NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Corporate]

sounds like it's time for you to sell

Don't get me wrong. I still think there is 20% SP appreciation to come, $2 should be achievable. I'm talking about longterm prospects of say 100% growth.

[duncan macgregor]

Don't get me wrong. I still think there is 20% SP appreciation to come, $2 should be achievable. I'm talking about longterm prospects of say 100% growth.

Everything depends on the next hole in the ground nothing more nothing less. It is an expensive high risk game that can go either way you gotto have faith my friend if not get out. Macdunk

[tim23]

I thought it was all to do with what the chart was saying?

[blockhead]

I thought it was all to do with what the chart was saying?

No Tim you didn't listen to McDunk, its to do with the market, market down...NOG down, market up...maybe NOG up, pretty simple,...according to "share dealing 101" with McDunk

[tim23]

Is that when you use the 30 day MA to pick up road kill from the blue eyed brigade?

[blockhead]

Is that when you use the 30 day MA to pick up road kill from the blue eyed brigade?

You have been listening after all !

[digger]

This morning I've been thinking about what is going to make NZO's share price appreciate in the long term.

1. Tui - We all know it has performed beyond any expectation, and high oil prices have just further compounded this. However, the best is probably behind us, as production is set to decrease. The market knows how successful Tui has been and unless further reserves are discovered, I can not see this as a driver of a higher share price. The future revenues are factored in, along with market sentiment.

2. Kupe - Apparently 80% complete. As and when Tui revenues decline. Kupe will hopefully kick in, and will enable NZO to maintain a steady stream of revenue. However again, I don't see it as driving the share prices from where we are currently at. Tui down, Kupe takes over.

3. Pike - Is Nearing productions which should see a re-rate. It seems that NZO's intention, from what I understand has always to eventually sell out in one way or another. This will just add further cash to the kitty, and isn't really a long-term share price driver.

4. Momoho - A bit of a dead duck for the foreseable future.

So the long term share price appreciation seems to hinge on what NZO do with all the Tui and Option Cash. They are fundamentally sound; with the value of cash and PRC totaling about half the current market cap, along with steady income streams from Tui and then Kupe.

I'm not in favour of NZO paying out a 10-20c dividend for the sake of it. I want growth, and a heafty dividend is short term thinking in my view! Sure if they can't find something worth spending the cash on, then fine, give it back.

Even buying PPP and returning any revenue to shareholders above payback would be a better option than spending what cash we currently have on a dividend. Once it's gone, it's gone.

This is a bit of a thought dump. But interested to see other peoples views.

Hey that is not how i see it.
TUI----you have tui all factored in.This is getting to be a bit of a stuck record.First heard that one about 3 years ago.In fact it was even factored out by some as costs were going to be higher and we were even supposted to sell it all at 40 dollars while the going was good.For the records TUI has proven it is still going to beat the conserative JV estimates which is the way we want it.Certainly not underpreforming. By world standards the TUI area is lightly drilled so much potential there yet.
Kupe is a winner for years to come.Do note that TUI with one year to production had little effect on SP as given today,and similiary Kupe effect is yet to come.The market just wants and will wait for the bank account to measure if Kupe has any hydrocarbons or not regardless of that our geologists tells us.
Pike.I probably was always the biggest supporter of this project from day one.I come from a mining family in Canada so the extraction of this coal in this world time always made good economics to me.Am starting to think that maybe NZO should hang onto this investment.It will be a good long term money earner,so ask why sell it.Certainly little point in selling it to go off chasing some overseas project that are increasingly in danger of being nationalised the moment they becomes productive.
Momoho---the productive of this one is a function of price.Remember Kupe was not economic because of Maui and the then current price.This one is for a future time,which is a time far longer than investers will factor in.You can be sure though that the info gathered will be carefully stored.OK the market has this one at a drill cost and nil value.
There are other reasons why the SP is so low which i would like to express MHO about some other time.

[bermuda]

Good news article this morning:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4638685a13.html

In discussing acquisitions, Mr Salisbury "ruled out coalseam methane gas".

I had a chat with DS in Sydney at the oil conference about purchasing VPE. Was going to get some material for him but decided against. I realised that would be a stupid idea. VPE is destined for QGC. NZO would only get into a silly fight and come up way short on CSG experience.

But most of all NZO need to stay in their existing field of expertise/experience. They know so much about Taranaki and have numerous targets lined up.I know they have a corporate plan to double through an acquisition/s but in my mind it would have to be done in the Taranaki area and that is why PPP must be the strong contender. Remember they sold it under duress and it is a perfect investment for them.

Stick to your knitting NZO. Taranaki will make us a fortune.

[gazprom1]

Does anybody have any thoughts on NOG buying Horizon (HZN)? Would be a big undertaking but would generate immediate (well nearly) income from Maari (which appears to have have upside potential) as well as other opportunities in China and PNG.

[zorba]

Hi Gazprom1 (Rusian connection ?), welcome to the NZOG thread.

A T/O of HRN is perhaps possible but it might be difficult for their shareholders accept anything less than 40 - 45 cents a share.

A script plus cash take over might be cheaper and might work.

For me the best fit would be PPP .......

Also here is a thoght outa left field:

BG manages to buy Origin and then divests NZ operations, including holdings in Kupe (50%) and Contact (51%). Could this open up some interesting options for NZOG ?

Z

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