NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[fabs]

[QUOTE=Mr Tommy;376346]Its a nice concern to have, sounds good.

Spokesman Chris Roberts would not discuss the scale of the possible increase, but said preliminary figures from Origin suggested a significant increase, leaving the NZOG concerned that it had to inform the market.
''We looked at these numbers, and if anything near to them are confirmed, it does have a material impact on our company value because Kupe is such a large part of our portfolio.''




Well lets just hope the increase is relative same or preferably higher in value as the downgrading of TUI about this time last year.
S/P Took quite a caning at that time and has so far not recovered from it.

SO HERE IS HOPING.

[arjay]

They need to be careful - experience with Tui showed that the shareprice goes down further after subsequent downgrades than it goes up after similar sized upgrades.

[Chippie]

This plus the dividend will only encourage more mushrooms to buy shares. Balance is going to have his work cut out to save us all now 

P.s. It is a good thing I like mushrooms.

[Billy Boy]

Yes... Ditto from me.
Tks 777
I Emailed NZX about three years ago on that very thing.
No reply
So I wrote to them...
No reply
How can anybody buy shares in a coy like that
BB

[digger]

They need to be careful - experience with Tui showed that the shareprice goes down further after subsequent downgrades than it goes up after similar sized upgrades.

I have been buying plants and at the Morrinsville cattle sale ,so am the last to know of todays announcement. That explains why the buy back has been suspended.
My first quick assesments agrees with Arjay most of any of the other comments. So please Chris Roberts make an effort to only ungrade the reserves to what can be 90% likely to be delivered. With TUI we had 50.2 million barrels with a 50% likelyhood of delivery. Time showed that to be over the top and we sure fell from that 50.1 to 42 far more than if we had never gone up in the first place. . In this mid July assesment make small promise and large delivery the moto. Naturally I am very pleased to hear of the upgrade but to go as much as one barrel over what can be 90% delivered will come back to bite us in the you know where.

[Balance]

I have been buying plants and at the Morrinsville cattle sale ,so am the last to know of todays announcement. That explains why the buy back has been suspended.
My first quick assesments agrees with Arjay most of any of the other comments. So please Chris Roberts make an effort to only ungrade the reserves to what can be 90% likely to be delivered. With TUI we had 50.2 million barrels with a 50% likelyhood of delivery. Time showed that to be over the top and we sure fell from that 50.1 to 42 far more than if we had never gone up in the first place. . In this mid July assesment make small promise and large delivery the moto. Naturally I am very pleased to hear of the upgrade but to go as much as one barrel over what can be 90% delivered will come back to bite us in the you know where.

Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

[upside_umop]

Digger, to be fair, I think Tui was initially estimated a little less than they're getting out. Per NZOG's website:

November 2005: 26.8 mmbbls (Project sanctioned)
July 2007: 27.9 mmbbls (Pre-production)
27 August 2007: 32.0 mmbbls (Preliminary post-drilling review)
22 November 2007: 41.7 mmbbls (Detailed post-drilling reassessment)
21 May 2008: 47 mmbbls (Extension of FPSO charter)
20 June 2008: 50.1 mmbbls (Field reassessment)
25 August 2009: 50.5 mmbbls (Reserves Review)
September 2011: 41 mmbbls (Reserves Review)

[digger]

Digger, to be fair, I think Tui was initially estimated a little less than they're getting out. Per NZOG's website:

November 2005: 26.8 mmbbls (Project sanctioned)
July 2007: 27.9 mmbbls (Pre-production)
27 August 2007: 32.0 mmbbls (Preliminary post-drilling review)
22 November 2007: 41.7 mmbbls (Detailed post-drilling reassessment)
21 May 2008: 47 mmbbls (Extension of FPSO charter)
20 June 2008: 50.1 mmbbls (Field reassessment)
25 August 2009: 50.5 mmbbls (Reserves Review)
September 2011: 41 mmbbls (Reserves Review)

Yes UU it is well known that the earlier estimates were less than what has already been produced but from NOV 07 it would have been far better if no further optimist estimates were made. As Arjay has already pointed out to risk having to later backtrack does more damage than the earlier rise.

[the machine]

to bother with a reserve upgrade in this market implies to me that it will increase by at least 10% [after taking diggers 90% cap into consideration]

a rare piece of good news in this market

M

[swissboy]

The announcement at this critical time means NZO will have written in their annual results for all to see forever ( During a difficult year we managed to control our annual loss to less than 6% whereas before the upgrade discussion their negative growth was more than 9%)
Sure there will be something positive to come out mid-July but tomorrow is their financial year end. You never know with 2 days trading it might even be positive.