NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[gulf]

TIM, you do the maths they are now letting people buy a new share for $1-50 when the market values them at $1-63. The more shares there are the less percentage of the company that they are worth. They are adding $1-50 to the company diluting your $1-65.
Its not in your best interest that the options get converted when the company is cash rich. Macdunk

lets face it you have no idea what the company will do with the money - you should move on !!

[Mick100]

lets face it you have no idea what the company will do with the money - you should move on !!

yeah, that's the 64,000 dollar question - what are they going to do with the money?

[Bixbite]

TIM, you do the maths they are now letting people buy a new share for $1-50 when the market values them at $1-63. The more shares there are the less percentage of the company that they are worth. They are adding $1-50 to the company diluting your $1-65.
Its not in your best interest that the options get converted when the company is cash rich. Macdunk

Let’s see how the current head-shares will be diluted by the options after getting converted.???

Head shares 260,000,000 (head shareholders have got dividend $0.05 per share)
Options 140,000,000
Market share price @1.65

Market value 260,000,000 x $1.65 = $429,000,000
Options funding 140,000,000 x $1.50 = $210,000,000

After converted: -
$429,000,000 + $210,000,000 = $639,000,000
$639,000,000 / 400,000,000 shares = $1.60 per share

Conclusion: -
Share price for the current head shareholders who’ve got the unexpected dividend $0.05 per share, is $1.65. (No change)

Cheers

[foodee]

Bixbite
The heads look even better when you add in the imputation credits
for the dividend.

cheers

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;198900][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197933][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197516][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;197293]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c

[COLIN]

Let’s see how the current head-shares will be diluted by the options after getting converted.???

Head shares 260,000,000 (head shareholders have got dividend $0.05 per share)
Options 140,000,000
Market share price @1.65

Market value 260,000,000 x $1.65 = $429,000,000
Options funding 140,000,000 x $1.50 = $210,000,000

After converted: -
$429,000,000 + $210,000,000 = $639,000,000
$639,000,000 / 400,000,000 shares = $1.60 per share

Conclusion: -
Share price for the current head shareholders who’ve got the unexpected dividend $0.05 per share, is $1.65. (No change)

Cheers

Duncan's point is still valid, but I agree that the dilutionary effect is relatively minor. (And I can't see that the past payment of a dividend has anything to do with the point at issue. We are talking about the here and now.)

[digger]

doubt the outcome of review will go that high.

before production began, it was estimated 1/3 rd would be produced in 1st year [ending july 31 2008]
using that then with 12m until may 5 and 86 days leftto july 31 @ 40,000 barrels per day = approx extra 3.5m = 15.5m for 12 months production = upgrade to 46.5 m barrels.

to me that is a more reasonable quantity to expect at this juncture.

yes there will be further reviews - maybe only annual from here on as companies need to state reserves in annual reports.

M

I find this reasoning illogical.It just does not follow.If the field is small it might be possible to extract 1/3 in the first year. As the field gets bigger it then become harder to get anywhere near the 1/3. Remember we are contained by the often stated fact that Umuroa is limited to a max of 50000 per day.If you have trouble[not maths inclined] seeing this imagine it was 1 billion,then working flat out constrained by 50000 a day in would take 54 years. So you can not project forward a smaller field depletion rate onto a larger field unless you up the extraction rate if you are aiming to remove 1/3 in year one.

[adv]

I find this reasoning illogical.It just does not follow.If the field is small it might be possible to extract 1/3 in the first year. As the field gets bigger it then become harder to get anywhere near the 1/3. Remember we are contained by the often stated fact that Umuroa is limited to a max of 50000 per day.If you have trouble[not maths inclined] seeing this imagine it was 1 billion,then working flat out constrained by 50000 a day in would take 54 years. So you can not project forward a smaller field depletion rate onto a larger field unless you up the extraction rate if you are aiming to remove 1/3 in year one.

Valid point digger - especially when you consider that only 3 wells have been in production for most (if not all) of this year. Hence, if all 4 wells had been in production, then total production would have been 4/3 of current production (all other things being equal). So, if total production to 31 July is say 15 m barrels, then 4/3 * 15m = 20 m barrels. If we then multiply this by 3 we get back to the magic 60 m barrels of reserves.

[temptation]

Maxdunc is right. If you think that fare value for the shares is greater than $1.63, and then you sell truck loads at $1.50, then you are diluting the value!

[the machine]

Valid point digger - especially when you consider that only 3 wells have been in production for most (if not all) of this year. Hence, if all 4 wells had been in production, then total production would have been 4/3 of current production (all other things being equal). So, if total production to 31 July is say 15 m barrels, then 4/3 * 15m = 20 m barrels. If we then multiply this by 3 we get back to the magic 60 m barrels of reserves.

please elaborate which 3 wells have been in production and for how long.

would very much like to see a forecast of 60m barrels from tui, however expectwill be unlikely following present review.

maybe in a couple of years after tui H 4 out performs

M