NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[fish]

It will be interesting to see who ends up with the OMV assets. It is doubtful that NZOG and/or Cue have enough uncommitted cash to do so, that being the case do we see OGOG go it on their own?

how much do you think omv will settle for-?several hundred millions
Out of NZo league as you suggest .
OGOG might be interested in which case will they be making another takeover offer for NZO?

[blackcap]

how much do you think omv will settle for-?several hundred millions
Out of NZo league as you suggest .
OGOG might be interested in which case will they be making another takeover offer for NZO?

If NZO are interested, could they not do a large rights issue? That is what I would be doing if I were OGOG. That will enable them to increase their stake in NZO by stealth.

[fish]

If NZO are interested, could they not do a large rights issue? That is what I would be doing if I were OGOG. That will enable them to increase their stake in NZO by stealth.

Possibly-but they have just done one-and another one in the same financial year seems very unlikely-and surely this would be such a major transaction that minority rights would apply ?
Another take over offer at say 62 cents would probably succeed this time-Ironbark potential was so huge that I believe was why ogog last offer failed
Look forward to your further expertise on this.

[blackcap]

Possibly-but they have just done one-and another one in the same financial year seems very unlikely.
Another take over offer at say 62 cents would probably succeed this time-Ironbark potential was so huge that I believe was why ogog last offer failed

Ironbark was the biggie and a takeover at 56 would probably succeed. I don't think they need to be so generous. Take about 20 cents off for Ironbark and 56 seems fine to me. I would accept at that level.
OGOG could also loan the money to NZO?

[fish]

Ironbark was the biggie and a takeover at 56 would probably succeed. I don't think they need to be so generous. Take about 20 cents off for Ironbark and 56 seems fine to me. I would accept at that level.
OGOG could also loan the money to NZO?

Thanks
With nta likely to be closer to $1 on an independent valuation I feel anything less than 60 cents would be unacceptable to most.
You may be under-estimating the value of Amadeus-it is earning possibly millions every month-I have not estimated the amount but they should be getting $20 Gj and more for the spot price and the contracts should be heading there.
Would be interested in wiremu opinion and calculation as the earning power of amadeus

[blackcap]

Thanks
With nta likely to be closer to $1 on an independent valuation I feel anything less than 60 cents would be unacceptable to most.
You may be under-estimating the value of Amadeus-it is earning possibly millions every month-I have not estimated the amount but they should be getting $20 Gj and more for the spot price and the contracts should be heading there.
Would be interested in wiremu opinion and calculation as the earning power of amadeus

I don't think NTA is close to $1. Remember the accounts are consolidated so you have to take out the CUE cash position to get a fair cash value of NZO..... (and the Cue Assets as well). But NTA definitely higher than 41 cents where it is trading today.

[fish]

I don't think NTA is close to $1. Remember the accounts are consolidated so you have to take out the CUE cash position to get a fair cash value of NZO..... (and the Cue Assets as well). But NTA definitely higher than 41 cents where it is trading today.

Trading is paltry
My belief is that no holders want to sell at so far below the real value but it is puzzling to me why the sp remained so depressed after falling with the rights issue .
I do not believe another rights issue is likely but you have suggested it and maybe that is one of the reasons there are no buyers .
NZO should have around $30 m in the bank deflating and large cash flows coming in .Netback lng price is strong .
Spending a small amount of this surplus on a share back would make sense for OGOG to increase their shareholding percentage-it would be good for all shareholders .

[fish]

Andrew Jefferies is really propelling these high income streams with long term contracts,infill drills and new exploration in Australia .
New kupe agreement with Genesis .

Probably take more than this for the market to wake up.
Andrew please get the sp moving again-perhaps spend 10% of the cash already in the bank on a share buy back or a small dividend ?

[fish]

Ironbark was the biggie and a takeover at 56 would probably succeed. I don't think they need to be so generous. Take about 20 cents off for Ironbark and 56 seems fine to me. I would accept at that level.
OGOG could also loan the money to NZO?

If the sp rises in the next year or two as the old contracts expire and replaced by ones reflecting current gas prices in nz and au would you be likely to sell NZo at 56 cents.?
Would be interested also on opinions of others .
My own feeling is that I might sell around 10% of my holdings only as I believe gas is the transition fuel we need for at least another decade and by then gas will be in even greater demand for all its other uses.

[mistaTea]

If the sp rises in the next year or two as the old contracts expire and replaced by ones reflecting current gas prices in nz and au would you be likely to sell NZo at 56 cents.?
Would be interested also on opinions of others .
My own feeling is that I might sell around 10% of my holdings only as I believe gas is the transition fuel we need for at least another decade and by then gas will be in even greater demand for all its other uses.

Interesting seeing the comments from the perspective of an ex shareholder.

On one hand I have to hand it to you fish, you have really stuck with it. On the other hand, you probably don't have a choice given the low SP, trading volumes and the size of your holding.

Having met Alistair McGregor on two occasions, I can absolutely assure you that he does not give a flying f*ck about minority shareholders. The prevailing share price is absolutely irrelevant to him. NZO could drop to 1c/share and it would have zero impact on the decisions they make.

Why? Because for all practical purposes, NZO is a wholly owned subsidiary of OGOG. They view it in the same way you would if you owned 100% of any business (and would not get quotes given to you every 15 minutes in terms of what the business is 'worth').

So hoping that OGOG will agree to some sort of a dividend or buy back in order to push up the SP is pie in the sky to be frank. They will not waste a cent of available cash for a short term move to try push up the SP so that minority shareholders can get out.

Same logic applies for anyone hoping for a new takeover offer. Why would OGOG spend money on that now? Tney provided that opportunity years back, we said no at the time because we were keen to participate in Ironbark. Ironbark was dry, and that was the risk we took.

They already effectively own all of NZO as they control everything. Having to do two financial reports a year for the markets is not much of an inconvenience as they have to report most of that info up to Group anyway. Also, at this junction - maintaining a listing is probably not such a bad idea as, in years to come, if they have managed to turn things around for NZO there could be opportunities to sell equity to other keen investots.

But for those hanging in there, if you hold onto your shares - you need to do so accepting the above points. You do not have any say in the future direction of the business. Andrew is a nice enough guy and may well "listen" from time to time if you give him a ring, but your hopes and desires will get zero traction at the Board meetings.

And I would run NZO in exactly the same way if I was OGOG by the way. So if you are going to stick with it, you have to view NZO as a privately owned business of which you are a very small minority SILENT partner. You go where OGOG steer you. Maybe one day you get a dividend, maybe you don't. But any dividend paid will only ever happen when surplus cash produced can no longer be used intelligently for new investments.