NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Bilo]

The most important aspect of this $4 rise is that the $120 support level held confirming strong resistance to going lower than $120. I doubt if anyone is expecting it to stay at $127 for long...

And this as well from CNN:

$149 a barrel?: A report by Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach new heights was also feeding the rally.

The falling demand for crude, which had driven down prices more than $25 a barrel over the past two weeks, was only temporary, a Goldman analyst wrote in a report released Wednesday. The report went on to predict that prices would jump back up again to hit $149 a barrel by the end of the year.

"Basically Goldman Sachs hit right at the heart of why the market was going down," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

US demand was recorded as having fallen 2pc. Of 20 million barrels per day or 400,000 barrels.

[Sehnsucht888]

TV One business news this morning mentioned that the rise was partly due to an unexpected shortage I thin kit was..

[Anubis]

Crude oil inventories in the US did not fall as much as analysts had predicted. They were down 100,000 barrels versus a consensus prediction of a 1.6m barrel fall. These figures failed to provide evidence for accelerating demand destruction in the US.

[blockhead]

Buyer @ $1.58, very keen or had a wee peek at the quarterly ???

[Chalice]

Crude oil inventories in the US did not fall as much as analysts had predicted. They were down 100,000 barrels versus a consensus prediction of a 1.6m barrel fall. These figures failed to provide evidence for accelerating demand destruction in the US.

"The Energy Information Administration says that U.S. gasoline supplies fell by 3.5 million barrels last week. Analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts expected gas supplies to increase by 400,000 barrels."

This may be an indication that demand may be a bit more robust than expected...
Looking good for a decent rise today.

[Grand Uber]

Buyer @ $1.58, very keen or had a wee peek at the quarterly ???

Yeah but look at the volume, nothing substantial, i would assume that there will be a few paying a little more with the expectation of a rise on release of the report.

But surely anyone who is looking to invest or has already invested in NZO knows what to expect in the report.

Buy on rumour, sell on fact.



but now that ive said that it will probably shoot up to $3

[777]

Remember that the opening quotes get settled at 10 am and at current quotes will all trade at 1.55. By bidding high he is first in the queue.

[QOH]

The result is out

[bk]

but small volume, so I don't expect insider trading - seems that some people are willing to have a small bet at a good report and climbing NZO price.

Oil price is funny - first it goes down because crude inventories are larger than expected, then it goes up because gasoline inventories as lower than expected (could it be that refineries produced less gasoline this week, leaving more crude?)

Anyway, these are just minor fluctuations - the demand destruction in the USA (currently some 4% compared with last year) is more than matched by the increase in demand in China (16% in the last 6 months - and yes, that is of a smaller base, but is in absolute terms larger now).

And once the Olympics (both of them) have passed, and all those trucks and cars are allowed back on the road, and the industries restart, then see the price of oil fly. I do not rule out $200 by the end of the year.

Also note a 40% increase in SUV sales in China - thanks to the subsidies on oil they have not gotten the message yet.

My prediction for NZO by the end of the year (with Pike finally producing) - $2.00

[Toddy]

NZO
31/07/2008
QUARTER

REL: 0945 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited

QUARTER: NZO: NZOG Reports 12 Month Revenue of NZ$234.6 Million

New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) is pleased to report that revenue for the
three months to 30 June was $80.9 million, taking revenue for the full
2007/08 financial year to $234.6 million.

NZOG has today released its June Quarterly Activities Report and Cash Flow
Report.

The 12 month revenue figure of $234.6m compares to revenue of $4.2m in the
previous financial year.

The outstanding result is based around the highly successful Tui Area
Oilfields off the Taranaki coast, in which NZOG holds a 12.5% stake.

NZOG's Tui revenue for the year ended 30 June 2008 was $222.8m . There was
also a gain recognised form the successful float of Pike River Coal Ltd and
some other small non-Tui revenue items.

Tui began production almost exactly one year ago, on 30 July 2007. To date it
has produced over 15.2 million barrels of oil. The initial proven and
probable (2P) reserves were upgraded twice during the June Quarter; first to
47 million barrels and then to 50.1 million barrels.

Oil prices hit record levels during the June Quarter. Tui oil is generally
sold against the regional Tapis benchmark crude. Tapis rose from US$110 at
the beginning of April, to US$150 at the end of June. It has since eased back
to US$135. However, that has been somewhat offset by the fall in the NZ
dollar.

Tui's expected production for the 2008/09 financial year has been upgraded
from 6 to 9 million barrels of oil (NZOG's share 1.125 mmbbls), providing
continuing strong revenue and cash flows ahead of commercial production
starting in mid-2009 from the Kupe project.

NZOG completed the largest capital raising on the NZX this year during the
June Quarter, through the exercise of June 2008 options. 91.8% of the options
were converted to shares at $1.50 per option, raising $190.8m. Along with the
Tui revenue, this has contributed to a very substantial cash balance.

Cash in hand at 30 June was $256.5 million. With further option payments
received in July, the current cash balance is approximately $280m.

"NZOG is on a very sound financial footing and we are focused on maximising
value from our existing assets, as well as identifying attractive new
investments", Chief Executive David Salisbury said.

"This includes looking beyond New Zealand, as the opportunities currently
available here are too few to confidently satisfy our growth targets".

In the interim, the cash funds have been invested in short-term banking
facilities with a number of S&P AA or better rated institutions.

"We are not in the business of financial speculation with shareholder funds,"
David Salisbury said.