NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[bermuda]

Hi Bermuda,

Nothing personal, I know that you are a big fan of NZO.

It is obvious from the share price that NZO aren't doing a good job of marketing themselves.
With revenues that they are experiencing through TUI, one would expect the share price to be rallying, not in decline, and it appears almost like that they have two fingers in the air waved at shareholders. I am in favour of anything that you or anyone else can do to reverse the above. I am absolutely staggered that NZO have not tried to arrest the downtrend.

Paddie

Paddie,
thanks for replying. What I really wanted you to comment on was whether or not a published 10 year plan would help. I am sure it would. This is what is needed imho to show the market what this company is all about.

[digger]

Bermuda while i like the idea of a ten year plan,would it not in effect just open the door for more down ramping just as soon as something does not go the right way. I suppect the managment by now are aware of this and if forced to do a 10 year plan would greatly underpromice so to at least meet that target. An under target might be worse than no plan. Just a thought.
Why NZO is falling at this time beats me. Maybe expecting a hugh fine do to the oil spill,as all Tui partners have fallen. Also maybe risk of world fininical markets from subprime.It now seems that only money in the bank is accepted to the markets,as risk free.World fininical meltdown is on the cards. See even at the Indian resort of Taj Mahal american dollars are not accepted. Ten years ago that would be unthinkable.
So a ten year plan on todays rapidally changing world has some risks.One slip up and Sniper will reappear and remind us how NZO can never dilever as promised.

[sideline]

meanwhile in other news....

[zorba]

Sideline, very interesting !!!!

And further in the meanwhile ......

Nymex light crude cracked US$99 / barrel earlier today:

.

.

[bermuda]

Just regarding David Salisbury,

I had 23 years in the oil industry, invested my money in it and retired.

I rate him pretty highly. Have a look at his background.

[fish]

digger
Agree with you that a 10yr plan is a little ambitious but really investors need some kind of financial projections over the next few yrs under different pricing and production figures .
The company must have them . TR will have access to them . He is holding millions of options and shares and most probably knows they most likely will reach $1.50 or a lot more by June .
It seems unfair that many inexperienced investors wll look at todays share price and in their ignorance will sell options while Tr will hold knowing he is reasonably secure .

[skinny]

It has got me stuffed what the answer is, but I do not think the current price is directly related to NZO management.

What is really strange is that NZO (-23%), PPP (-39%) and AWE (-21%) are all significantly off their recent 6 months highs. So either the market heavily priced in an expected discovery at Hector or the market does not believe that Tui is actually producing.

My guess is that the price will change pretty quickly after the next quarterly result.

All my oil stocks are off at least 10% since the latest rally in oil prices over the past couple of months. No its not poor investment choices - all the oil related indexes are off by similar ammounts. What has happened is an interesting disconnect between the equities market and the oil and oil futures markets. The former is "saying" the recent increase in the price of oil is unsustainble and will cause larger correction in the price of oil, reducing earnings significantly in the oild patch. The futures strip is saying bull**** to that. My money remains on betting the latter interpretation is correct.

[bermuda]

Upside,
No worries mate. Just some rough figures eh.

I wish Waaihoek would do an updated valuation.He put alot of work into it but I think the knockers put paid to further updates.Pity really they were very good.

Let's see what AWE say about Tui on Thursday

I think today is going to be a good day.

Check on the announcement.

Tui reseves upgraded to 41.7 million barrels. Thought this was going to happen eh Digger!

[trackers]

I think today is going to be a good day.

Check on the announcement.

Tui reseves upgraded to 41.7 million barrels. Thought this was going to happen eh Digger!

ARGH! Had an old-ish sell order tripped last night for my nzo.asx shares. woe is me.

Think I might buy some AWE today.....

[Lazza]

REL: 0932 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: INCREASE IN RESERVES FOR TUI

Oil Reserves for the Tui Area Oil Project have been increased to 41.7 million
barrels, 30% above the previous estimate and nearly 50% above pre-development
predictions.

The new figure for proved and probable (2P) reserves compares with estimated
reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the Tui Area Oil Project in
off-shore Taranaki was first sanctioned, and an interim re-estimate of 32
million barrels following completion of the development drilling campaign.

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has a 12.5% share of the Tui Area Oil
Project. NZOG's share of the reserves has increased from 3.5 million barrels
(pre-development) to 5.2 million barrels.

Tui oil is a light sweet crude that is generally sold, with freight and
quality differentials, against the Tapis benchmark crude, which has recently
surpassed US$100 a barrel. The reserves upgrade for NZOG of 1.7 million
barrels, at current oil prices and exchange rates, has a gross value of more
than NZ$200 million.

The increase in reserves follows a reassessment of the field by the operator
(AWE) based on interpretation of re-processed 3D seismic, a more detailed
assessment of the Kapuni reservoir and the integration of the production data
from the fields since production began on 30 July 2007. The increased
reserves assume production from the existing four wells, plus the completion
of an additional development well in the Tui oil field, Tui-4H. Preliminary
planning for drilling of this well has begun, with drilling targeted for
2009.

Since the start of production on 30 July 2007, the Tui Area Oil Project has
produced approximately 4.4 million barrels of oil. Recent production rates of
up to 50,000 barrels of oil per day have been achieved, with the current well
capacity still substantially higher than the processing capacity of the FPSO
Umuroa. Water is being produced from the field, but at substantially lower
rates than expected. Based on the current reservoir and facility performance
and the upgrade in reserves, AWE has revised the Tui gross oil production for
the year to 30 June 2008 up from 10 million barrels to approximately 11
million barrels (approximately 1.4 million barrels net to NZOG).