NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[dodgy]

Good afternoon Fish, Digger and all
Its time for you guys to wake up to this and start try to influence your security's value. In my somewhat unqualified opinion ( shareholder since the 80's), Zeta and or AK (research "watchman capital") maybe trying to secure oil assets at a very low entry price. Think NZO, CUE, PPP - all common or joint, through direct or cross holdings, nominees etc? Maybe I am wrong with this but to me all the signs are there. Please do some independant research and tell me where I am going wrong.
Have a nice investing day.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder - dismayed watcher as all three shareprices head south)

[digger]

Good afternoon Fish, Digger and all
Its time for you guys to wake up to this and start try to influence your security's value. In my somewhat unqualified opinion ( shareholder since the 80's), Zeta and or AK (research "watchman capital") maybe trying to secure oil assets at a very low entry price. Think NZO, CUE, PPP - all common or joint, through direct or cross holdings, nominees etc? Maybe I am wrong with this but to me all the signs are there. Please do some independant research and tell me where I am going wrong.
Have a nice investing day.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder - dismayed watcher as all three shareprices head south)

Thanks Dodgy,
So you think we need a stir up.
First dodgy it is not just NZO,ppp and cue that are heading south. All oil companies that I know of are heading south--the big ones and the little ones. Canada is heading into a recession with the two last quarters being negative. There oil sands need about 80 to 90 to break even and in the near term that is just not going to happen.Not much salvation but thank god I am in NZO and not the tar sands of Canada.
So why this sudden turn around in the last 14 months. Well to me it is all about Russia entering Ukraine. We are sharing the same fall off in demand that the Dairy Industry is and again because of Putin in Ukraine.
Where to from here??? Saw the other day a German saying that renewals are getting so good that oil will have to fall to 7 dollars to be competative.The next speaker agreed but thought the time frame for that would be about the year 2100. Hence if you think oil is a gonner in next 10 or 20 years then NZO is way overvalued at 49 cents.However if your like me at 74 years old you have seen many up turns and downturns. But still it does mean that before we vote on any buyback we should get some idea of what oil life still may or may not exist in the coming decades. I live near Morrinsville and dispite all the carry on have not yet seen a electric car that I know of in this town.In fact I own the only self power system around these parts with solar wind and back up diesel generator. So from what I can see on the ground here in my patch it looks like oil will be around slightly longer than this German Scientist suggests.

Now next question. Why a buyback? Why not a dividend or a buy into another company? No drilling please-not at this stage anyways.To answer my own question I am against dividends as we have had our share of that for a year or so . So it sort of comes down to a buyback or a buy into another distressed oil company.
We have 338 million shares on issue and 83 in the bank . At 50 cents we could eliminate 160 million shares or just under half of those currently in the market,leaving about 178 million. Now with this quick cals I made a few assumptions. firstly that sellers would line up to meet the supply and god forbid the next two months we find that the shares could have been bought at a much lower price.Always something to keep in mind as the world is in unchartered territory. Also note that ZETA would then owned about 40% of the company. Currently the NZO thinking with CUE is that if you owned 40% of a company you in effect have full control.
I still prefer buying into another company,but can see that buybacks should be looked into.
Others thoughts
Cheers all

[fish]

Fully agree Digger.
A buy back is fine by me-as long as the shares are so cheap-maybe a maximum of 30 million shares.
I want to keep cash in our treasure chest until the excess supply over demand is reversed.

[digger]

I think we all who are interested in this company should priortize what NZO should do with the 83 million available.
Here is mine

1/ Acquisition

2/Buyback where Zeta has to sell the equivalent to remain under 20%

3/ Dividend

4/ Do nothing for now

.
.
.
.

x/ drill

x+1/ Buyback where Zeta is allowed to get control of the company without buying in directly. In other words using NZO money to give away control of the company to Zeta.

[BlackPeter]

I think we all who are interested in this company should priortize what NZO should do with the 83 million available.
Here is mine

1/ Acquisition

2/Buyback where Zeta has to sell the equivalent to remain under 20%

3/ Dividend

4/ Do nothing for now

.
.
.
.

x/ drill

x+1/ Buyback where Zeta is allowed to get control of the company without buying in directly. In other words using NZO money to give away control of the company to Zeta.

I second that order .... obviously assuming they do proper due diligence on any acquisition.

