NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[tim23]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

[mistaTea]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

I think 84c would give them a 50/50 shot at it. Could well be enough to get the deal over the line as ACC are likely to go for it.

I know of a large block of shares though who wouldn't even look at the offer unless it at least began with a 9.

I suspect this really is the full and final offer though. OGOG are happy to pay a price that effectively gives them a free shot at Ironbark...but once you start getting into the 85c+ region they would actually be paying a fair price for the existing assets. Then, if Ironbark was not successful the cash spent drilling would be a loss to them (since they did not get the $24M cash earmarked for the drill for free by purchasing the business for a discount to NTA).

They can buy on market up to 5% of the total shares outstanding per annum I think. If the SP stays low, perhaps they will do this instead to increase their exposure to Ironbark. Clearly not their preferred option, but there are two separate financial years between now and the drill...so I guess they could potentially pick up another 10% of the total shares if they wanted to.

[digger]

Agree - need another 10c at least!

Hope not. They have promised if we stop this 74 cents one there will be no further price rise offer. Probably means that there will be no more higher offers under the scheme of arrangments. OGOG could then then offer higher under the normal takeover. I am suprised they did not do that in the first instance as it is more logical and would get them some soft sellers taking part without the larger holders having to organize a block. Under the scheme of arrangments we have to block or else the combined weight of small holders can take us all down.
Anyways if we can stop this 74 cents lowball offer I hope they will bugger off and we can all share in the drill. We would be doing OGOG a favor by blocking this second offer afterall there is only a 5% chance of success if you can believe OGOG.. There are still people who believe in a flat earth so there will probable be still people who believe anything OGOG says.

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-heral...-prospect-work

I find this article interesting.

Who knows what is actually going on down there - I am sure minoroty holders will be the last to ever find out.

However, it's not what Pagani is saying...it's what he is NOT saying. His comment is the bare minimum, which makes me think there could be more going on.

How much more? Who knows.

I wonder why those two supply vessels are wasting their time down that part of the world anyway. Northington have already clarified that Clipper is worthless.

[BWH]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-heral...-prospect-work

I find this article interesting.

Who knows what is actually going on down there - I am sure minoroty holders will be the last to ever find out.

However, it's not what Pagani is saying...it's what he is NOT saying. His comment is the bare minimum, which makes me think there could be more going on.

How much more? Who knows.

I wonder why those two supply vessels are wasting their time down that part of the world anyway. Northington have already clarified that Clipper is worthless.

These are the two vessels which were contracted to work with the COSL Prospector in Taranaki. They drilled one well for Tamarind and then ran out of money it seems, so are now waiting for OMV to take over. They will drill some holes in Taranaki and then maybe take the rig down to drill in the GSB. There is debate as to whether they will use the rig or get a drillship in from what I understand. The two ships are simply laid up there with a minimum crew, as there is no room in New Plymouth or Nelson for long term lay-up.

[mistaTea]

These are the two vessels which were contracted to work with the COSL Prospector in Taranaki. They drilled one well for Tamarind and then ran out of money it seems, so are now waiting for OMV to take over. They will drill some holes in Taranaki and then maybe take the rig down to drill in the GSB. There is debate as to whether they will use the rig or get a drillship in from what I understand. The two ships are simply laid up there with a minimum crew, as there is no room in New Plymouth or Nelson for long term lay-up.

Indeed. All true.

However with this lot you can never be sure anymore about what else is happening behind the scenes.

For example, it would not surprise me at all if NZOG were in advanced farm-in discussions (potentially with OGOG farming in directly themselves). That they would wait to get the SoA through and then a month or two later sign and announce a deal to commit to the Barque drill.

So when I read tight-lipped replies like that from Pagani...it doesn't necessarily make me jump to conspiracy theories etc, however it does make me question what is going on.

[mistaTea]

They could save a lot of money right away by sacking Andrew, and adding NZOG as another channel to Alistair McGregors duties as CEO of OGOG. Pay him an extra $250K higher duties allowance and we bank a saving of $600K.

We would get the exact same business outcomes we are currently getting only Andrew won’t have his snout in the trough.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...ectid=12282174

David McLean is getting paid far too much in my view.

However, the man is overseeing a business that has produced over NZ$1B in cash earnings this past year.

How the Hell does Andrew Jeffries command a salary equal to approx one third of McLean's obscene earnings again?

Christ, you could pay me a lot less than $850K to sit on cash and go along with whatever OGOG tell me to do. Money for jam.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12282208

A different point of view - Gavin Evans paints a grim picture.

Though my position is unchanged, it is good to get different perspectives.

[blackcap]

Behind the paywall but this is very interesting:

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/activist...r-nzo-takeover

Briefly Activist investor James Dunphy insists the valuation methods in the independent report were so flawed as to be false and has called on the panel to hold an inquiry under Section 32 of the Takeovers Act to examine the evidence under oath.

The former investment banker has now published a presentation of his analysis on his website, makethemaccountable.com.au

[blackcap]

http://makethemaccountable.com.au/20...pt-oggs-offer/

Some pretty interesting stuff in the NBR article and some great points in above link (free) about valuation methodologies.