NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

70 cents now and not many shares on offer at less than 85 cents

According to Mr Market I am much wealthier today than I was on Friday. Even though nothing has actually changed for the business so far as I can tell.

To think, they still teach Efficient Market Theory! Remarkable really.

[fish]

According to Mr Market I am much wealthier today than I was on Friday. Even though nothing has actually changed for the business so far as I can tell.

To think, they still teach Efficient Market Theory! Remarkable really.

If Ironbark is successful you will be millions wealthier if the market prices in the Billions Ironbark will be worth
If unsuccessful according to market theory and Northingtons report only a tiny bit less wealthy as the money for the drill has already been escrewed and Ironbark has little value.
Even though we are told there will be no further takeover offer I do wonder if OGOG may reconsider in light of global events.They certainly are unlikely to try another scheme of arrangement.

[fish]

Whether or not 'Global Warming' (or whatever you want to call it) is responsible for the latest bush fires, I imagine the Aussie government is going to be under sustained renewed pressure to speed up their transition to cleaner fuels. The warming climate certainly hasn't helped, that's for sure. The footage I have seen is bloody awful to watch - I really feel for them.

If there is a lot more pressure on their well-regarded and much-loved PM, I agree - when he is not surfing in Hawaii he will look to gas as the most likely stepping stone in a decades-long transition to lower emissions. Perhaps that will help generate more interest in the NZO stock as we get closer to drill.

Especially after Beach confirmed recently they don't do frontier exploration unless there is a 1/4 - 1/3 probability of commercial success minimum. Given their jubilance (shared by our CEO until recently for some strange reason...) we can assume the estimated success rate for Ironbark exceeds this.

Not a given that it will be successful later this year by any means - but if you are in the hydrocarbon exploration business, these are the best odds you could ever hope for really.

The recent Beach Annual Report you mention makes a total lie of the view expressed by NZO Directors .They claimed that when CUE (was it Andrew Jefferies at the good oil conference) stated a 1 in 4 chance of success this was only of finding hydrocarbons but commercial success was only in reality a 1 in 20 chance .Furthermore the Beach report had no effect on the market price of NZO .In a truly efficient market believing company statements-and there is no reason to for any bias in the Beach annual report in contrast to NZO statements-we could have expected the NZO share price to increase significantly .One can only conclude that the recent volatility in the NZO share price has been a product of factors that the market cannot efficiently price.In other words the share price cannot be taken as a fair and reasonable reflection of the value of NZO .

[Wiremu]

Interesting and relevant article from the Herald:

https://www.pressreader.com/new-zeal...81977494551330

[Sideshow Bob]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

[fish]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

Yes
IMHO The Takeovers panel will accept whatever reasons they give for coming back

[blackcap]

Could OCOG be back in the market? Are they allowed??

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

[fish]

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

I feel confident that they will not take this route.
Ironbark is scheduled to begin drilling anytime from april but more likely in the 3rd quarter this year.
Historically once a drill starts the sp rises-the "thrill of the drill"
Hence if they make another offer it is more likely to be sooner than later and the offer would have to be good enough to get 90% of the total shares-since they already have 70% they only need another 20% to have a successful takeove and get more cash from NZO coffers than they would have to pay for the outstanding 30% shares by my rough estimate(which could be wrong as we do not know how much they would have to pay)

[Fabs37]

Not 100% sure how this works but under the creep provisions they are allowed to purchase up to 5% per year without invoking a full TO. With every 1% that they cross ie from 70.2% to 71.0001% they have to inform the market that they have been buying. So if they have been then once they hit 71% we will know it is them. Not sure it that is the route they (OGOG) want to take as it would just take forever.

Could also of course have acquired a Percentage over the last 2 years via surrogates and still continuing doing so???
Also there my be some shills on this forum who knows, lets wait and see how this unfolds???

[Marilyn Munroe]

If the Tawhaki-1, shortly to be spudded-in, drill off the Otago Coast becomes a discovery it will turn the area from a frontier region to highly prospective. I expect this would cast a positive glow towards NZO's Barque prospect.

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star...h-island-coast

Boop boop de do
Marilyn