NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[SPC]

Agree concerning prior ogog offer.
We were told that ironbark was effectively worthless and the Ofer offer reflected this. Minority holders baukled noting that NTA (cash in bank plus assets) were still worth more, AND the fact that ogog were intent on drilling regardless suggested that the company was under priced even with ironbark at $0 value. Nothing has changed with the ironbark result so presumably still a 'good offer' at 72+...let's see how credible ogog are now..

[trader_jackson]

looks like holders should have taken the takeover offer at 74c afterall...NZO (unfortunately) have a history (at least in the last 5 or so years) of providing disappointing returns and/or results... doubt there'll be any takeover offer now, but for holders sake, I hope there is, anything above 60c should probably be considered rather than 'auto rebuked' like the previous (74c) offer was.

Disclosure: ex holder, sold out in late 2016

[Sideshow Bob]

Ahhhh bugger.

[nztx]

Ahhhh bugger.

dont tell anyone -- but it aint completely ..

[mistaTea]

What a ride!

A damn shame Ironbark did not come through, but this is a Big Boys game and we all knew the risk.

Based on my low purchase price I essentially got a crack at Ironbark for free. This is what made the investment play so attractive to me - Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose.

All one can do is make the best and most logical decisions based on the facts before them.

Retrospective analysis along the lines of “I should have sold more earlier” or “Boy am I silly for not taking OGOG up on their SOA!!” are pointless (and weak thinking imho).

If one had done either of those things and then Ironbark came through it would have been even more agonising to think of what could have been.

All you can ever do is assess the information at the time and try to make an informed choice based on your investment philosophy and risk tolerance.

It is the end of the road for me with NZO now. I have long said that, in my view, the only interesting thing about NZO was Ironbark. Clipper isn’t happening (and has a very different risk-reward profile anyway), and the company only has about $50M sitting in the bank that can be invested - something they have failed to do for the last few years.
Could OGOG make an offer for the rest of the shares? Maybe, but I would never hold shares hoping for a takeover (and I somehow doubt OGOG would offer 62c again - a market cap of $102M for a company that has very limited prospects).
I think the “rebuild” from here (if there is one) will be long and painful, and in the meantime I don’t fancy continuing to pay management the obscene sums they get for very little return.

Liquidation may be the best route - but that would probably only generate a few more cents per share compared to where the SP is now.

Maybe NZO will buy a slice of Kupe back from Genesis. But then I don’t think Genesis are going to sell that asset for a bargain, so the return would not be spectacular.

The road ahead is so unclear, with so many ifs and maybes. As such, it no longer meets investment grade as I can no longer say I understand the Business Case.

I regret nothing though, and would do it all again if a similar “Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose” opportunity arose.

Those are my thoughts for what they are worth - good luck to remaining holders.

[arjay]

Retrospective analysis along the lines of “I should have sold more earlier” or “Boy am I silly for not taking OGOG up on their SOA!!” are pointless (and weak thinking imho).

If one had done either of those things and then Ironbark came through it would have been even more agonising to think of what could have been.

This is a good point and for some investors it can be a lose-lose ‘heads I should have bought more, tails I should have sold earlier’. For me it was the most fun ride since Hochstetter. It will be interesting to see some analysis of the drill and I hope BP et al give a post-drill appraisal of the geology encountered.

Maybe NZO will now become one of those attractive takeover opportunities they’ve been looking for since the GFC😊

[Fabs37]

This is a good point and for some investors it can be a lose-lose ‘heads I should have bought more, tails I should have sold earlier’. For me it was the most fun ride since Hochstetter. It will be interesting to see some analysis of the drill and I hope BP et al give a post-drill appraisal of the geology encountered.

Maybe NZO will now become one of those attractive takeover opportunities they’ve been looking for since the GFC😊

As in a previous posting, this paned out almost exactly as 20 years ago with Hochstetter.

Quite a bit of UP & DOWN Ramping by some Forum members

Hochstetter from 66c to below 30c post drill result.

Ironbark 75c to maybe below 30c too??

QUO VADIS- NZOG- from here??

Nowhere in a hurry, since it has been a VERY lucrative Cash Cow for many years for the few
in control.
SO NO NEED TO CHANGE A WINNING fORMULA.

[airedale]

Ahhhh bugger.

C'est la vie.

[whatsup]

What a ride!

A damn shame Ironbark did not come through, but this is a Big Boys game and we all knew the risk.

Based on my low purchase price I essentially got a crack at Ironbark for free. This is what made the investment play so attractive to me - Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose.

All one can do is make the best and most logical decisions based on the facts before them.

Retrospective analysis along the lines of “I should have sold more earlier” or “Boy am I silly for not taking OGOG up on their SOA!!” are pointless (and weak thinking imho).

If one had done either of those things and then Ironbark came through it would have been even more agonising to think of what could have been.

All you can ever do is assess the information at the time and try to make an informed choice based on your investment philosophy and risk tolerance.

It is the end of the road for me with NZO now. I have long said that, in my view, the only interesting thing about NZO was Ironbark. Clipper isn’t happening (and has a very different risk-reward profile anyway), and the company only has about $50M sitting in the bank that can be invested - something they have failed to do for the last few years.
Could OGOG make an offer for the rest of the shares? Maybe, but I would never hold shares hoping for a takeover (and I somehow doubt OGOG would offer 62c again - a market cap of $102M for a company that has very limited prospects).
I think the “rebuild” from here (if there is one) will be long and painful, and in the meantime I don’t fancy continuing to pay management the obscene sums they get for very little return.

Liquidation may be the best route - but that would probably only generate a few more cents per share compared to where the SP is now.

Maybe NZO will buy a slice of Kupe back from Genesis. But then I don’t think Genesis are going to sell that asset for a bargain, so the return would not be spectacular.

The road ahead is so unclear, with so many ifs and maybes. As such, it no longer meets investment grade as I can no longer say I understand the Business Case.

I regret nothing though, and would do it all again if a similar “Heads I win, Tails I don’t lose” opportunity arose.

Those are my thoughts for what they are worth - good luck to remaining holders.

Well said mT my thoughts entirely.

[Joshuatree]

Happy Xmas to all on board.
We are nearly at our destination and I feel relaxed we are in good hands thanks to BP and the NZO team particularly Andrew Jefferies .
Looks like we will arrive safely-do not expect fireworks to mark this.
There will be no flaring and not even a test of gas flow rates.
Just a mtb probe to measure the hydrocarbons in the formation fluid .
Information about success will be tightly held until announced .
I am very biased but feel we are riding a success wave (as must be all the buyers of CUE-the sp has tripled this year )

Easy come easy go?