NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[mistaTea]

Good meeting I thought, sounds like we have some decent options IF ironbark results in a discovery.

I liked Andrew's analogy about sucking into an Olympic Pool with a long straw and trying to figure out how big it is.

Let's hope they can buy a producing asset with upside very soon - we have been waiting a while. Don't want to be hasty and overpay - but enough is enough. Buy something or, if you can't, give the shareholders the cash via tax free capital return (30c/share).

Ms Sharif's comments were measured - a stark contrast to Mr Dunphy imo. Neither candidate has a hope in Hell of being elected, but if we were to elect a new independent director I would want someone who can have a constructive relationship with The Board - and, in my view, Mr Dunphy can't.

Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

[BigBob]

Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

Didn't follow the meeting, but the comment is also on the last page of the Annual Meeting Presentation released today...: "We have a month and a bit to wait before we find out if there is a discovery there. If it is a success, it will be a company changer."

So maybe an early xmas present...?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...566/334269.pdf

[blackcap]

Good meeting I thought, sounds like we have some decent options IF ironbark results in a discovery.


Anyway, onwards and upwards. Andrew made a comment that it would only be "a month and a bit" until we knew if there was a discovery. Did I hear that right? The drilling announcement said 85 days was expected - so that would take us to January?

Or are they likely to know if they have discovered something before the drilling has finished?

I like the options Andrew outlined if a discovery. Month and a bit is 40-50? days. Maybe they get indications of gas shows on the way down? I am no expert so comments on this issue welcomed. So going on 50 days it will be before Christmas potentially!!

[mistaTea]

I like the options Andrew outlined if a discovery. Month and a bit is 40-50? days. Maybe they get indications of gas shows on the way down? I am no expert so comments on this issue welcomed. So going on 50 days it will be before Christmas potentially!!

Hopefully Santa turns up this year and shows me his incredibly large sack!

[mistaTea]

Resolution 5:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Mr J Dunphy be elected as a director
For: 2,171,596 [1.75%] Against: 122,270,212 [98.25%] Abstain: 1,308,824
The resolution was therefore not carried.
Resolution 6:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Ms S Sharif be elected as a director
For: 2,514,318 [2.01%] Against: 122,426,833 [ 97.99%] Abstain: 809,481
The resolution was therefore not carried.

Even the vast majority of minority shareholders voted AGAINST.

My view is that minority holders just want to move forward now, bigger things to focus on like Ironbark and other opportunities. I hope that the 'noise' goes away now.

[Sideshow Bob]

Turned my XXXXXXS holding into XXXS holding on Monday.

Lets see how that turns out.......

[mistaTea]

write up in NBR: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/acc-join...directors-quit

[digger]

Resolution 5:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Mr J Dunphy be elected as a director
For: 2,171,596 [1.75%] Against: 122,270,212 [98.25%] Abstain: 1,308,824
The resolution was therefore not carried.
Resolution 6:
ELECTION OF DIRECTORS
That Ms S Sharif be elected as a director
For: 2,514,318 [2.01%] Against: 122,426,833 [ 97.99%] Abstain: 809,481
The resolution was therefore not carried.

Even the vast majority of minority shareholders voted AGAINST.

My view is that minority holders just want to move forward now, bigger things to focus on like Ironbark and other opportunities. I hope that the 'noise' goes away now.

I didn't even bother with the vote or the AGM. As we sorted out last year there is no real vote unless the major holder stands back and lets the minor holders pick their own directors. Then we would have some chance of calling such an outcome independent. Guess it will take govt action to make any moves in that direction and until that happens we are at the mercy of the controlling shareholder.
The voting results are what was to be expected----in fact better as I saw no point in getting Dumphy in.


Now for that drill. If successful we may well all have to come together again to make sure our minor shareholders interest are looked after.
Cheers all and a very successful christmas

[Waikaka]

Great news that IronBark-1 has spudded, always an achievement getting these things consented and over the line. No matter what happens from here BP have done well, I think it is their first Australian operated exploration well for about 10 years so well done to Cue for sticking with farming it out for so long. First granted to Cue in 2012, so credit to Cue as well, got to admire their hustle.

Always exciting and wish all the best but just remember Ironbark-1 is significantly deeper North Rankin and Gorgon gas condensate fields and so has significant chance that reservoir quality is impacted with reduced porosity and permeability. I suspect this could well delay the results of the drill, as further research will be needed.

So while Ironbark-1 has it risks it is always good to finish on a high note. Australia has pretty thorough worst case planning outlines in their environmental drilling plans. They are always a good read as the engineers look at a worst case blow out scenarios. Conveniently for shareholders you can all think of this as a best case scenario (not the blow out but the flow rates). Of course you wont see these rates as the choke and drill string thin greatly by the time you get to reservoir and is no where near 12 inch hole but shows that in a best case these reservoirs can really deliver.

They used the Goodwyn gas field as the closest to Ironbark-1 and came out with:
" Assuming that the well is flowing through unobstructed 12 ¼” open hole and 13 5/8” casing string, it is estimated that the initial flowrate is 91,793bbl/day (condensate rate), 11,504bbl/day (water rate) and 1,541MMscf/day (gas rate)."

Taken from page 28 of https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/co...nment-plan.pdf

Maui-2 first flowed at 40MMscf/d.

[fish]

Great news that IronBark-1 has spudded, always an achievement getting these things consented and over the line. No matter what happens from here BP have done well, I think it is their first Australian operated exploration well for about 10 years so well done to Cue for sticking with farming it out for so long. First granted to Cue in 2012, so credit to Cue as well, got to admire their hustle.

Always exciting and wish all the best but just remember Ironbark-1 is significantly deeper North Rankin and Gorgon gas condensate fields and so has significant chance that reservoir quality is impacted with reduced porosity and permeability. I suspect this could well delay the results of the drill, as further research will be needed.

So while Ironbark-1 has it risks it is always good to finish on a high note. Australia has pretty thorough worst case planning outlines in their environmental drilling plans. They are always a good read as the engineers look at a worst case blow out scenarios. Conveniently for shareholders you can all think of this as a best case scenario (not the blow out but the flow rates). Of course you wont see these rates as the choke and drill string thin greatly by the time you get to reservoir and is no where near 12 inch hole but shows that in a best case these reservoirs can really deliver.

They used the Goodwyn gas field as the closest to Ironbark-1 and came out with:
" Assuming that the well is flowing through unobstructed 12 ¼” open hole and 13 5/8” casing string, it is estimated that the initial flowrate is 91,793bbl/day (condensate rate), 11,504bbl/day (water rate) and 1,541MMscf/day (gas rate)."

Taken from page 28 of https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/co...nment-plan.pdf

Maui-2 first flowed at 40MMscf/d.

Thanks for the very informative post and link .
I found the estimated flow rate based on Goodwyn on page 13 (not 28 )