NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Nitaa]

Just a classic buy on the rumour (hunch) Sell on the fact happening!
Those that bought sub $1 and are making a cool gain on those people buying on kneejerk good luck to em! Wish I had the cash to have bought after the shooting star candle the other day :-(

Yes your probaby right along with the ones who have had their tail between their legs over the last few months.

But an extra $100m plus to the coffers subject to oil prices means a 10 cps increase today doewnt add it. It soon will. PPP and AWE is still a steal today as well.

[dsurf]

This is not meant to be an accurate assesment of costs but thought it was interesting - NPAT of $100mill & Revenue of $200mill not impossible???? Share price should be $1.50????



Share price cps 110

Shares on issue 261,905,658
Options 138,837,891
Diluted shares on issue 400,743,549

31 Jul to 22 Nov 4,400,000 barrels of oil
23 Nov to Dec 31 1,872,000 barrels of oil
total (5 mths) 6,272,000 barrels of oil
nzo at 12.5% 784,000 barrels of oil

tapis average us$ 90

nz to usd 0.77

tapis average nz$ 117

$ to nzo 91,636,364

50% costs?? 45,818,182

profit for 1st half (5 months tui) 45,818,182

2nd half (6mths) 54,981,818

full year profit 100,800,000

EPS 38.5
PE 2.9
diluted eps 25.2
diluted pe 4
Sp
If diluted pe was 5 126
If diluted pe was 6 151
If diluted pe was 7 176
If diluted pe was 8 201
If diluted pe was 9 226

[duncan macgregor]

Shane's post was at 12.01 It only took Dunc 9 minutes to get down off the ladder, was his brush out, and pop up right on cue.

When there was no news, NZO was always on his mind....every second post. But when there is good news, Dunc doesn't want to know

I got off the ladder at lunchtime always look at the market at that time. What i think only matters with my money you go for it hope for your sake it gets back to its high point of a couple of years ago. I expect a lot of releaved sellers bailing out on the way up getting their money back. I would not get to worked up until the sp reaches a new high its still playing catch up. Macdunk

[KiwiBear]

You guys seem to know oilers more than me. What's the best oiler to buy when there is the eminent correction due in oil, once the northern winter buying has stopped. So I can pounce when the timing is right
and let you guys know!

Is it AWE, PPP, NZO or an another Aussie NZ share.

[shane_m]

You guys seem to know oilers more than me. What's the best oiler to buy when there is the eminent correction due in oil, once the northern winter buying has stopped. So I can pounce when the timing is right
and let you guys know!

Is it AWE, PPP, NZO or an another Aussie NZ share.

I am no oil expert, you should have a look at AMU and PSA.

[OutToLunch]

This is not meant to be an accurate assesment of costs but thought it was interesting - NPAT of $100mill & Revenue of $200mill not impossible???? Share price should be $1.50????



Share price cps 110

Shares on issue 261,905,658
Options 138,837,891
Diluted shares on issue 400,743,549

31 Jul to 22 Nov 4,400,000 barrels of oil
23 Nov to Dec 31 1,872,000 barrels of oil
total (5 mths) 6,272,000 barrels of oil
nzo at 12.5% 784,000 barrels of oil

tapis average us$ 90

nz to usd 0.77

tapis average nz$ 117

$ to nzo 91,636,364

50% costs?? 45,818,182

profit for 1st half (5 months tui) 45,818,182

2nd half (6mths) 54,981,818

full year profit 100,800,000

EPS 38.5
PE 2.9
diluted eps 25.2
diluted pe 4
Sp
If diluted pe was 5 126
If diluted pe was 6 151
If diluted pe was 7 176
If diluted pe was 8 201
If diluted pe was 9 226

Seems reasonable enough. Surely the options are worth a punt at these levels... if I wasn't a non-trader I'd be tempted to grab a few more now and flick 'em off before expiry.

[Toddy]

Seems reasonable enough. Surely the options are worth a punt at these levels... if I wasn't a non-trader I'd be tempted to grab a few more now and flick 'em off before expiry.

I took a punt on the options this morning. Before today I gave them about a 10% chance of being exercised. Today I give them a 80%. Why, todays announcement fundamentally changes the outlook for NZO. The extra projected cashflow now gives them additional options re financing. With the current cost of capital around double figures the interest savings alone gives the NZO shareholders many millions in increased value.

I have also been watching the share trading in PRC closely, and based on the high volumes and appreciating share price of recent days one could easily assume that there is some serious activity happening in the ownership of PRC.

Does anyone know any good painters out there.

[Mick100]

Does anyone know any good painters out there.

I know of a very efficient painter - he does'nt use a brush - he just takes a mouthful of paint and sprays it on while giving investment advice.
,
.

[Nitaa]

Does anyone know any good painters out there.

Yes, Macdunk. He cant paint the most gloomiest outlook on the brightest day

[duncan macgregor]

Yes, Macdunk. He cant paint the most gloomiest outlook on the brightest day

NITA surely you mean he can paint the gloomiest picture. Be realistic take the emotion out of it, look at this in a calculated way.
In Jan 2005 the share price peaked at about $1-27 then dropped back to about 78c at its low point. In july 2007 the share price peaked at about $1-35 then dropped back to under a dollar. The share price has jumpted up to $1-12 which gives some hope to people who bought to high to get out when in profit. Over the last three years the share price has averaged about a dollar so for many its been a waste of time. The hype was just as great if not greater three years ago. Thats not the point, the point is will the herd continue playing catch up to a new high, or even get it into the $1-50 plus region to make the options worth something by july. The options were 30c at one stage making conversion for those poor mugs at $1-80 just to break even. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out, will the company get with it or not?, thats all that holds the sp back. Macdunk