NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

upside im talking about tui reserves rerating i believe that some one metioned at around the 2 month mark (after around 10% of recoverable reserves had been extracted) they expected a rerating. im just wondering from some one in the business if thats the case usually cheers

[shasta]

upside im talking about tui reserves rerating i believe that some one metioned at around the 2 month mark (after around 10% of recoverable reserves had been extracted) they expected a rerating. im just wondering from some one in the business if thats the case usually cheers

Lets just be happy with the near 50,000bopd for the JV, low % water cut, & hope there arent any problems as Oiler2 outlined.

The flow rates & POO will determine how long we pump oil put for & its too early to start talking upgrades...

There is more oil within the structure, HOWEVER:

- Is it recoverble?

- If so, is it economic to do so?

[boysy]

cheers well now that we arnt actively exploring with the ocean patriot are we going to keep getting weekly updates do you think ? perhaps weekly flow rates water cut ect ?

[shasta]

cheers well now that we arnt actively exploring with the ocean patriot are we going to keep getting weekly updates do you think ? perhaps weekly flow rates water cut ect ?

There is no requirement for the JV partners to disclose weekly drilling reports.

Now Tui is in production they are bound by the usual NZX/ASX disclosures, otherwise expect to read about developments in the quarterlies.

Next one not due out til end of Oct, another 6 weeks or so away, during that time another roughly $30m revenue will have been earnt by NZO!

[Oiler]

Lets just be happy with the near 50,000bopd for the JV, low % water cut, & hope there arent any problems as Oiler2 outlined.

The flow rates & POO will determine how long we pump oil put for & its too early to start talking upgrades...

There is more oil within the structure, HOWEVER:

- Is it recoverble?

- If so, is it economic to do so?

Shasta

well said.......... I "believe there may well be more recoverable oil without the increase in water" . The water will hit,but the question is when?

Operator expected it to jump by now and it hasnt as yet ??
The positive is that the plant is designed to cope with the water.

There are problems to be overcome with getting a consistent 50,000 bopd and these will take time............ lets hope that in the "time" that this takes they dont get hit with "compliance issues" flaring excess gas,oil etc.

At the end of the day though it is very much a success story in the big scheme of things.

[sideline]

hey sideline,

the may presentation on nzog.net states those figures.

wouldnt have made too much sense if the options had expired before production and all..

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Yes upside, in May there were contracts open on the Nymex for June, July and August this year in the
86 and 87 US$ bracket, which together could have yielded the average of $86.25 . But unless
they have been rolled over (and I can't see a reason why they would have) they should be all
gone by now.
Far out in the future the trading is done only in $5 increments, i.e. $80,$85,$90 anyway.

[boysy]

so what do peole expect to see tomoro in update if there is one released ?

[sideline]

so what do peole expect to see tomoro in update if there is one released ?

Weekly updates are for exploration drilling only, yes??
Since there isn't any at the moment, I don't expect an update.

However Ensco107 is en route, so there may soon be some news regarding the start
of the Kupe drilling. And there were some exploration wells in the Ensco contract.

[upside_umop]

Yes upside, in May there were contracts open on the Nymex for June, July and August this year in the
86 and 87 US$ bracket, which together could have yielded the average of $86.25 . But unless
they have been rolled over (and I can't see a reason why they would have) they should be all
gone by now.
Far out in the future the trading is done only in $5 increments, i.e. $80,$85,$90 anyway.

The may presentation states it exactly like:

Tui Hedging (June 2007 to June 2010)
Put 897,000 bbls at US$50/bbl
Call 168,000 bbls at US$86.25

A reason why you may not see it on nymex is that i recall reading somewhere that they were going to base the price of put/calls on WTI crude plus the premium for tapis, so it máy not be on the nymex trading system as its tapis oil. if you've got an enquiry prob best to email nzog and hear it from their mouth...

maybe they have a private agreement and therefore wouldnt be traded on the nymex?

but yeah, im no option trader so best to go straight to the company and talk it with them.

[sideline]

Goldman Raises Year-End Oil Price Forecast to $85 (Update4)

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its yearend oil-price forecast to $85 a barrel and said there was a ``high risk'' of a jump above $90 because supplies will drop to critical levels in the fourth quarter, when heating demand peaks.

Goldman increased its 2007 yearend forecast from a previous prediction of $72 a barrel, analysts at the world's biggest securities firm said in a research note today. Prices are forecast to reach as high as $95 a barrel by the end of 2008, Goldman said.

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