NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[upside_umop]

$140 million after tax=40 cents approx a share-? not much from there
DS has also said they would in future pay a reasonable percentage of profits as dividends-I am sure most investors would think 25% or 10 cents a share would not be unreasonable .
With the falling dollar and Tui producing well this years profits might not be too bad -suspect it will be more like 100 million than 60-but whatever figure there will be enough profit to pay out a good dividend.
This share has an incredible p/e ratio but the value of this share in times such as these will not be recognised by the market until a cash return is seen .

What im saying is, dividends are sticky downwards. Companies dont like to reduce dividends...without a good reason. P/E doesnt mean anything..its the DCF.

Tui, bringing in now less than 700k per day..still amazing.

But FISH, DS said it was the final for the year in the interim. Profit may indeed be higher because of interest etc than 60..but from operating activities will be well down on this year unless NZO get quick smart about an acquistion.

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blocky, i saw that too. pretty interesting. dont know if nzo will commit that much risk?

[fish]

[QUOTE=upside_umop;217500]What im saying is, dividends are sticky downwards. Companies dont like to reduce dividends...without a good reason. P/E doesnt mean anything..its the DCF.

Tui, bringing in now less than 700k per day..still amazing.

But FISH, DS said it was the final for the year in the interim. Profit may indeed be higher because of interest etc than 60..but from operating activities will be well down on this year unless NZO get quick smart about an acquistion.

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I dont know how far ahead nzo has sold its oil nor the exact production rate but even if tui is down to 32000 barrels per day at the last trading price tapis-$124 at exchange rate 70cents= a little over $700k per day ie oil price and production is well beyond expectations when the dividend was announced in february .
Whatever DS said is simply what he said at the time -it is not an irrevocable law that cannot be altered to suit circumstances -the dividend was declared well before nzo entered its final quarter that earned an unexpected $80.9 million.
The best action in the interests of its shareholders is to pay out a special dividend-say 10cents or 20 million dollars -to recognise

1)-The windfall earnings of the final quarter
2)-the investors/shareholders for digging deep to make it a successful capital raising

[Bilo]

Hi Nita,
I have never been so nervous about the stock market in my life.

The incident that brought some of this home to me was the AWE share price performance. AWE had annual revenue equal to half its capitalisation, made AUD500M operating profit on AUD800M of revenue, increased reserves and the share price was dropped another 50cps. Fundamentals have been trashed as index players try to limit their losses (on the few basket cases) to the market average by trashing everything.

There are stupid dark forces at work (within dopey trading laws) that are extremely destructive. Unfortunately the actions and motives of many participants in the ASX and major world bourses are doubtful. Share prices can be moved significantly on very little volume and this has made it possible for the big index plays to force even the best of stocks to perform worse than the market average. The stupid thing is that an index will sell when company investors won't sell. Lets not let the NZX go down the same stupid track......shorting supports divestment not investment....

Some time the bigger players will start to buy up the better performing companies and the tide will turn - probably relatively quickly.

[upside_umop]

My bad fish, it is still well over 700 k, dont know what i was thinking. Should be still around $850 k...how much longer that will last is anyones guess.
But yes, a special dividend would be fine...and thats the only way they will pay it out imo - thik i've said this before...they would try not to send the signal of it being reoccuring unless they can do it.

[Sideshow Bob]

From Fish

The best action in the interests of its shareholders is to pay out a special dividend-say 10cents or 20 million dollars -to recognise

10c per share = approx $38.5 million.

I think should pay some sort of dividend - From end of June until end of August when the result comes out, and then by the time they pay any divvie, they will probably pull in 5-8 million in interest.

[Paddie]

Operators discuss new Maui-Tui pipeline

By ROB MAETZIG rob.maetzig@tnl.co.nz - Taranaki Daily News | Saturday, 09 August 2008

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The operators of offshore Taranaki energy fields, Tui and Maui, look set to sign a special deal to allow shared use of their production facilities.

If the deal goes ahead, it will be specially significant for one of the operating companies, which is under fire for flaring off millions of cubic feet of gas during its oil production operations.

For the other company, it will provide an opportunity to make money from a pocket of crude oil discovered during gas-drilling operations. The Maui gasfield is 35km off the Taranaki coast, with the Tui oilfield a further 15km away.

While Tui is proving a huge success, producing more than 40,000 barrels of crude oil a day, the operation is being slammed by environmentalists for flaring more than 17 million cubic feet of gas a day. This amount of gas would be enough to power Auckland, and should be either piped ashore or reinjected underground for future use, critics say.

But now the Tui owners are now moving to resolve the issue.

Shell Todd Oil Services, operator of the Maui field, confirmed preliminary talks had begun on the possibility of one Maui gas production platform receiving Tui gas.

These talks followed an approach by Tui field operator Australian Worldwide Exploration. AWE's New Zealand country manager Dennis Washer refused to comment, saying it was confidential matter.

But the Taranaki Daily News understands the talks involve the possible laying of a flexible pipeline on the sea floor for transfer of the gas from Tui to a Maui platform for processing before export ashore in the existing Maui gas line.

It is also understood the same line could be used to pipe crude oil from Maui to the Tui field for processing aboard the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility there, before being exported with the Tui oil aboard tankers that regularly visit the site.

Rumours abound that this oil was discovered during the drilling of new gas prospects from the Maui A platform.

The Maui partners are currently unable to do anything with this oil, as the FPSO that spent several years at Maui during production from the Maui B oilfield is no longer on site.


An interesting post, not to sure what to read in to it.

Paddie

[fish]

Operators discuss new Maui-Tui pipeline


An interesting post, not to sure what to read in to it.

Paddie

tHX FOR THAT POST

That sounds a win-win which is good news-the flaring of Tui Gas has been bad news.

[boysy]

how much would the flaring gas net nzo a day ?

[Paddie]

tHX FOR THAT POST

That sounds a win-win which is good news-the flaring of Tui Gas has been bad news.

Hi Fish,

Flaring issues have been raised before, but I guess I am more interested in the credibilty of the rest of the story..

Paddie

[fish]

Hi Fish,

Flaring issues have been raised before, but I guess I am more interested in the credibilty of the rest of the story..

Paddie

Hi
I dont doubt the credibility-refusing to comment probably means they are negotiating costs and didnt want to announce it to the markets-I guess they will have to announce it now-
I found another reference to it on the hotcopper site-if its feasible why has it taken so long ?I guess the answer to that is that Tui is much bigger than expected and the gas was initially expected to decline quickly