NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boxburger]

I've heard lots of wise and successful businessmen say "Stick to what you know."

A rig could be built from scratch.

A rig based in NZ capable of handling the Southern Ocean depths could fetch 'Top Dollar'

There is a shortage of experienced 'oil men' in the world.

As other business sectors go into decline, unemployment will rise. I believe a Government could be lobbied to provide a considerable subsidy towards training our thrill-seeking gutsy young men in the skills required to create well paid, secure, life-long careers for themselves. A successful Nat govt investment in the future of our boys with tattoos would make them look good.

I think people interested in oil exploration are curious by nature. I keep having this uncontrollable urge to visualise ways we can turn the Taranaki Bite into Swiss Cheese.

[Casa del Energia]

Iran tests a missile capable of sinking shipping in the Gulf, threatens to close it off if attacked which would make oil rival gold in price .... therefore NZO sp immediately plummets to 5 or 6c.

That makes about as much sense as a cat getting up on the podium at Crufts and saying 'I hate dogs - come and get me'.

Crazy times.

[duncan macgregor]

It would be the blind leading the blind just as it was in the building game leading up to the leaky homes problems. When you get a group of people how ever well intentioned trying to organise a complex problem like building a drilling rig making decisions about something they know nothing about, its a sure fire way to lose money. If for instance it was such a lucrative proposition there would be an abundance of drilling rigs. Get back to your school books teaching the kids what one and one make, and leave the big decisions to the people with the expertease to make the decisions. People like that stuffed up the building trade dont wish it on the oil industry. Macdunk

[AMR]

It seems to be a sector wide sellout. I never imagined BPT could touch $1 again, nor could AZA fall back to $1 so soon after a $1.50 bid.

All eyes on oil price tonight...today is either the bottom at 120 or the start of another secondary correction.

[boxburger]

It would be the blind leading the blind just as it was in the building game leading up to the leaky homes problems. When you get a group of people how ever well intentioned trying to organise a complex problem like building a drilling rig making decisions about something they know nothing about, its a sure fire way to lose money. If for instance it was such a lucrative proposition there would be an abundance of drilling rigs. Get back to your school books teaching the kids what one and one make, and leave the big decisions to the people with the expertease to make the decisions. People like that stuffed up the building trade dont wish it on the oil industry. Macdunk

Hi Macdunk,
Yes, I see the valid points you raise glaring at me.

I also thought about the building and commissioning of the Umuroa. A process that went true to plan and a purpose built vessel that has just proven itself in extreme conditions. I think NZOG's dabble in the oil/nautical field so far has been a success. I'm not suggesting they go it alone. OK, I'll shut my gob now, making the Milo and reading what you have to say.

[Chalice]

Chalice
Energy producers all around the world are accumulating good revenue and are cash richer...but their share prices are also off their highs for the year, and are "perceived" now to be cheap. There seems to be a rather large risk premium built in these energy producing stock share prices at the moment for some reason.
NZO is no exemption....yes, local factors (exercised options) don't help.
I am not sure at what degree the local factors has influenced the NZO share price, or whether it is more to do with the shift of available money away from the Global energy sector market causing an overall lack of momentum everywhere incl NZO.


Drone
Personally, I think takeover activity just adds extra risk which could in the future turn out to be unwise... taking in the consideration of a worsening hostile economic environment. Bank loans to oil companies normally carry high risk status, and in this current environment those high risk loans could be expensive. E.g PPP example,,,and that was when credit was easy and in a less risk adverse environment.
There are many more worse options than money in the bank (safe?) earning 8 to 10% interest. Can't think of many better options at the moment..I have the feeling, neither can the NZO management.

Hoop,

NZO has never really had a "high", a couple of spikes above 180 and fluffed around 170ish for a month with an equilibrium around 155-165 - the local market is saturated with NZO for the time being.
Given the fact that energy producers are "cheap"/risk factors built in wouldn't it be a great time to acquire? I didn't give NZO my money for it to sit in a bank a/c.

I disagree that NZO management can't think of better options - they are assessing them at present and for all we know doing due diligence /negotiations.

[duncan macgregor]

It seems to be a sector wide sellout. I never imagined BPT could touch $1 again, nor could AZA fall back to $1 so soon after a $1.50 bid.

All eyes on oil price tonight...today is either the bottom at 120 or the start of another secondary correction.

