NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[fish]

i posted a few weeks ago about borrowing most of future ( sp)expectation built in ---yes IF THERE IS A MAJOR GENERAL GLOBAL stock mkt down turn NOG WILL SUFFER -------even though they are the best income @ bank balance wise stock in nz at present--

-malcolm and Flintstone -you are both making false assumptions
I am not going to reiterate what has already been said but the upside is so much more than the downside that this makes nzo the most promising stock I know .
Personally I have bought very large amounts options and will be converting them all and holding on to them .I am using margin trading and have mortgaged property-not my residential house so I can cope with any drop in sp for whatever reason .I estimate the risk of downside to be small -maybe 10% or so . The upside is enormous.

This is the financial opportunity of a lifetime and I want to be fully exposed to it . Apart from a few contact and trustpower-and a few residual telecom and cue I have sold most of my other stocks to get this exposure . Those stocks were going oneway only .

[BigBob]

-malcolm and Flintstone -you are both making false assumptions
I am not going to reiterate what has already been said but the upside is so much more than the downside that this makes nzo the most promising stock I know .
Personally I have bought very large amounts options and will be converting them all and holding on to them .I am using margin trading and have mortgaged property-not my residential house so I can cope with any drop in sp for whatever reason .I estimate the risk of downside to be small -maybe 10% or so . The upside is enormous.
.

I agree with you in the long term, but there's a real danger that with the significant amount of leverage that is (apparently) being poured towards the conversion one or more big players may "see the price down" in the short term.... shouldn't be too hard to squeeze a few small leveraged players out via margin calls... also don't forget that NZO is still a one horse show - imagine what a fire at TUI or any other kind of disruption to production would do to the share price in the short term...

That said, I hold loads myself for the long term, but I'm not leveraged.....

[fish]

[QUOTE=BigBob;207791]I agree with you in the long term, but there's a real danger that with the significant amount of leverage that is (apparently) being poured towards the conversion one or more big players may "see the price down" in the short term.... shouldn't be too hard to squeeze a few small leveraged players out via margin calls...

I would imagine that once the options are out of the way it would be extremely difficult and costly to force the price down]-too many people have studied warren buffet-and would buy on weakness .

Before asb accepted my margin lending application-I was subject to a very long enlightening discussion-they wanted to make sure i knew about margin calls and had a strategy to deal with it .They valued nzo at 150 and were prepared to advance me 1/2
I have two-one is an orbit mortgage and the other are the stocks i havnt sold.

Hence if someone started selling off nzo for no fundamental reason all I need to do is draw on the orbit mortgage or sell stocks other than nzo .

So the overall numbers of my nzo would increase ,the value would stay the same . NZO would have to fall below 142cents before a margin call could be made . At that stage I would start buying more -and so i suspect would a lot of others . It would be a very expensive loss for a big player . Soon nzo will be in the top 20-possibly the top 10 if momoho comes in-its an odds favorite .I suspect many big players are under-exposed and their could be a big trading day on monday-i will be keeping out of it .

[fish]

the othier person who told me his stock was going ONE WAY was bob jones

There are lots out there who are/were brilliant at misleading --p.collins at brierly hawkins at equiticorp, numerous property developers ,don fletcher at ttp , finance companies and even overseas banks .
There are people on this thread that deliberately mislead-just look over their previos posts to see who i mean ,
Fortunately there are many brilliant posters who i have learnt to trust-eg bermuda waihoek unicorn digger enumerate to name just a few .

Above all do you own research-study the threads here-they give many links to great research ,nzog website ,sharebroker reports ,population and economy growth . I have been investing for over 20 years-often largely in the dark- and have never been able to access so much information so easily about any company as much as nzo .

In fact the only thing hidden with this company is the upside .

[digger]

duncan Macgregor,see at end of day 2million heads shares traded hands at 159.I take this as your action. It seems that you forget to cancell your order to purchase that stemmed back in the days when you thought last trading day for you comp was today.At the time you did say you were prepared to win at all cost.Now you will have to repeat that again on 30 june.But remember that we are on to you so your order may have to be larger.