[fabs]

Buy-back without Zeta having to sell down will go through.
Co. policy before zeta came on the scene, return part of annual profit to S/H's in Div. etc;
Management clueless in taking adv.of past opportunity's, so doubtful if anything has improved there.
DOING NOTHING NOW, say for at least 3-6 months most prudent and best in the present Climate
BTW:
Not wishing to turn this Forum into a political one, but blaming Putin for mayor things going wrong in the world, way over the top.
Regarding Crimea, the proper term is REUNITING not ANNEXATION. btw:[ poles apart ]
As for Russians in Ukraine takes some explaining,
Just for the record Kiev was the capital of Russia long before ST Peterborough or Moscow for that matter.
So what does that tell you?

[dodgy]

Good afternoon Digger, Fish and all.
My question applies to NZO or any NZ listed security. Simply - can someone explain to me which NZ companies that have executed forced buy backs, and capital returns, have long term benefited by an upward re-rating of their share price? I say "forced" because all voted resolutions in NZ appear to be pre-empted by the larger corporate shareholders , generally in theirs and managements/governors best interests, and voting is only paying lip service to the smaller owner/shareholders . The specifics of moving currency and moving oil price is not as important day be day, as the preparation and forethought that management/govenance should implement prior to any event actually occuring.
Regards and happy investing
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

[BlackPeter]

Good afternoon Digger, Fish and all.
My question applies to NZO or any NZ listed security. Simply - can someone explain to me which NZ companies that have executed forced buy backs, and capital returns, have long term benefited by an upward re-rating of their share price? I say "forced" because all voted resolutions in NZ appear to be pre-empted by the larger corporate shareholders , generally in theirs and managements/governors best interests, and voting is only paying lip service to the smaller owner/shareholders . The specifics of moving currency and moving oil price is not as important day be day, as the preparation and forethought that management/govenance should implement prior to any event actually occuring.
Regards and happy investing
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

Hi dodgy,

I have no comprehensive overview of which companies are doing share buybacks and what happens with the company afterwards, but here are some examples from recent memory where the method seemed to have had good consequences for share holders:

IFT - actually, an interesting one - the SP even dropped short term, but look where they are now!
NPX - buying back for a long time ... and so far it certainly brought the SP up
CVT - admittedly still fresh, but shareholders for sure must like where the SP is going ...
TEM - maybe not quite comparable (its an investment fund), but overall do I think that the ongoing buyback there is as well in the best interest of the share holders.

So - I don't think that there is anything wrong with share buybacks in itself ... it certainly increases the EPS - and if the company does not know a better way to invest their funds, than it might be better for the directors to admit that and buy back, than just splashing the money into less profitable ventures. Sure - they can as well declare a dividend, given however that NZO has at current no imputation credits to distribute would this be from a tax perspective suboptimal.

What annoys me with the proposed NZO buyback is just that ZETA would creep towards control without paying a premium for that, and I certainly don't see how they would have the best interest of other shareholders at their mind.

Discl: holding (a wee parcel) and intend to vote against the buyback unless they offer an option which does not increases Zetas voting power.

[dodgy]

Hi dodgy,

I have no comprehensive overview of which companies are doing share buybacks and what happens with the company afterwards, but here are some examples from recent memory where the method seemed to have had good consequences for share holders:

IFT - actually, an interesting one - the SP even dropped short term, but look where they are now!
NPX - buying back for a long time ... and so far it certainly brought the SP up
CVT - admittedly still fresh, but shareholders for sure must like where the SP is going ...
TEM - maybe not quite comparable (its an investment fund), but overall do I think that the ongoing buyback there is as well in the best interest of the share holders.

So - I don't think that there is anything wrong with share buybacks in itself ... it certainly increases the EPS - and if the company does not know a better way to invest their funds, than it might be better for the directors to admit that and buy back, than just splashing the money into less profitable ventures. Sure - they can as well declare a dividend, given however that NZO has at current no imputation credits to distribute would this be from a tax perspective suboptimal.

What annoys me with the proposed NZO buyback is just that ZETA would creep towards control without paying a premium for that, and I certainly don't see how they would have the best interest of other shareholders at their mind.

Discl: holding (a wee parcel) and intend to vote against the buyback unless they offer an option which does not increases Zetas voting power.

Hi BlackPeter
Can you qualify your reply with pre buyback and after buyback share prices with quantity bought back. Obviously any asset disposals etc would make the result more volitile . I agree with you regarding Zeta/managements motivation.
Regards
-dodgy

[BlackPeter]

Hi BlackPeter
Can you qualify your reply with pre buyback and after buyback share prices with quantity bought back. Obviously any asset disposals etc would make the result more volitile . I agree with you regarding Zeta/managements motivation.
Regards
-dodgy

Hi dodgy,

just wanted to be helpful. If you need the exact numbers - just go through the relevant announcements - and time the share price. All on NZX ... or (if older than 6 months) on the relevant company websites.

cheers ...