C-MON AMR you are a chartist it is really simple to understand. I tried to tell NITA but HE is to much i am right you must be wrong attitude to learn anything. NZO crossed the 30 day moving average in the middle of march at roughly 124c giving me my buy signal. It then reached 162c and dropped to 153c which would have got you out with a tight stop loss. The next time it crossed the thirty day moving average was in june at about 158c it then went up to 185c getting you out with a stop loss at whatever level. The buy signal right now is at approx 165c. The point being rough mathematics included is you only need half a brain to beat the buy and hold for ever and a day types. Let us look at the share price in a realistic rational way over the last four years.
The sp was roughly 130c four years ago today its roughly 160 c plus a 5c divi plus a free option now worth 10c. That is a gain of 45c on an investment of 130c or roughly 35c over four years which is not even beating the bank in the most hyped up share in the NZX.
At least with the bank you reinvest the interest.
I know that i have pulled figures out to suit the arguement but you cant argue with facts which only proves that the brain dead are exactly that. The chartist is in a different position he neither loves or hates a company, only looking at numbers barking at the herd getting them to run, predicting there next move, preying on the weak, jumping in and out for the kill, where nothing matters other than the thrill of the drill [KILL]. I only hope that my mate NITA can come out the cupboard and prove me wrong with numbers for a change.
DISCL am out the market looking in. macdunk

[Nitaa]

Let us look at the share price in a realistic rational way over the last four years.
The sp was roughly 130c four years ago today its roughly 160 c plus a 5c divi plus a free option now worth 10c. That is a gain of 45c on an investment of 130c or roughly 35c over four years which is not even beating the bank in the most hyped up share in the NZX.
At least with the bank you reinvest the interest.
I know that i have pulled figures out to suit the arguement but you cant argue with facts which only proves that the brain dead are exactly that. The chartist is in a different position he neither loves or hates a company, only looking at numbers barking at the herd getting them to run, predicting there next move, preying on the weak, jumping in and out for the kill, where nothing matters other than the thrill of the drill [KILL]. I only hope that my mate NITA can come out the cupboard and prove me wrong with numbers for a change.
DISCL am out the market looking in. macdunk

Duncan this is why i love you so much.

Let us look at the share price in a realistic rational way over the last six years.
The sp was roughly 25c six years ago today its roughly 160 c plus a 5c divi plus a free option now worth 10c. That is a gain of $1.50 on an investment of 25c or roughly 5c over six years which is beating the bank in the most hyped up share in the NZX.
At least with the nzo you can reinvest the dividend.
I know that i have pulled figures out to suit the arguement but you cant argue with facts which only proves that the brain dead are exactly that. The fundamentalist is in a different position he neither loves or hates a company, only looking at numbers and fundamentals syphoning all the herd and getting them on the run, who cares what they are predicting there next move, preying on the weak, jumping in and out to be killed, where nothing matters other than the thrill of the drill [KILL]. I only hope that my mate DUNCAN can come out the cupboard and prove me wrong with numbers for a change.
DISCL am in the market looking out. nita

[duncan macgregor]

Duncan this is why i love you so much.

Let us look at the share price in a realistic rational way over the last six years.
The sp was roughly 25c six years ago today its roughly 160 c plus a 5c divi plus a free option now worth 10c. That is a gain of $1.50 on an investment of 25c or roughly 5c over six years which is beating the bank in the most hyped up share in the NZX.
At least with the nzo you can reinvest the dividend.
I know that i have pulled figures out to suit the arguement but you cant argue with facts which only proves that the brain dead are exactly that. The fundamentalist is in a different position he neither loves or hates a company, only looking at numbers and fundamentals syphoning all the herd and getting them on the run, who cares what they are predicting there next move, preying on the weak, jumping in and out to be killed, where nothing matters other than the thrill of the drill [KILL]. I only hope that my mate DUNCAN can come out the cupboard and prove me wrong with numbers for a change.
DISCL am in the market looking out. nita

NITA you old darling what you have said is that NZO performed very well from 6years ago to four years ago, then the in hindsight you should have for the last four years stuck your money in the bank. The aussie banks would have been better, you would have about a 15% gain to add to that. Its not very good to tell everyone how clever you are when even the bank beats your investment. Macdunk bringing you back to earth as usual.

[Nitaa]

Duncan. The obvious choice for you rather than sitting on a pidley 5% interest after tax is to load the back, back it up, top up nzo when it hit low $1.00 this year, sell a few weeks ago when it hit $1.91 and voala. Easy peazy japanesey for the not so brain dead TA expert.

I dont have time to trade in and out, i do plenty of that in the evening to worry about why the charts proved me wrong. in not a chartist and dont care. I play on fundamentals and let the ta player such as yourself get mentally screwed, then you justify why yesterdays trading pattern went against you.