NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Sideshow Bob]

[QUOTE=RTM;976918]

I hope you are right…but I am not holding my breath !

I think if you'd had been holding your breath with NZO, would have expired a lonnnggggg time ago!!

Some companies are just perennial under-deliverers.....

[fish]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;975364]

No I'm a realist .. maybe you haven't spoken with many Energy-resources companies mgmt. before but I can promise you they all only talk the positive ..the market however does what it does ... $30Gj - $40Gj is completely insane levels .... only last year Aus east coast Nat gas broke a record just over $10Gj

At present in Canada (which has massive Gas resources) they have seen major increase in gas prices YOY JUNE to C$6.53Gj

WA Aussie A$5.56Gj ..https://www.afr.com/companies/energy...0220902-p5bete

East coast gas prices in the June quarter ranged from an average of $6.36/GJ to $29.85/GJ, EnergyQuest said, with the bottom of the range marked by the average price received for domestic gas by Origin Energy in the quarter, while the top of the range was the Adelaide wholesale price at $29.85/GJ.

I'd be very surprised if NZO/CUE/CTP can get $30Gj contracted Gas .... yes small amounts on the spot market while the EAST coast has supply issues ... but LNG exporting terminals are getting built ....pipelines installed to fill the high priced markets ...

THe annual report today confirms you have got this wrong.
Average price since they started in may selling in the spot market is $34 for uncontracted gas .
ATM only 20% is uncontracted but will shortly be most until the 2025 Shell contract commences
This has helped increase net profit to 10 cents a share.
EPS next year should be phenomenal .
Are you sure you are not buying ?

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=fish;976898]

It is not a new discovery but it is likely a big success .
Gas flow is likely to be large and the infrastructure is all in place to ship it at World LPG prices for years to come.
NZO have said they will start paying dividends as soon as cash flows are positive which will be in a few months .
Even if they only pay 10% of cash flow as dividend it will be a large and regular dividend.
I might have to retire from my day job to manage this.

This what NZO/CUE mgmt told you ?? they will be getting on the LNG export train? really ... Dividends yes they have the cash would be a start to give S/H's some hope of decent returns .. You do know that only a small percent of the GAS heads to the higher east coast spot gas market .. they do send much of the gas to Darwin much lower gas prices and to a local power plant also lower contract gas price ...

Some recent Aus Gas news


https://www.theguardian.com/australi...nter-shortfall


https://www.afr.com/companies/energy...0220801-p5b65t

Much of the gas is in the north when it’s needed south
A contributing factor is that much of the gas is in the wrong location. The “excess” uncontracted Qld gas needs to be transported south to NSW and Victoria, and that runs into problems with storage and pipeline capacity.

The ACCC says that, “over the longer term, changes in the location of gas supply and demand centres will continue to affect the demand of gas transportation and storage services.

>>>>>And where is NZO/CUE Gas coming from NT AUS maybe you don't understand just how far away >>

NT: Amadeus Gas Pipeline

The Amadeus Gas Pipeline (AGP) (previously known as the Amadeus Basin to Darwin Pipeline, ABDP) is a transmission pipeline owned and operated by the APA Group through its wholly owned subsidiary APT Pipelines NT Pty Ltd. In June 2011, APA purchased the AGP from a consortium of financial institutions who had leased the pipeline to the Amadeus Gas Trust. Prior to June 2011, NT Gas managed and operated the pipeline for the trust and APA held a 96 per cent interest in both the Amadeus Gas Trust and NT Gas.

The AGP was commissioned in 1986. It transports gas to Darwin, Katherine and other locations principally to fuel electricity generation in the Northern Territory. The pipeline is 1,658 km in length (including laterals). When built, gas flowed northwards to Darwin from the Palm Valley and Mereenie gas fields in the Amadeus Basin. However, since 2008 natural gas from the Blacktip gas field in the Bonaparte basin also feeds into the AGP from the Bonaparte Gas Pipeline. This gas flows north to Darwin and south towards Alice Springs.

