NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[duncan macgregor]

Could be. Even of at 1.51 or 1.52 many may not bother to exercise especially if the markets continue to retreat.

Well i got that one wrong if you are right i valued the options right at the start at 5c to take into account the risk factor. I would think that the sp would have been about 20c higher right now if it had not been for the options. About a 15% dilution thanks to the options in other words. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Stampede by options holders to sell out today.

[blockhead]

Suspect Friday nights buyer just got back in the office, another 2.8m of heads & OD's just gone through

[Drone]

Big vols through, now 8.7m oppies and 4ish mill heads traded. Heads seem to be holding ok which I hope is a good sign, just don't want all the leveraged people to get stopped out which could happen if it dropped a few cents more.

[digger]

In the absence of any additional crude supply, for every one percent of crude demand, we will expect a 20 percent increase in price in order to balance the market." End quote

With all attention on the options trading expiring end of today,people need reminding of the longer term outlook.
The quote above is the first time i have been able to get a maths on how increasing demand will effect the market.I have often wonder what the likely relationship was so it is is good to get at least one educated guess at that figure.So lets watch out and see if it is in fact 20 to 1. When the gas shortage happen in the US in the 1970's a small decrease in supply had a hugh effect on price.

[duncan macgregor]

Will the parcel be worth anything tonight?. The way its plummeting right now my 5c prediction at the start is looking quite stupid. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

Suspect Friday nights buyer just got back in the office, another 2.8m of heads & OD's just gone through

Arbitrage?

[Sehnsucht888]

Acc have bought even more... Almost 12% of the options.

Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: 30 June 2008 Options ($1.50 strike)
Summary for: Accident Compensation Corporation
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 16,002,630
(b) total in class: 135,648,503
(c) total percentage held in class: 11.80%
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 12,302,630
(b) total in class: 135,648,503
(c) total percentage held in class: 9.07%
Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event
Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure under the
instructions to this form: On-market purchases of a further 3,700,000 options
on 20 June 2008.

[Nitaa]

Will the parcel be worth anything tonight?. The way its plummeting right now my 5c prediction at the start is looking quite stupid. Macdunk

This is totally expected today. Holders that dont want to convert have very little choice. Either sell or get nothing.

Just watch the trading in the last 30 minutes. Remember i said to you that even if the heads dropped a fraction under $1.50 then the big players would still convert their options.

[shasta]

This is totally expected today. Holders that dont want to convert have very little choice. Either sell or get nothing.

Just watch the trading in the last 30 minutes. Remember i said to you that even if the heads dropped a fraction under $1.50 then the big players would still convert their options.

Wouldn't any "big player" wanting to accummulate go for the options & convert, rather than chase the heads shares & push the price up (depending of course how much they want).

Might still be in play for those with deep pockets?

I mean consensus seems to be the heads will take off after the options expire?