NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

This from NZOG in mid-2018:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...884/279073.pdf
and the decision to farm-in to PEP38264 in which the announcement includes "New Zealand offers attractive fiscal terms, in a stable regulatory environment and with a transparent government" all shows how duplicitous are the talking points that OGOG are using to justify their buyback proposal.

Thanks for sharing Wiremu - it is great to review these documents (that are barely a year old) and contrast them to the current negative picture that OGOG are presenting.

Given that NZOG currently has significant equity stakes in prospects that potentially have over 30Tcf in gas alone...one will never be able to convince me that it is in my best interest to sell my NZOG shares for less than Book Value. Realistically, I would need to be offered a generous premium to the value of existing assets before I would even entertain the idea of grabbing some cash now and running.

And despite the notion that NZ has become 'too hard' now...on that matter I am calling bullsh1t. Existing permits will be honoured under the previous rules, and OGOG will make these drills happen - even if it means they need to farm-in themselves and take 50% of Clipper.

As they said when they were wrestling Zeta for control - the Barque prospect is just too damned interesting to ignore. I agreed with them then, and I agree with them now.

[fish]

Thanks for sharing Wiremu - it is great to review these documents (that are barely a year old) and contrast them to the current negative picture that OGOG are presenting.

Given that NZOG currently has significant equity stakes in prospects that potentially have over 30Tcf in gas alone...one will never be able to convince me that it is in my best interest to sell my NZOG shares for less than Book Value. Realistically, I would need to be offered a generous premium to the value of existing assets before I would even entertain the idea of grabbing some cash now and running.

And despite the notion that NZ has become 'too hard' now...on that matter I am calling bullsh1t. Existing permits will be honoured under the previous rules, and OGOG will make these drills happen - even if it means they need to farm-in themselves and take 50% of Clipper.

As they said when they were wrestling Zeta for control - the Barque prospect is just too damned interesting to ignore. I agreed with them then, and I agree with them now.

The minority shareholders are being deceived.
The true value of Barque and Ironbark are being ignored.
For instance Ironbark has a much higher chance of success that I used in my calculation to give an indication of its value.
Technology has advanced so much that the real value has increased tremendously over the last few years-Bp and OGOG are going for what are most likely going to be successful drills.

[blockhead]

Fish & Fred Dagg, there were only 150 or so a day going through each day, mostly bot trades I think, something in the wind this morning though as the last 30,000 or so have gone @ 62c.

[fish]

Fish & Fred Dagg, there were only 150 or so a day going through each day, mostly bot trades I think, something in the wind this morning though as the last 30,000 or so have gone @ 62c.

Probably just me
Fred said to pay 62 cents so I am
If you have anymore at 62 cents and want to sell I still am seeking more-and will do so for rest of day as flying out tomorrow for 2 weeks

[blockhead]

I would have kept them for a while yet but I needed $15k to get a wee pile of KTD, the NZ dairy factory on the ASX, milk or oil ???............ went for milk for the time being.

[mistaTea]

Probably just me
Fred said to pay 62 cents so I am

Someone stumping up 63c/share.

[fish]

Someone stumping up 63c/share.

Just one buyer at 62 cents-and thats me
I also have buys in at 61.5 cents
Flying out tomorrow for 2 weeks so will take off market before i go-if not traded!

[fish]

mistaTea, your comment "given the massive (many billions of dollars) upside potential" for Ironbank I thought I would try and find some measure of that upside.

On April 11 2019 Cue Energy included this in a press release: “This is an exciting time for Cue. Shareholders now have the opportunity to participate in a fully-funded well with a 21.5 percent participating interest. This is a 15tcf prospect, 50 kilometers from existing LNG infrastructure. “It will be company-changing if the well is successful.” Matthew Boyall said.

Presumably tcf means trillion cubic feet. So what is one trillion cubic feet of gas worth?

Steve Maley (Steve Maley, 40+ years of reservoir, operations, economics & management) through Quora replies as following, noting the dollars he uses are US$:

"It depends on a number of factors, including quality, location, contract delivery terms, etc.

In the U.S., the value at the wellhead is about $3.00 per million BTU, which for 1,000 BTU gas is the same as $3.00 per thousand cubic feet.
One trillion cubic feet would therefore be worth $3 billion at the wellhead (i.e., to the producer), which is kind of nonsensical because it will take a while to deliver that quantity.
If you’re contracting for delivery of LNG by tanker, you’re probably going to pay a higher price, probably one based on the energy content on a barrel of oil equivalent basis.
That would be a price closer to $9.00/mcf. The value of a 1 TCF contract delivered over a several year term would be $9 billion to the purchaser.
The cost of processing, transporting, and liquefying the gas is considerable."

Very interesting.

What is even more interesting is that BP is drilling it next year.I have been told by a very reliable source in the Industry(usa) that BP are the best at this kind of exploration and he doubted that bp would have bought in if the prospect of success was not at least 1 in 2.This astonished me but I was completely reassured that bp do not invest the kinds of sums involved in this deep drill unless this was the odds of success

[mistaTea]

What is even more interesting is that BP is drilling it next year.I have been told by a very reliable source in the Industry(usa) that BP are the best at this kind of exploration and he doubted that bp would have bought in if the prospect of success was not at least 1 in 2.This astonished me but I was completely reassured that bp do not invest the kinds of sums involved in this deep drill unless this was the odds of success

That is very interesting. I didn’t know about the 1:2 odds - but it has been very clear to me that BP think the odds of a large strike are much better than the statistical average of 20%. No way would they buy 42.5% equity and take the role as operator unless they thought there was a better than average chance of a large payoff.

I said as much in my letter to John Pagani - if Ironbark is good enough for BP, then it is good enough for me...and certainly not worthless!

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/338343

Quarterly cashflow report (+ why 62 cents is such a good price)