sharetrader
Page 3 of 852 FirstFirst 12345671353103503 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 17021
  1. #41
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    12,890

    Default

    NZO's share price will drift lower as the excitment factor is dissipating by the day?

    The IPO of PRC has proven to be a disappointment after a lot of hype and promise. There were investors piling into NZO to get a slice of PRC. As it turned out, they need not have bothered. It is still a risky project with uncertain payoffs and its share price reflects that.

    Hector is stone cold dead as a prospect - forget about the billions of dollars to be found.

    Taranui has just come in stone cold dead.

    So cold reality will now start setting in. And on that score, it's a lot easier playing around with a stock which is well covered like AWE or BHP than it is with a stock like NZO where valuations done to date are so out of synch with the market's view.

  2. #42
    Legend shasta's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    6,724

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    NZO's share price will drift lower as the excitment factor is dissipating by the day?

    The IPO of PRC has proven to be a disappointment after a lot of hype and promise. There were investors piling into NZO to get a slice of PRC. As it turned out, they need not have bothered. It is still a risky project with uncertain payoffs and its share price reflects that.

    Hector is stone cold dead as a prospect - forget about the billions of dollars to be found.

    Taranui has just come in stone cold dead.

    So cold reality will now start setting in. And on that score, it's a lot easier playing around with a stock which is well covered like AWE or BHP than it is with a stock like NZO where valuations done to date are so out of synch with the market's view.
    6250 bopd for NZO, makes for exciting times you mean Balance?

    Agree, AWE (& other ASX mid tier oilers) are better covered by analysts, & NZO being in the NZX50 doesn't seem to mean a damn thing...

    However, no hype, blue sky valuations, & even NZO's long time knockers can' t argue against it, we have $$$$ people!

    NZO has cash & lots of it, nothing boring about that, it's what we've all been waiting for, NZO starting to PRODUCE the blackgold...

    Every week we will get another > $3.5m revenue into the pot...

    We get too much of it & someone else will want to take it off us

    The SP should incrementally climb, & ultimately be at the mercy of oil prices whilst we are running at 50,000bopd flow rates.

    No longer a trading stock IMO, but more of a yield play for investors.

  3. #43
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    12,890

    Default

    Plenty of companies out there producing the blackgold, shasta - plenty. The one thing worth noticing is that posters here keep talking revenues from the production but how much of that is already priced into the stock? Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.

    Hector and Taranui were priced into NZO and when they came out dry, down went the share price despite the belief by some that they were free options. Sorry but they were not free, were they?

  4. #44
    Advanced Member trackers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,276

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Closed Loop View Post
    Now that all the drills in this series are completed [sadly all failures] the SP will now move on existing fundamentals and not on speculation.In fact the drills have had a negative effect on the SP as there was always a chance that they would be unsuccesful.That negative effect was greater than it should have been and now that the drills are out of the way the SP can now move forward on fundamentals.Or put it another way the SP will now be decided by investers and not speculators. Or again another way the SP would be higher today if NZO had never taken part in a drilling series.It seems to me that the only negative effect of drilling a dud well should be limited to your % cost of the unsuccessful drill. With NZO the negative effect is much greater that just thoses costs.
    Well said!

  5. #45
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,167

    Default

    just state the facts hector and taranui were duds but TUI isnt ,with potential for regrade ect but based on the facts the SP of $1 will be short lived if crude prices remain high and our x change falls either one of which is likely,and possibly both .
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  6. #46
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    12,890

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by boysy View Post
    just state the facts hector and taranui were duds but TUI isnt ,with potential for regrade ect but based on the facts the SP of $1 will be short lived if crude prices remain high and our x change falls either one of which is likely,and possibly both .

    Profit = Revenues less costs less interest.

    So what is Tui worth to NZO NPV? I do not know but you all seem to but don't want to post it ?

  7. #47
    Legend shasta's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    6,724

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Plenty of companies out there producing the blackgold, shasta - plenty. The one thing worth noticing is that posters here keep talking revenues from the production but how much of that is already priced into the stock? Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.

