NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

Some speculation on HotCopper that the pre-drill price for Cue could rocket to as high as 30c (which would be a market cap of ~$200M).

Any thoughts on the type of price action NZOG might see?
Based on experience from previous big drills?

[fish]

Some speculation on HotCopper that the pre-drill price for Cue could rocket to as high as 30c (which would be a market cap of ~$200M).

Any thoughts on the type of price action NZOG might see?
Based on experience from previous big drills?

We have never in my experience seen a drill this size and with such a chance of success .
Trading over the last few months has been on small volumes but perhaps in response to news of the October drill start we are seeing a big rise in CUE and small increase in NZO
If my maths is correct for each NZO share ,NZO owns 2 CUE shares.
So if CUE rockets up another 16 cents each NZO would be worth another 32 cents .
Then if we account for the NZO direct participation of the drill a slightly smaller amount-?27 cents.
It is easy to see the possibility of hitting over $1 in the next 10 weeks-pre-drill .
The real action will start if hints of success during the drill .

[Lion]

Interesting depth right now. Only 1097 shares for sale below 80c!

[mistaTea]

Interesting depth right now. Only 1097 shares for sale below 80c!

I'm backing the dude (possibly dudette I guess...) who wants $1 a pop for their 10 shares!

GET IN THERE BOY!

[Lion]

We have never in my experience seen a drill this size and with such a chance of success .
Trading over the last few months has been on small volumes but perhaps in response to news of the October drill start we are seeing a big rise in CUE and small increase in NZO
If my maths is correct for each NZO share ,NZO owns 2 CUE shares.
So if CUE rockets up another 16 cents each NZO would be worth another 32 cents .
Then if we account for the NZO direct participation of the drill a slightly smaller amount-?27 cents.
It is easy to see the possibility of hitting over $1 in the next 10 weeks-pre-drill .
The real action will start if hints of success during the drill .

I did the maths in more detail, fish, and you are pretty close at that 2 for one. Here's my arithmetic, but of course, the market is rarely rational:



CUE have 698,000,000 shares on issue
NZO have 164,430,718 shares on issue


1c change for CUE increases their MC by about $A7M, say NZ$7.4m.
Half of that goes to NZO, adding to their MC. Divide $3.7m by 164.m shares gives 2.25c per NZO share.

[mistaTea]

Only 97 shares on offer for less than 72c now Lion...

[Lion]

Only 97 shares on offer for less than 72c now Lion...

Yes, I was just about to get em but a seller of 308 ducked in. I only have $100 in my account! Never mind. Anyone else?

[mistaTea]

Not that I usually care about short-term price fluctuations...but it has been interesting watching the trades today (low volumes though they are).

Right now the depth indicates that nobody is prepared to sell any more shares for less than 65c.

Well, that is already 3c/share higher than the 'compelling' offer OGOG started off with.

They ended up lifting to 74c...but the market is likely to exceed that before long as we get closer to the drill. Given the prospects (of which Ironbark was essentially a done deal even before OGOG launched the takeover...) within 12 months of their offer the SP was always likely to exceed what they were prepared to pay for the whole business.

Patience pays off - by just sitting tight and doing nothing for another year...those who have no intention of sticking around to the bitter end of this drill will likely get much more for their shares if they choose to sell on Market than the benevolent OGOG were willing to pay.

[Getty]

Good point there Mista.
By making such a low offer, OGOG must have thought the shareholders were Ironbarking mad

[Lion]

By making such a low offer, OGOG must have thought the shareholders were Ironbarking mad

Yes, and now it's looking like an (almost) Iron-clad guarantee of riches for we shareholders.

(I know the probability of success is still not that great, but why let a good pun go to waste??)

I'd love to know what the talk is round the NZOG office and board room these days. Do they wish they'd been more generous with their S of A offer??
CUE must be pretty happy though.
We don't hear anything of Mahato these days. Small compared to Ironbark, but not insignificant. Has it gone to court anywhere, does anyone know?