NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Casa del Energia]

I don't think so. I must admit, I would not have expected NZO to dip below $1.50, or the price of oil to go below $115 a barrel, but looking at the numbers below this is not exceptional......

.........the bottom.

Fascinating set of figures.

And watch what happens if you take the base price of $28 in 1984 and roll it forward using the CPI index - (third column)

Actual CPI adj.

1984 $28
1988 $15 -46% $46
1990 $23 +53% $51
1994 $16 -30% $55
1996 $20 +25% $58
1998 $12 -40% $60
2000 $27 +125% $61
2002 $23 -23% $65
2008 $147 +539% $76 (qtr 1)
2008 $115 -22% $77

[Drone]

I'm out this morning, luckily managed to get my holding away before the bid orders dried up altogether... the stock sadly seems to have lost any connection to fundamentals. Must be leveraged players getting bounced out. The next couple of weeks will be interesting.. However I think people will be wise to hold going into the results announcements, the stock will get a bounce there like we saw with revenue I think. So look to get back in prior to that or if the price drops to just silly levels.

[Phaedrus]

Here is an update of this chart from 3 weeks ago.



You can see that NZO has now clearly broken below the support at +/- $1.52 that had held since April. This also marks the end of the "medium-term" uptrend that had been running since January. NZO is now in a confirmed downtrend.

The fact that the downward spiral has been on low volume does give some hope

False hope, I'm afraid, Rabbi. The blue line marks NZO's average volume and it is easy to see the the downtrend is on high volumes - much higher than average.

It is an exercise in futility to argue with this market, as it is not trading on fundamentals, but fear and panic. Accordingly, in this climate, TA is pretty ineffective.

This quote is from the CUE thread, Rabbi, but I'm sure you feel that it also pertains to NZO. Naturally, I strongly disagree! Right now (as always) market sentiment is overpowering fundamental considerations. TA works by monitoring market sentiment, so at times like this TA is very effective. It is FA that is "pretty ineffective" in this climate.

In the meantime, my advice is, batten down the hatches and be stoic.

(again from CUE, but I figure you would have the same attitude to NZO) Fair enough - each to his own. My advice is be watching from the sidelines, looking to buy back in again when NZO has stopped falling and started to rise again. In the meantime, "staunch" holders are giving their profits back to the market.

(The chart shows the latest price of $1.47. The Close may well be different.)

[777]

There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.

[fabs]

An other not imposible scenario.

Oil from 147 to 113=34 NZO from 1.90 to 1.45=45
113to 79=34 1.45to 1.00=45
79to 62 =17 1.00to 67=23
take your pick!

Diskl. Still hold nzo at avr. cost of 32 c sold 100k at 1.75 before the free fall.

[Dr_Who]

Whats gonna happen to those that mortgage their house to buy NZO?

Lets becareful out there people.

[Chalice]

There must be nearly enough money in the bank to cover $1.47 per share.

Atleast $0.75/share cash, and increasing by a cent every 10 days or so + say another 45 cents for Pike @ 1.80 which means we have around 25 cents for Tui & Kupe - Ah such a fickle thing the market is, just wish I wasn't building at the moment...

[blockhead]

You know you could borrow all the money for a takeover and have the interest covered in 3 - 4 months, rest of the year is profit. Might head in to Timaru and see if Alan Hubbard has enough change lying around

[Drone]

Although a share buyback above $1.50 would look a bit funny given they just "issued" at that level, I think they could easily justify buying back at below those levels if they can't soon find a home for the cash.

[Chalice]

You know you could borrow all the money for a takeover and have the interest covered in 3 - 4 months, rest of the year is profit. Might head in to Timaru and see if Alan Hubbard has enough change lying around

Want to go halves?
BTW Tapis trading at or near all time differential of +$US10-11, so still over $US120/$NZ170.