NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Dr_Who]

Those that sold out at $1.10 hoping to buy back at $1 may be disappointed. I have a feeling the shares will head north from here. Interesting how there are institution action happening in PRC and not in NZO.

[Nitaa]

REL: 1155 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

MINE: NZO: RECORD OIL PRODUCTION FROM TUI

Production from the Tui Area Oil Project off the Taranaki coast has set new
records.

Last week oil production from the field totalled 345,117 barrels, an average
of 49,302 barrels a day. This is the highest weekly production total to date.

On 21 November a one day record of 56,467 barrels was achieved.

Since the start of production on 30 July 2007, the Tui Area Oil Project has
produced approximately 4.7 million barrels of oil. 4.5 million barrels has
been shipped, mainly to refineries on the east coast of Australia. The next
shipment is due in early December.

These exports have contributed to record New Zealand trade figures for
August, September and October. Economists are predicting that Tui production
will add 0.3 percent to New Zealand's GDP in the September quarter.

Proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields have been
upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than the
estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was
sanctioned.

Estimated production for the 2007/08 year has been increased from 10 to at
least 11 million barrels.

New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has a 12.5% share of the Tui Area Oil
Project.

[airedale]

PRC strengthens on good volume, yet the SP of the majority shareholder NZO is written down, or barely moves.

[Dr_Who]

I may top up some more shares this week. I dont want to be left out of the party when the dancing girls get on stage.

[duncan macgregor]

I like the idea of a share buyback. At a very simplistic level, if NZO bought back half of the shares, pushing the share price over $1.50 in the process due to demand and reduced dilution of the company, thereby ensuring that the options are converted and getting $1.50 back for each option. Should keep both the option holders and the shareholders happy, reduces or prevents net dilution from option conversion, and NZO are no worse off (so long as the average buyback price is not > $1.50).

Of course, if NZO have some other plan to get the options converted (which appears is being kept to themselves if they do) ....

That would be an interesting excercize if they did buy back then cancel the shares bought to raise the share price. Get rid of the profit to make the options worth converting and end up where they started with a few happy punters. That would be a very good outcome for the shareholders if they did. Somehow i think they just dont care. i cant see to many ways other than that, given the time frame even with the massive profits rolling in to do just that. If they announced a buy back i would buy in my good self at the drop of a hat and join the blue eyed brigade for a short trip. The idea is never close your mind to reality everything is subject to change the only question is will they look after the shareholders, or not?. Macdunk

[temuk]

Here's my post from 15-11-07

dunk---

I spend hours reading this thread and I get pissed off when you think I've got alzheimers!
Please give the dog a bone.

thanks for the backup guys - much apprecited

[Nitaa]

md.. good on you me laddie. i sense a change of heart. if you cant beat then join em aye.

In the past you said you would never buy back into this stock because of management and no matter what the sp is. so now you will buy at the drop of a hat if they announce a buy back. nothing wrong with changing your mind. whether its a good investment is another matter.

no hard feelings and im sorry if i am a little rough on you but i have to say that you keep asking for it.

I praise you on your last coment that one should never close their mind and everything is subject to change. Keep that philosophy and it will put you in good stead.

Good little finish today and good to see it being on increased volume. It bodes well short term.

[Dr_Who]

Nita, I still believe that the chairman has alot to do with where the sp is today. I only have a small holding in NZO, but would otherwise have substantially more if the chairman was to announce his resignation. I topped up some more shares today, cos I believe NZO is very much under valued. I am a valued investor and buy companies that I believe is undervalue to is valuation and holds for med/long term. I didnt buy NZO cos I believe there is a possibility of a share buyback.

[Wilkins_Micawber]

I like the idea of a share buyback. At a very simplistic level, if NZO bought back half of the shares, pushing the share price over $1.50 in the process due to demand and reduced dilution of the company, thereby ensuring that the options are converted and getting $1.50 back for each option. Should keep both the option holders and the shareholders happy, reduces or prevents net dilution from option conversion, and NZO are no worse off (so long as the average buyback price is not > $1.50).

Of course, if NZO have some other plan to get the options converted (which appears is being kept to themselves if they do) ....

A further thought - if there was a share buyback and the price took off as a result of the volume being bought back (which it probably would), providing NZO didn't exceed the HIGHER of $1.50 avg price on buyback OR say $180 million in total they would be on to a winner as there would presumably then be something like 130 million options converted at $1.50 each (= $195 million income for NZO). EG. if the avg buyback price exceeded $1.50 each but they still bought back say 1/3 of the shares at an avg of say $2.06 each (roughly, 261 millions shares / 3 = 87 million bought back at $2.06 = $180 million) then get $195 million back from option conversion. Good way to spend the income they are getting now, and still have the money come back in the middle of next year.

In actual fact, it works out that the less shares they buyback the more can be spent per share on average (up to the $180 million total) eg. buyback 1/4 of the shares (65 million) at an avg not exceeding $2.76. And for the average buyback price to be say $2 then (if they started now, at $1.10) the NZO heads would probably be say $2.50 or more at completion of the buyback, and everyone would be very happy I should think (me included . Options could then be trading for $1 each !

So it seems to me that (if I am correct) they can't loose, unless they already have something else up their sleeves which will ensure the conversion of the options without having to spend money on the share buyback. With this in mind as what I think might be a good backstop nearer to option expiry date, perhaps NZO have a sure way of ensuring conversion of the options (since they must have some cash to play with soon?), so maybe pass the parcel time hasn't arrived yet ????....

[neopole]

if TR retired from the board tomorrow, and had nothing to do with the company except for his huge shareholding in the company..... not only will the share price accelerate north, but TR's wealth also........... good for him......., isnt this the best course for a company owned by shareholders?
by the way...... does anyone know how old TR is?
i wonder if TR's ego is bigger than his.......... DOH........ our company..............

but then again, TR knows more about our company than anyone else...... he did create it, albiet with shareholders money, so maybe he has a master plan to make the shareholders wealthy, so, we might think that he could share the plan with the shareholders that financed his dream............
ditto with PPP......
i wonder if GPG is still looking at the depressed share price.
i wonder if GPG is depressing the shareprice.........
i wonder if there is a game being played between RB and TR?

maybe im wondering too much, but i do know the sp of NZO should not be where it is, and TR seems rather aloof to it all.