NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Onthemoney]

Oiler2,if the JV can get the present figures with the bad news of not yet being completely successful with commissioning,then who needs good news.
The biggest negative i can see is that we could run out of tax losses in one year.We have about 100million and that will take 200 days.Given that about 1/3 will be costs add another 100 days and we will be stuffed for tax losses in one year.I would have thought Balance would have picked that up and hammered it home.

Using the tax losses is not such a bad thing it is just a matter of questioning what the company is going to do with the positive cashflow as a result.

[fish]

Didnt NZO state they were going to return 1/2 net profits as Dividends ?

[shane_m]

email the management ask them, personally I think dividend unlikely. I think they would save it for cost blow outs at Pike.

What I can confirm is though, first coal is not going to Newcastle.

[Nitaa]

I remember seeing something about the possibility of dividends. in a nutshell it all came down to what was best for the business. i read that as firstly as using up tax credits, reducing or wiping off debts, having strong balance sheet for potential takeover targets, explorations or increase in capex. therefore any dividend would be minimal. perhaps wait until 2009 at the earliest is my guess. when kupe and pike starts producing then there is good support for handing out a divy. my pick...2009

[upside_umop]

Can't be - there is no open interest in calls for June 2010 on the NYMEX.
Perhaps BWR could enlighten us.

hey sideline,

the may presentation on nzog.net states those figures.

wouldnt have made too much sense if the options had expired before production and all..


on another note, i liked that word nita used that we havent heard for a while - explorations!

so who knows anything about felix, toke (and the rest gained with this permit area) , kupe sites and hector south..?

[neopole]

at this stage their pumping full steam ahead, and collecting cash, and by 2009 2010 they will be collecting cash from the other 2 projects. the grey zone is ..... how is tui going to perform in the next 2 years? If it starts to go downhill faster than expected....... they will need the suport of shareholders, if it declines at a slower rate, and keeps feeding cash till the other 2 projects are on stream......... then....... there is a possibility of using the cash surplus to buy back ALL the shares and delist the company, sharing out the next 20 years of income for the elite top circle.
the guys at the top will be doing their maths now....... as the share price is soooo depressed, and doing a buy back now or soon( once they have the well forcast) would be a real coup.
the future income of this company will be outstanding, its the grey zone we are in now that will make or break any closed door dealings....... and who will be party to it.
in the mean time, accumulate.

[boysy]

when do people belive a rerating might occur ?

[shasta]

at this stage their pumping full steam ahead, and collecting cash, and by 2009 2010 they will be collecting cash from the other 2 projects. the grey zone is ..... how is tui going to perform in the next 2 years? If it starts to go downhill faster than expected....... they will need the suport of shareholders, if it declines at a slower rate, and keeps feeding cash till the other 2 projects are on stream......... then....... there is a possibility of using the cash surplus to buy back ALL the shares and delist the company, sharing out the next 20 years of income for the elite top circle.
the guys at the top will be doing their maths now....... as the share price is soooo depressed, and doing a buy back now or soon( once they have the well forcast) would be a real coup.
the future income of this company will be outstanding, its the grey zone we are in now that will make or break any closed door dealings....... and who will be party to it.
in the mean time, accumulate.

Neopole

Under your scenerio above, who would buy the shares back?

The company cannot buy back more than 5% of its own capital (as per its constitution), it would also need shareholder & NZX approval to do so.

Now, IF NZO had a majority shareholder who wanted to buyout the minorities, they could mount a takeover & delist the company, but we dont!

[airedale]

If I had wanted dividends there are any number of other companies on the NZX I would have invested in. But I didn't come to NZO for them.

[upside_umop]

they can only hold upto 5% as treasury, but they can buyback and cancel as much as they like.
thus, if management were to hold their shares and buyback and cancel, eventually they could be left with the controlling stake. that is eventually...imagine the price of those last few shares they would be trying to take over..it would become a massive price.

what do you mean by rerating boysy? pike has disappointed, but tui has offset that..i think we're about same as a few months back...?