    Hector and Taranui were priced into NZO and when they came out dry, down went the share price despite the belief by some that they were free options. Sorry but they were not free, were they?
    Fair call others oilers i like are AED/NWE/AWE/BPT/COE, but NZO undilluted @ say 260m @ $1 = $260m MC (very simplistic terms)

    We get 9 months revenue to balance date (6250 X 365 x 9/12 = 1.7mmbo)

    for 1 July - 31 March (take off a month or so to be conservative, say 1.5mmbo & for the ultra conservative reduce to 1.0m).

    Using $US70 @ NZ/USD 0.70 (again very simplistic thinking) = $100 per barrel or $100m revenue

    Is a $260m MC reasonable for a company generating that sort of revenue?

    It won't last at those levels for much more than a year, but with Pike & Kupe to come online 2008/09, as a yield type play we can now start to apply a forward P/E ratio to value NZO.

    Now, lets estimate the numbers, say EBITDA of $80m?, & NPAT of $52m?(no tax due to continuity of losses carried forward).

    I used NPAT of $52m to illustrate EPS @ 20c, & as of today the market says a P/E of 5 @ $1?

    Naw, to cheap for my mind, givien the POO & FX rates allow for more upside & these figures exclude other projects...

    Conclusion: $1 today is buying more than $1, real question is how much more are you getting?

    NB, Figures are all illustrative only, please DYOR.

  8. #48
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Sydney, Australia.
    Posts
    162

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Paying $1.00 for $1.00 makes no sense.
    were they?
    are you comparing $250m market cap and max revenue of $250m?

  9. #49
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    London, United Kingdom
    Posts
    1,197

    Default NPV TAP cps

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Profit = Revenues less costs less interest.

    So what is Tui worth to NZO NPV? I do not know but you all seem to but don't want to post it ?
    I have quickly updated waihokke's (spelt along those lines) spreadsheet by applying current market rates:

    -oil from $55 to $75
    -exchange rate from 0.67 to 0.70
    -NPV starting from now rather than 3 years
    -updated the recoverable amount of oil from 25mmboe to 32mmboe
    -updated number of shares to 262.5 million

    All other factors left constant. The factors above have potential for upside, but also for downside.

    Given this, it gives NZO a NPV of $177 million = 67.5 cps
    All in all, this is a high case scenario.

    A couple of things i noticed in the spreadsheet that i didnt fix were:

    1) The oil flows were for 7 years, rather than 18 expected this will adversly affect the NPV of the project.

    2) Tax benefits were not included, this will positively affect the NPV.

    For the above two, I havent calculated net effect, as it was relatively quick fix of the current spreadsheet, but you get the overall jist of things.
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  10. #50
    Legend shasta's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    6,724

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    I have quickly updated waihokke's (spelt along those lines) spreadsheet by applying current market rates:

    -oil from $55 to $75
    -exchange rate from 0.67 to 0.70
    -NPV starting from now rather than 3 years
    -updated the recoverable amount of oil from 25mmboe to 32mmboe
    -updated number of shares to 262.5 million

    All other factors left constant. The factors above have potential for upside, but also for downside.

    Given this, it gives NZO a NPV of $177 million = 67.5 cps
    All in all, this is a high case scenario.

    A couple of things i noticed in the spreadsheet that i didnt fix were:

    1) The oil flows were for 7 years, rather than 18 expected this will adversly affect the NPV of the project.

    2) Tax benefits were not included, this will positively affect the NPV.

    For the above two, I havent calculated net effect, as it was relatively quick fix of the current spreadsheet, but you get the overall jist of things.
    What on earth discount were you using, NPV of $177m = one full year of revenue @ 50k BOPD & this project will go for around 10 years!

    Remember the oil is flowing NOW, so the discount applied should be low - mid single digits.

    The Tax benefit is around $40m or around 14cps itself.

    I would also argue the POO will be higher & the FX rate lower...

    Look at my earlier post with extremely conservative figures!

    PS Its Waaihoek

  11. #51
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    hastings, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    650

    Default NZO or PPP

    Looking to shortly increase my oil weighting....but not sure wether to buy more PPP or NZO... or possibly a Aussie oiler.....probably tending towards PPP at this stage....any guidence out there.?

  12. #52
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    472

    Default

    The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.

