NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

**CD_CHCH** · 08-10-2019, 08:58 AM

While the increased offer is slightly more palatable than the original offer given the potential upsides of drilling Ironbark we would prefer to remain shareholders in NZO and as such will continue to vote against the scheme.

Our thoughts are the rewards to shareholders from a successful drilling of Ironbark far outweigh 74 cents per share.

It should also be remembered that OGOG aren't offering more out of the goodness of their heart - they obviously see huge value in NZO and its assets.

I have no idea what the final share value would be following a successful drilling programme but wouldn't be surprised if it resulted in a share price north of $5 per share, which makes 74 cents still seem a ridiculous offer. 74 cents also doesn't factor in a premium for gaining full control of NZO.

Of course each share holder must do what they consider right for their own situation.

**Sideshow Bob** · 08-10-2019, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by yabster

Horse has bolted or is that volted- 12 cents will make no difference

I think those who have voted will be unlikely to change their mind. Still below what they offered close to 2 years ago, and think they got the back up of many shareholders. A lot want to see Ironbark drilled and take their chance.

Still hope it doesn't go through and not changing my mind.

Just annoyed as going to buy more last week but because my inertia...….

**yabster** · 08-10-2019, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by trader_jackson

Well done NZ Oil and Gas holders for making a noise about this (I saw an article on NBR last night that made me think wow) - it has clearly been heard, and they have upped their price accordingly.

This will now almost certainly go through.

why do you think that?

**mistaTea** · 08-10-2019, 09:47 AM

Still a very strong NO from me.

74c per share represents a market cap of $122M.

When you consider that Kupe has been given a low end value of $24M, and 50% of Cue's current market cap is $40M....

That means they are still hoping to buy NZOG's $78M cash for $58M.

$20M or so will be spent drilling Ironbark...so if they can get the rest of the company for 74c/share it will mean they are effectively getting a free shot at Ironbark.

What kind of a loon would go for that deal?

And just because this low ball offer is some percentage above the previous low ball offer is meaningless.

**blackcap** · 08-10-2019, 09:56 AM

Yeah still a big NO from me too. They can go and get screwed as far as I am concerned. That is what happens when you make a low ball offer and get the independents to say its all ok. Puts the heckles up. That is the emotional reaction. But Mista Tea has put the rational case forward and that is why I will be voting NO. Well my existing NO will remain NO.

**mistaTea** · 08-10-2019, 10:03 AM

I was thinking earlier, about how funny it would be if we tried to apply the Northignton valuation model to everyday assets we might sell. Given they have attempted a sum of the parts calculation, but then completely confused themselves by trying to deduct OPEX and CAPEX.

Imagine you owned a motorbike that you wanted to sell to me. Now let's say we both agreed that you could objectively value the motorbike at $10,000.

"Do we have a deal, at $10K then?" you ask.

"Welllllllll," I say in a strained voice, shrugging my shoulders slightly and cocking my head to the left. "Of course, I'll have to put petrol in the stuffing thing. Then there is WOF, rego...Hell even insurance to pay for! I'm afraid we will have to make a few deductions - but do not worry mate! I will only extrapolate the costs out 8 years into the future! I will give you $7K for your $10K bike, deal?"

**Ripping** · 08-10-2019, 11:30 AM

The SOA offer price has been increased today to 74c a share (from 62c). Obviously OGOG want this, even at a 12c premium to their original offer. This gives me even more reason to stay firm with my 'NO' vote against the SOA. And weirdly, the original NZO thread disappeared from this forum.

**Sideshow Bob** · 08-10-2019, 11:33 AM

Originally Posted by Ripping

The SOA offer price has been increased today to 74c a share (from 62c). Obviously OGOG want this, even at a 12c premium to their original offer. This gives me even more reason to stay firm with my 'NO' vote against the SOA. And weirdly, the original NZO thread disappeared from this forum.

Very weird it has disappeared, but think I can guess why...….

**Lion** · 08-10-2019, 11:38 AM

Quote from Ripping "And weirdly, the original NZO thread disappeared from this forum."

Yeah, strange. Conspiracy?? Probably not. (P.S. well why do you think that, SS Bob?)

I'm not changing my vote from a big fat NO either, and I'd be surprised if many will. Certainly not the bigger holders who post here.

If this really is the Co's final offer, then I'm pleased - it means I can keep my NZOG shares for the Ironbark drill.
But then, we have seen how OGOG can change their minds about things - like keeping NZOG listed.

All's fair in love and war, the saying goes, and I suppose for business too.