NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Chalice]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

McD,

If the market crashes due to a oil Spike to $200 NZO will follow it down in the very short term but recover.
If the slope to $200 is a very slow and steady one, allowing companies to plan and react & its based mainly on supply/demand factors and the market finally crashes as non-oil/energy take a beating I think NZO will perform outstandlingly.

What happens next? A new set of market darlings which are energy based, both new and existing sources, R&D & food + land.

But that supposes the crash is not part of a worldwide economic meltdown reflecting the market crash which would errode oil demand & therefore prices.

I am of the opinion we may enter a period of oil price spikes, economic decline, demand errosion, price fall, economic recovery, price spike etc until there is a fundamental and permanent change i.e. peak oil irrefutably evident and permanent and/or the world economy learns to live with high prices.

Whatever happens I think NZO is a must have stock in any portfolio!,

[Casa del Energia]

Just out of interest lets have a few opinions on the following question.
If the market crashes simply because the price of oil hits $200 a barrel will the share price of NZO trend up with increased profits or trend down with market sentiment.

I say the share price would follow the market down ignoring company fundamentals.
If i am right and the market crashes because of the price of oil what happens next?.
No personal attacks please just an honest opinion. Macdunk

Can't say fairer than that! - My oar in the water:

Oil hits $200. Global slowdown, Equities sensitive to oil hit hard, Banks, Tech will be neutral. Minerals hit but coal and oil producers do well.
My crystal ball says big trouble all round but the oil companies will go against the market.

(Why?) - example - the markets were knocked sideways earlier this year, lots of uncertainty so money goes into gold - the gold miners did well - - quod erat demonstrandum, the same effect with NZO.

[Nitaa]

McD,

If the market crashes due to a oil Spike to $200 NZO will follow it down in the very short term but recover.
If the slope to $200 is a very slow and steady one, allowing companies to plan and react & its based mainly on supply/demand factors and the market finally crashes as non-oil/energy take a beating I think NZO will perform outstandlingly.

What happens next? A new set of market darlings which are energy based, both new and existing sources, R&D & food + land.

But that supposes the crash is not part of a worldwide economic meltdown reflecting the market crash which would errode oil demand & therefore prices.

I am of the opinion we may enter a period of oil price spikes, economic decline, demand errosion, price fall, economic recovery, price spike etc until there is a fundamental and permanent change i.e. peak oil irrefutably evident and permanent and/or the world economy learns to live with high prices.

Whatever happens I think NZO is a must have stock in any portfolio!,

Excellent post. There are many variations and permentations and its not just as simple as what if...

md. this is a very good post and a good way to look at it is 1 + 1 doesnt always = 2. Just ask your accountant

[neopole]

some folks seem to forget that 1/2 the companys Market Capitalisation is pure cash,
and the mechinisms for producing that cash is in full swing and is about to increase pace.
market sentiment is for traders and punters, and there favourite game is to scare monger the investors so they can get the cash.
otherwise........ why would traders or large corperate buyers be buying the million plus shares available every day?
all whats happening here is an exchange of wealth from the novice to the experienced.

and as NZO is NZs first premier public oil stock..... many moms and dads are getting lost in the real picture of what is happening.
cash is king......... and nzo is racking it in..............
market sentiment is just the name of a game for the big boys.

[Crypto Crude]

Hummm yeah...
So true Neopole...
we just got to hope that NZO doubles up so that IF anything happens then you are just returning a small part of the profits to the market... rather than the other way...

buy low-> sell high...
or buy low -> give abit back to the market-> and still sell high...haha

Mackdunk,
I wont debate what that stock was or was not...
think about the other things I said...
Your talents need to be put to good use...
your talents are wasted if you go on like that...
your not even in the markets, and you come across as if your headed for a nervous breakdown... Chill out... we want to see you in Nov...
A famous legend (not you this time im sorry) once told me that you can make positives out of every situation.... try and turn it into a positive...(check my example at the top of the post)....
I wont say another word...
We will talk about it further in November when you come to the National meeting...A new thread will pop up over the next few weeks/month so check it out for more details...
Im out, catch you all around...
yeahhh harrghh.... riding cowboys...

.^sc

[Corporate]

Still getting huge money for Tui oil! Look at the last two weeks. Tapis down, price per barrel in NZD up!

[Sideshow Bob]

Subsequent to my comments yesterday, ABN Amro have released updated research. NZO's website has been updated to incorporate this research, and refers to an upwardly revised valuation of $2.37 (previously $2.27). A couple of additional comments that may be of interest are:

"We believe NZO has been oversold recently.

Our downside case using US$38/bbl and PRC at market produces a valuation of NZ$1.73.
The Tui valuation, cash and tax loss components total NZ$1.45, higher than the current market price of NZ$1.42, effectively providing today's investors with NZO's Kupe and PRC investments for free.

We have valued NZO on current 2P reserves extraction from its investments, although we continue to believe NZO is well positioned to provide upside from successful exploration and development activity, and increases in reserves. We continue to believe NZO represents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking upside to value despite the recent softening of global oil prices."

Peter,


Two excellent posts in two days - my thanks.

It is worrying however where sharebrokers have upped their valuation.........


SSB

[fish]

Peter,


Two excellent posts in two days - my thanks.

It is worrying however where sharebrokers have upped their valuation.........


SSB

I am not sure what you are worried about
all sharebrokers predictions I have ever seen have undervalued the current return on tui -production is higher than predicted and oil price in nz dollars is higher than predicted.
In worse case scenarios I value nzo above current sp . The most likely scenario double and the best case multiples

[friedegg]

i would be keen to have a sample of the oil and a small piece of the coal to put on my wardrobe,is this possible for you to organise this for people who may be interested in having something to show people

[Casa del Energia]

The writing is still on the wall. Nat. Radio interview with an ex oil engineer tonight..

Upshot - no new big discoveries since 1964.

(I didn't know that).