[tim23]

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Duncan - you didn;t get told off like you said to Strat; you just got it wrong but the 5 day gap actually makes your comp a bit more exciting than you thought?

PS Still won't answer my question re the options if they were expiring 30/06/09, braindead, blue eyed - what is it tonight?

Duncan - you are probably a Beetles fan but No Reply? - this is my 3rd challenge to you (same question) - hey it won;'t go away - is it the Scottish system you are using?

[zorba]

.

Fish,

Good luck with your investment and the leverage via margin mortgage borrowing etc.

I agree with you that on a "company" level the upside "risk" is much larger than the downside risk .....

In the narrow copany view, the main downside risks are project/mechanical risks ...... the reserves of oil, gas and coal are proven and tested, so geological risks are low ...... now its mainly project/mechanical risks related to getting the stuff out and exported. In the case of Tui production and export is in full swing. For Pike and Kupe progress is excellent and the risks reduce with each project milestone accomplished.

In the broader view, there is a looming risk associated with a major serious pullback in the world economy consequent on the reckless useless promiscuous US sub-prime fiasco scam (to quote a couple of European and US business papers) and the resulting serious downturn - recession in the US .

Flintstone drew attention to some of these broader risks, including the sensible risk that the price of oil might be managed downwards by the big boys (Saudis and Central Bankers, plus bourse regulators) to a level that would allow the world economy time to adjust to energy prices above say US$100 thus avoiding the financial implosions inherent in a rapid rise to say US$150 - 200 / barrel.

My hope is that oil prices can be stabilised in the US$110 - 120 range, this gives incentives for exploration and encouragement for conservation which the world will need anyway to mitigate global warming etc.

Regarding margin mortgage borrowing, be sure to have some backup lines of credit in place..... when the OCs were exercised, there were quite a few Noggers who used McQuarrie margin lending and who were stung badly by margin calls when the headshare price sunk downwards for a few weeks after the OCs were exercised.

Personally I would be surprised if this happens with the NZO price this time round, but nevertheless keep something in reserve.

I was speaking to Waaihoek today and he sends good luck to all Noggers -- incidentally both he and I remember and suffered financially from all the misleading bullshi.te spouted forth by the likes of Collins, Hawkins and Jones back in the mid 80's !! What scammers !!


Flintstone,

Welcome to the NZOG board -- and thanks for your thoughtful first post !!

Z

.

[digger]

Here's a dampener for all the upgrade enthusiasts, plot these numbers and predict the next number ...

27 41 47 50

I did the regressions,the differentials and asked myself what is behind the screen and came up with the only final conclusion that answers all.
Ti is--- MUTSPTR

MUTSPTR

I will say it again until it sticks
MUTSPTR
That is all short for Minimum Upgrade To Satisfy Provisional Tax requirements.

[digger]

Regarding margin mortgage borrowing, be sure to have some backup lines of credit in place..... when the OCs were exercised there were quite a few Noggers who used McQuarrie margin lending and who were stung badly by margin calls when the headshare price sunk downwards for a few weeks after the OCs were exercised.

Personally I would be surprised if this happens with the NZO price this time round, but nevertheless keep something in reserve

Good post Zobra. However i can not see any connection between the OC's and the OD's.The only thing they have in common is that they are both NZO options.The circumstances are so different now that comparsions are out the window,yet too often this bit comes up that history will repear itself because it happen last time.
This time we have a producer that does not need the money but is stuck with it because it was issued 3 years ago when we all thought it was a great idea.This time when the OD's are exercised it will be the end of a looooog history of NZO with it's hand stuck out cluching the begging bowl.We can now look forward to no placements no cash issues and no options and favourably dividends. A very different world.
Say hello to Waaihoek for me.

[tim23]

Digger - big difference, the OCs were way in the money, no brainer, the OD's quite a bit different, but if you believe the story you take up the options, you buy brokerage free @ 6c approx below market price.

PS As for the Nobles - not taking up their options to diminish delution - get over yourselves, you sacrifice say $1000 of options (not worth the brokerage to sell for??) to make a point, sell your options and give to charity!