or not.

[Arbitrage]

Interesting to see Martin Hawes says in the Sunday Star Times this morning that he is buying NZO shares as a hedge against fuel price rises.

[Phaedrus]

What is actually happening here?

NZO is slowly being accumulated. We can see that from the rising OBV plot.

I would like to know whether to buy, or sell. Phaedrus, Help!

Technically, NZO is now a Hold. Multiple Buy signals (marked with green arrows) have fired over the last 3 months, with most giving an entry at around 87 cents. Note how the same indicators all gave excellent Sell signals (marked by Red arrows) getting you out of NZO in a very timely manner, well before the big fall. They should again provide useful Sell signals when the current uptrend ends.



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[dsurf]

DSURF

Speculating, Building Castles in the air and hoping against all hopes for a Pig Swarming Seson to materialize is not very helpful. Meanwhile management has suggested a div. payment in the near future unlikely, so no expectation of a Bonanza via PRC in medium or long term.
Meanwhile out there in the real world, Toyota the biggest car manufacturer itw. reducing management nos. from 22 to 11, by contrast what are they doing with NZOs top heavy management?

"Speculating, Building Castles in the air and hoping against all hopes for a Pig Swarming Seson to materialize is not very helpful."

why not is about as useful as this gibberish

"Meanwhile management has suggested a div. payment in the near future unlikely"

agree - I never mentioned me getting a dividend - just speculating on effect on NTA values

"no expectation of a Bonanza via PRC in medium or long term."

What price do you think the mining rights will be worth in 3 or 4 months if a sale proceeds - you seem to think NZO will be paying someone to take them off them?????

[fabs]

Yes, keep on dreaming Dsurf it is free, unless you back it with your money. So you give me a figure of profit in % in 3-5 months time if you buy now for $0.90 plus.
Speculating on a potential net distributional amount after any sale, is well beyond any body's guess.

[the machine]

nzo's 15% investment in ppp - whilst presently well into the red should see a colour change come monday - pink for starters - next friday with a green shading.
this vietnam drill is looking very good and now doing a drill stem test of the deepened section - said section could not be tested in the discovery well.
ppp is set for a major revaluation.

M

[digger]

nzo's 15% investment in ppp - whilst presently well into the red should see a colour change come monday - pink for starters - next friday with a green shading.
this vietnam drill is looking very good and now doing a drill stem test of the deepened section - said section could not be tested in the discovery well.
ppp is set for a major revaluation.

M

The Machine has the color of optimusm me thinks. I sure hope you are right but by the color of the SP the market does not seem to be putting too much hope on success.Naturally the market has no more chances of getting it right than you or i but The machine i do feel you are coming from a position where you could be in for a big letdown if it turns out to be negative or even margionally successful.
Hope you are correct though.

[the machine]

The Machine has the color of optimusm me thinks. I sure hope you are right but by the color of the SP the market does not seem to be putting too much hope on success.Naturally the market has no more chances of getting it right than you or i but The machine i do feel you are coming from a position where you could be in for a big letdown if it turns out to be negative or even margionally successful.
Hope you are correct though.

Digger be assured am set incase the appraisal is not successful - would probably buy more shares as one would expect sp could drop to 20-30% below cash backing.

My optimism is in part due to what my stockbroker said when he was reading the report "development" and my stockbroker owns some ppp.

M

[digger]

Digger be assured am set incase the appraisal is not successful - would probably buy more shares as one would expect sp could drop to 20-30% below cash backing.

My optimism is in part due to what my stockbroker said when he was reading the report "development" and my stockbroker owns some ppp.

M

Well that is it then as stockbrokers are never wronge. Still hoping that is the case this time anyways.
All we have to do now is wait.
Cheers

[dsurf]

Yes, keep on dreaming Dsurf it is free, unless you back it with your money. So you give me a figure of profit in % in 3-5 months time if you buy now for $0.90 plus.
Speculating on a potential net distributional amount after any sale, is well beyond any body's guess.

Well beyond yours it would appear! I have already given you the numbers and was speculating on effect on NTA not SP. Already large holder thanks. My guess is that the mining license is actually worth something if up to 12 people may bid! I will predict the return of all money "lent to PRC" as a worst case scenario when the sale is settled and happy to predict a SP of $1.20 at that time as I think that there will a small return to shareholders as well.

Do you think that the sale will not happen and that is why PRC & the coal is worth nothing to NZO? Am interested in finding out why you would think that?