  13. #53
    Legend shasta's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    6,724

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by arjay View Post
    The real value of the NZO SP will only be reflected in the market once NZO starts making a regular return to shareholders. No amount of blue sky drilling horizons will get us there. Neither will Tui pumping, whether it be 1000 barrels per day or 100,000 barrels per day if that revenue goes into drilling risky wells and shareholders don't see any of it. What's needed is a better than ~15c/share dividend per year for the next few years to represent a better investment on $1.50 than putting your money in the bank. For a distribution of 15c next year NZO would reap 10X that amount $1.50 in exercised options, which is good for NZO and good for their shareholders (win-win). Continued dividends over the life of Tui, Kupe etc at 15c or above will underpin the real SP at a minimum of around $1.50. Good for everyone I reckon.
    Arjay,

    Even the "mature" low growth companies on the NZX, like CMO/STU don't quite pay 10% & to be honest i would like to think NZO could do much better by buying a bigger slice of the action in a JV with AWE on say a 50/50 basis.

    We also have to consider growth by acquistion, once we ditch the coalmine.

    We are only just a producer, & if we sit back & just become a bank, like PPP & NWE we will get taken over, as the cash in the bank funds itself!

    Croseus - Look at AED/NWE - or AWE/PPP - i like these pairings...

  14. #54
    Senior Member upside_umop's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    London, United Kingdom
    Posts
    1,197

    Default

    haha cheers for the spelling!
    discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
    the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

    i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it
    i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

    have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?
    By the way - it's upside_down, not upside_umop

  15. #55
    Legend shasta's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    6,724

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by upside_umop View Post
    haha cheers for the spelling!
    discount rate used is 9% which was originally used, and i still feel is appropriate..
    the tax benefit being worth 14cps is good, but will probably be offset in the calculation from the short amount of time being used to recover oil in spreadsheet, ie 7 years instead of 18.

    i hope poo is higher too, but if we were thinking that and want to bet on it, we should be taking long positions on it
    i was so so close to taking out a forward contract for 2-3 years when nzd hit around 78 cents...but the banks only did 6 months contracts (although would be looking good now) and other forex places just laughed at the young student wanting to buy that sort of usd...

    have you got Waaihoek's original spreadsheet shasta?
    Hmmm i did have the ones he did on FIXX donkeys ago...

    NPV probably isnt the best valuation method for a company NOW producing, as i don't believe any project should be discounting CASH.

    Anyone know an industry average gross margin, or a reasonable idea of the costs to date?

    I'd love to know the split between Capex/Maintenance, as with the loan repayments the interest is easy to work out.

  16. #56
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    hastings, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    650

    Default

    Thanks Shasta, I will research NWE and AWE today, I remember a poster maybe Shrewd Crude was keen on AWE but had'nt even heard of NWE.
    Cheers.

    On another note, I see WEN (NZ Listing,) has recievied a permit for the Kotuku Oil Seeps, from little acorns maybe ?

  17. #57
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    12,890

    Default

    Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

    So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

    Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

    So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

    Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

  18. #58
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    23

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

    So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

    Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

    So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

    Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

    Balance your a share knocker freak.You must have got your schooling from religious zealous. You have the intended ability to see only what you want to find. I am left wondering why the NZO SP is not about 10 cents after reading your supposed balance comments. Could you shed any light on why it is still over a dollar dispite your many attempts to get it lower.
    Finally is there any difference between Balance,Sniper,etc,etc, and Gerymouth Petroleum?

  19. #59
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,167

    Default

    the high case scenario was bassed on oil at $55 but as we all know its well over $75 presently and opex when it meets next tuesday is unlikely to increase supply. $55 is looking a tad conservative now balance wouldnt you agree ?
    Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils

  20. #60
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    hastings, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    650

    Default

    Between Balance and Boysey we have 2 ends of the Spectrum....... not being a expert on NZO could someone post a value....which includes
    Debt Owed
    Cash in the Bank..plus estimate of Tui Cash going forward ( have they Hedged at a lower level then current mkt)
    Forward expense ... commitments for future drills etc
    NAV if the options go tits up nxt year
    NAV if the options are taken up
    Pike.. hmmn ... have my doubts... can that be a seperated assett...


    and Shares on issue, ( I presume there a millions of Director options and rights lurking )
    Cheers Croesus

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •