NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Dr_Who]

Oil to soar above $90 next year says expert
By MARK SUMMERS


MANAMA: Oil prices will soar above $90 per barrel next year, a Bahraini economist has predicted.

Bahrain Economic Society senior economist Mohammed Habib Ali told the GDN that a combination of the growth of economies such as China and India, continuing global population increases and rising consumption within top oil-producing nations will push the price of crude to record levels next year.

He also said it was time GCC countries used their high surpluses to fund renewable energy projects and begin moves to end fuel subsidies in the region.

"Oil will reach above $90 next year and the problem is not politics or economics as much as it is geology," he said.

"Oil by many estimates has reached its peak and both production and the number of new oilfields found are decreasing - but at the same time world population is growing and is estimated to reach its peak around 2030.

"Therefore we can only gather that we will witness prices continue to shoot up in the next few decades to come unless the world economy goes through a tough economic depression or a breakthrough in some competitive alternative energy is found leading to immediate and sudden adopting of its usage - something which at the moment you would say appears very unlikely," he added.

Mr Habib Ali cited the example of China, where crude oil imports for the first half of this year were up 11.1 per cent on the previous year, as typical of global trends likely to increase oil prices.

"Chinese industries have not mastered the use of energy efficiency techniques and use 20-100pc more energy per unit of output than the US and Japan.

"Chinese consumers purchased more than seven million vehicles last year and demand is increasing by 20pc per annum," he said.

The economist warned that the top five net oil exporters - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE - registered a 3.7pc increase in their own consumption from 2000 to 2005, a trend that is set to continue and one which will put further pressure on fuel prices.

"Net exports are decreasing due to major exporting countries consuming more of their own oil, hence the need to abolish subsidies and think of innovative ways to conserve energy within those countries.

"People in these countries continue to consume more of it because they are consuming it for cheaper relative to all other commodities that are rising in price. People are just going to abuse this more and more," he said.

That's why countries such as Bahrain should look to abandon fuel subsidies, he explained.

"I am not for abolishing it all at once, but I believe there should be a gradual letting go. You cannot let go of anything suddenly - that would just shock the economy and that is not the right thing to go with anything.

"They should do something with the subsidy money such as invest more into renewable energy. This money should go into something very much constructive and productive."

The consequences of higher oil prices for countries like Bahrain could be serious, he added.

"You will probably experience a bit more inflation and that is exacerbated by the devaluation of the dollar so you are getting hit by both sides.

"You can expect further rises in real estate prices, especially if interest rates are kept where they are right now and not increased substantially," he said.

"By accumulating higher surplus in the short-run, the GCC has a perfect window of opportunity to start diversifying its economy by investing their petrodollars into alternative energy technology," he said.

[clips]

valid ? comment from over the tasman.....



"The problem with NZO lies in the inability of the chairman to communicate adequately with shareholders and the investing market in general. He is a very particular accountant who jealously protects the balance sheet and is forever fearful of any predator who might sneak up on the company and take control. This makes him secretive on detail and something of a control nut. Dissent on the board is not accepted, conferring control on both tenure and board behaviour. All this has created negativity in market perception, to which is added the loss of credibility consequent to over promising on past exploration. Despite this loss of confidence and consequent default of institutional fund support, the company have behaved perfectly ethically and will soon reap the rewards of 3 excellent energy projects. Those investors alienated by past failings have for the most part sold out, though it must be noted that 5 patient individuals with quite large holdings might still threaten the price with any overhang should they too become disillusioned. We now await the next phase of NZO maturing to a cash rich, productive oil/gas/coal producer when almost certainly a new wave of investors will become the dominant force on the share registry. The speculative blue sky traders are fast fading. "

[bermuda]

I am meeting with David Salisbury next week. If any poster has any relevant questions on NZO or Pike please either email them to me or post them on this thread. I will post replies on this thread after I have cleared them through David. Cheers

[trackers]

I am meeting with David Salisbury next week. If any poster has any relevant questions on NZO or Pike please either email them to me or post them on this thread. I will post replies on this thread after I have cleared them through David. Cheers

Oh, nice

1. Whats the chance of a dividend in the near future?
2. What do they believe is the likelihood of being taken over at current SP.
3. the coy mentions that they want to improve value for shareholders, how exactly do they plan to do that...?

[airedale]

Hi Clips, where did you get that quote from? What is the source on the other side of the Tasman?

[boysy]

bermuda it would be greatly appreciated if you could ask the following

what steps if any will be taken to ensure options are excised ?

if NZOG will increase there disclosure to market and shareholders ?

how if posible NZO will get brokers to change there stance about NZOG ?

What is Tui revenue being spent on ?

What are updated projected earnings from TUI ?

How PRC will effect NZOGs revenue ?

chhers

[shane_m]

In addition to boysys six questions,

(7) What is NZO doing with Tui Revenue?

(8) What is the propose of the subsidiaries? is management getting paid through subsidiaries?

(9) Whats is the current water cut at TUI?

(10) Why is there no reply to inquires submitted buy shareholders to NZO through the NZO website?

(11) Is the OD expiry date getting extended ?


Look forward to the answers...

[clips]

sharescene

[rimu]

1. Whats the chance of a dividend in the near future?

or even medium-term future?

thanks

[trackers]

Must say... I'm very much looking forward to the quarterly activities report due out at the end of the month showing how much dinero's flying in via TUI!