I bet if NZO/CUE start making the mega dollars pushing major volumes through APA's owned pipeline they will be keen to lift rates to get their cut of the mega dollars you dream of !!

[fish]

Thanks for the links to the news about the heads of agreement.
Great news-the big exporters have agreed not to charge the domestic market more than the international market price.
I have been trying to tell you for sometime that the historic prices for gas you quote are no longer valid.
Yes gas prices of 30 to 40 are insane but that is the reality and the best indicator of gas prices to come.
So the current price of gas is 5 times last year.
NZo net profit is 10 cents a share what is your prediction for next year?

[JBmurc]

Thanks for the links to the news about the heads of agreement.
Great news-the big exporters have agreed not to charge the domestic market more than the international market price.
I have been trying to tell you for sometime that the historic prices for gas you quote are no longer valid.
Yes gas prices of 30 to 40 are insane but that is the reality and the best indicator of gas prices to come.
So the current price of gas is 5 times last year.
NZo net profit is 10 cents a share what is your prediction for next year?

I'll let you dream away .. and wait for the proof ..I hope for your sake and all the long suffering NZO/CUE S/Hs they do well >>

[fish]

I'll let you dream away .. and wait for the proof ..I hope for your sake and all the long suffering NZO/CUE S/Hs they do well >>

Thank you.
You still have it wrong.
I suspect anyone still thinking I am dreaming has not read yesterdays annual report and recent nzx announcements .
So important in investing to find the truth and know what is not a dream .
Hope your dreams with melbana energy turn out better than your other recent investments-but I do not like what I see happening.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Sideshow Bob;977087]

I think if you'd had been holding your breath with NZO, would have expired a lonnnggggg time ago!!

Some companies are just perennial under-deliverers.....

Just wondering if you have read the annual report-released 2 days ago -makes good reading-I like what they are doing-ogog directors and Andrew Jefferies have transformed the company .
It’s more than facts and figures.

However to refute the claim of being perennial under-deliverers Maybe the perception you have arises from the market and investors like jbmurc are speculators and are unable to calculate perennial value.
Personally when investing I look for value the market has missed.
FOR instance NTA is 96 cents and this understates todays value with high gas prices.
The contract with shell is for 0.6 pj which is 600,000 gj commencing 2025.
Say this is sold in the meantime and returns $30 net back=18 million australian.
you only have to look at the rest of their sales to see that the current share price of 43 cents is likely very soon to be earned in a year

[RTM]

[QUOTE=fish;977493]

Just wondering if you have read the annual report-released 2 days ago -makes good reading-I like what they are doing-ogog directors and Andrew Jefferies have transformed the company .
It’s more than facts and figures.

However to refute the claim of being perennial under-deliverers Maybe the perception you have arises from the market and investors like jbmurc are speculators and are unable to calculate perennial value.
Personally when investing I look for value the market has missed.
FOR instance NTA is 96 cents and this understates todays value with high gas prices.
The contract with shell is for 0.6 pj which is 600,000 go commencing 2025.
Say this is sold in the meantime and returns $30 net back=18 million australian.
you only have to look at the rest of their sales to see that the current share price of 43 cents is likely very soon to be earned in a year

Thanks for the reminder.
And I just see this pop up in the announcements....
"Palm Valley 12 Update – Interim Flow Test Result"
Sounds positive as well.

I guess on a personal basis, irrespective of what I am seeing, I am not quite sure when I will see a benefit, dividend or share price growth.
I don't really care which.

On a side note...the post you have quoted is attributable to RTM.
Should have been Sideshow Bob...seems Share Trader has its nickers in a twist ?

[SPC]

I hope those turkeys the CEO mentions roasting in today's update aren't the shareholders such myself who have been waiting along time at the table for a few crumbs. It's getting awfully hot in here..

[fish]

I hope those turkeys the CEO mentions roasting in today's update aren't the shareholders such myself who have been waiting along time at the table for a few crumbs. It's getting awfully hot in here..

No worries.
The gas is going to the market in time to cook those turkeys.
Likely high returns at todays lpg prices