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26-07-2011, 08:41 AM
#10661
Lets take the bottom estimate 1.1mil. Barrels left to NZO.
At 120 us $ converted to nz at 0.865$= $152mi. instead of nz $190 mi. a downgrade of nz $ 38mi.
Say over 9 years a loss of GROSS revenue of 4.2 mil.per annual.
Question: is downgrading of at one point 18% and end of day trading yesterday of 13% realistic ,what is going on here?
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26-07-2011, 09:03 AM
#10662
Member
Interesting - here are the previous reserves upgrade announcements. So now we are back to 41m, takes us back to the first review on Nov 2007, which was 50% above initial estimates on which the project went ahead. So look on the bright side, Tui has still been a great success, and its still pumping away and all paid off.
22/11/2007
Oil Reserves for the Tui Area Oil Project have been increased to 41.7 million
barrels, 30% above the previous estimate and nearly 50% above pre-development
predictions.
The new figure for proved and probable (2P) reserves compares with estimated
reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the Tui Area Oil Project in
off-shore Taranaki was first sanctioned, and an interim re-estimate of 32
million barrels following completion of the development drilling campaign.
21/05/2008
The operator of the Tui oil project, AWE Ltd, has assessed that this
extension is expected to allow at least five million barrels of additional
oil to be recovered from the known Tui field reservoirs, bringing the current
proven and probable (2P) reserve to at least 47 million barrels.
20/06/2008
The initial proved and probable (2P) reserves for the Tui Area Oil Fields
have been further increased from 47 million to 50.1 million barrels,
following a detailed field reassessment by the Operator.
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26-07-2011, 09:49 AM
#10663
Originally Posted by Mr Tommy
Interesting - here are the previous reserves upgrade announcements. So now we are back to 41m, takes us back to the first review on Nov 2007, which was 50% above initial estimates on which the project went ahead. So look on the bright side, Tui has still been a great success, and its still pumping away and all paid off.
What great success? What did shareholders in NZOG got out of all that lovely money from Tui?
Pity all that money from Tui has been pixxed down the black holes of PRC and PPP, and of course huge salaries and benefits for NZOG directors/executives.
Meanwhile, remember shareholders had the privilege of pumping in extra money at $1.50 per share?
Last edited by Balance; 26-07-2011 at 10:06 AM.
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26-07-2011, 10:16 AM
#10664
In July 2008, NZOG took in $193.7m from shareholders via the exercise of options at $1.50 per share. Rather 'lucky' to have the 'triple' oil reserves upgrades prior to that?
$55m was raised in 2005 via options and placements.
So a total of $249m has been raised from shareholders and what is the market cap today?
$286m!
Mushrooms, anyone?
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26-07-2011, 10:57 AM
#10665
Member
Can anyone quantify if s/h have any chance whatsoever to take on the Directors at the AGM especially as it is in Wellington??????
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26-07-2011, 11:17 AM
#10666
if this bloomberg article eventuates into reality, then it would be a nice xmas present for producers - tapis of course a premium to wti
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...rs-behind.html
M
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26-07-2011, 04:37 PM
#10667
Originally Posted by fabs
Lets take the bottom estimate 1.1mil. Barrels left to NZO.
At 120 us $ converted to nz at 0.865$= $152mi. instead of nz $190 mi. a downgrade of nz $ 38mi.
Say over 9 years a loss of GROSS revenue of 4.2 mil.per annual.
Question: is downgrading of at one point 18% and end of day trading yesterday of 13% realistic ,what is going on here?
Fabs you could have also said that when the oil reserve expected fron KUPE was upgraded by a some slightly greater amount than the now TUI downgrade,that the SP from the KUPE upgrade did not move the SP one cent north.So what is going on. To answer my own question i would say a slow but deeply developed lack of confidence in the board.
DS desire to overseas empire build even when the base at home is erodding away leaves the average shareholder asking what is the point in holding this share .The board is oversupplied with academic wisdom and show a continual lack of practical knowledge.This board of accountants,geoligists and laywers needs a drastic downsizing just as the Dairy board had to do 10 years ago. Under DS leadership in these last three years the company market value is approaching one third it size and getting weaker each day.
Gross income is projected to be 100 million but with overseas dreams and a overladen non preforming management structure none of that money is expected to be available to shareholders. But no doubt though plenty available for the departing CEO.
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26-07-2011, 05:02 PM
#10668
Junior Member
Originally Posted by fabs
Lets take the bottom estimate 1.1mil. Barrels left to NZO.
At 120 us $ converted to nz at 0.865$= $152mi. instead of nz $190 mi. a downgrade of nz $ 38mi.
Say over 9 years a loss of GROSS revenue of 4.2 mil.per annual.
Question: is downgrading of at one point 18% and end of day trading yesterday of 13% realistic ,what is going on here?
Just my curiosity: where you get $190mi from?
Per my understanding, NZO shared Tui reserve is 2.6m barrels at 31/12/10. Now this number come down by almost half, So if it has only 1.3m barrels left. Assume oil price at USD 100 pb, ex rate at 0.80, which NZD is 125 pb. This will represent nearly $163 mi revenue loss for next 9 years, or $18mi revenue loss p.a.
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26-07-2011, 05:13 PM
#10669
Member
well the way some of the big boys are bailing out this stock isn't a great endorsement on where they see nzog going long term, or in the short term for that matter. Over 5 million shares sold today, well up on the 300K normally traded.
terminal spiral looks to have started
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26-07-2011, 05:27 PM
#10670
Junior Member
Originally Posted by notie
well the way some of the big boys are bailing out this stock isn't a great endorsement on where they see nzog going long term, or in the short term for that matter. Over 5 million shares sold today, well up on the 300K normally traded.
terminal spiral looks to have started
Who are the buyers?
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