NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[lissica]

The most positive thing you can read in share price movement is an up on very small volumn.Shows sellers are shy and that for any large number to change hands the price will have to be higher.

Conversely, that can be taken as 'buyers are shy and that for any large number to change hands the price will have to be lower'

Go figure ^o^

[macduffy]

Just a quiet holiday market, IMO, but then I don't hold NZO.

[digger]

Conversely, that can be taken as 'buyers are shy and that for any large number to change hands the price will have to be lower'

Go figure ^o^

No not at all. The way you put it applies when the SP is falling on small volumn.
Note since i posted earlier today the SP rose on todays largest volumn.

[fabs]

Or could be management ramping S/P up by buying shares back at top of the trading days prices.

[lissica]

No not at all. The way you put it applies when the SP is falling on small volumn.
Note since i posted earlier today the SP rose on todays largest volumn.

I don't think you can take much from small volumes, whichever direction it heads in.

Your interpretation suggests a degree of confirmation bias.

[digger]

I don't think you can take much from small volumes, whichever direction it heads in.

Your interpretation suggests a degree of confirmation bias.

Tell you a story about where this 'confirmation bias' as you put it comes from.
Way back in 1963 i was sitting in a run down youth hostle in Australia reading this first ever sharemarket book about how this guy claimed he invented moving averages and made a million dollars on the market. A lot of money way back then.How strange it was for me to be reading such a book as at the times i only had two pennies to rub together.Anyways this book had two themes it pushed---moving averages and the predicitive value of future SP directions by noticing if it went up or down on small volumn.Going down on small volumn suggested that a future buy would only then take place if the price dropped further. And the same with rises.
So back in the pre computer days and direct market manipulations so common today that thing sort of worked.Today i say it still applies if you are sure some-one is not fiddling the books.
Anyways each to his own on that subject
Cheers, over and out

[lissica]

But do you have a plausible explanation for this, aside from stating that someone else said so?

Anyway, if you're right, I'm happy. I hold NZO too :-)

[bung5]

It seems most people I talk with that are holding NZO recently are waiting for a revaluation on the outcome of PRC sale. Most expect the secured debt to be repaid and anything extra is a bonus. After that however there is not too much happening this year to keep it going unless the some of the overseas plans start moving forward

[Queenstfarmer]

The possibilities are endless..but with oil currently holding around $100/barrel, it makes for good cashflow and reasonable earnings this year.

[dsurf]

There is currently great apathy in the market torwards NZO. Institutions do not want seem interested which is understandable
due to the many capital raisings and failed drills and then the PRC disaster. The TUI downgrade was the last straw.
Investors see no point buying as there seem to be no catalysts for SP appreciation. They have ignored $100 oil which a few years ago was a major talking point.
NZO management could easily turn the negative market sentiment around with a consistent simple dividend policy that is
communicated repeatedly and is easily understood. The current dividend policy is vague, unquantified and not well received by the market.
It is "that a reasonable portion of accounting profits will be paid out".
The level of financial management this implies is one of schoolboys yet to complete finance 101 in a tertiary institution.
To start off with the "accounting profit" measure has been out of date for decades with even the most simple textbook stating that
"dividends are paid from free cashflow" after the company has retained money for investment / growth purposes.
Plenty of free cashflow was generated in FY11 but there was a huge accounting loss so the dividend was not paid.
Incredibly this bad news was released 4 months before the end of the year and helped build up negative momentum just when
the SP was already in freefall & investors already capitulating. This was serious capital mis-management.
A low SP leaves the company vulnerable to takeover and reduces borrowing capacity.
The executive owe the long suffering shareholders at least a competent performance when it comes to dividend policy
since there actions have resulted in large negative returns for shareholders, particularly in FY11.
I have a very simple solution which I hope Chris Roberts can communicate to the executive on my behalf should he agree.
A new CEO gives a chance to improve on previous practises including dividend policy.

NZO should announce with the half yearly results a new dividend policy of either:

1/ A quarterly dividend that represents 5% of profit resulting from Kupe.

This would leave 80% of the profit to be re-invested and is my preferred choice as it highlights the cashflow generating strength of Kupe

or

2/ A 1c quarterly dividend

As shareholders we should be asking for a clear dividend policy that helps the SP instead of one which continues to hold it back.