NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Mick100]

I dont know haw many times I have to tell people to get the message through .
Margin trading is a way of borrowing using your shares as security .
The only way you can get spat out by a margin call is if you only have one stock ,nothing else to sell ,no other way of raising money etc .
I probably have borrowed more than anyone using margin trading to buy nzo . It is just about impossible for me to be spat out-the sp would have to be well under a dollar to get a margin call and then i would probably sell some of my cue,cen tel ,tpw ,fletcher notes infratil notes etc .
I would imagine the same applies for all asb clients-they really make sure you are a good borrower-probably one of the reasons it is making bumper profits

Fish , from reading the comments made about margin lending on this thread, it's obvious that none of these people have ever used margin. I assume that most people, like myself, would be proactive in managing their margin accounts (ie, they wouldn't wait for a margin call before they get their situation soughted out) As you have pointed out - you don't have to sell the shares that you have borrowed against - you can sell anything in your account - it actually makes more sense to sell shares which arn't on margin at all, that way you don't reduce your borrowing capacity when you sell.
Other options are to put additional cash in your account
or sell shares which you can't borrow against and buy shares that you can borrow against, that way boosting your borrowing limit

[fish]

A PDF that contains the full text of the McDouall Stuart valuation dated 1 August 2008 is now available on the NZOG website.

I like the 10.9 cent dividend for this year -ending 2009
and the 15cent dividend for the following year

[Casa del Energia]

Not quite true . . . quote from Wikipedia . . .

Cantarell Field or Cantarell Complex is the largest oil field in Mexico and one of the largest in the world. It was discovered in 1976 by a fisherman, Rudesindo Cantarell. In November 2006 Pemex reported that Cantarell has produced 11,492 million barrels of oil

Whoops - Looks like I'm peddling dud information again. Thanks for the correction. Important to have a straight story.

[neopole]

dSURF I think it has more to do with market sentiment than straight out revenues. If the market in general reverses the trend and trends up NZO will trend higher than most. If the market continues to trend down NZO will swim against the falling tide better than most. I think if the market crashes the money that NZO have in the bank would buy the company back with plenty left over.
1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.
2,Market trends up oil $100 a barrel NZO sp will go much higher.
The market is an irrational force, that is driven by sometimes situations that should have nothing at all to do with anything.
Why on earth did the sp go so high, to drop back so low, in such a short time, other than greed and fear driving the sp. The greed and fear comes from the punters who borrow to buy more than they can afford, driving the share price to far in both directions. I study market sentiment and the likely causes that drive it, rather than get bogged down working out PE ratios which in the extreme market count for very little.
Last year it was nickel in a rising market. This year it is oil in a falling market making it much more difficult to predict. Macdunk

well said MD, i agree and enjoyed reading this post..... not often i can say that.
but this line.......""1, market crashes oil $200 a barrel NZO SP will go much lower.""
i cant agree with, mainly because kupe will be on/or near stream, and the gas is going to a powerstation for NZ electricity production, and that has nothing to do with TA, FA or market sentiment, as the country needs its light bulbs on, and pike will be adding to the income stream also.
IMHO, NZO has its bases covered.

[Nitaa]

I slight drop in oil prices is more than offset by the drop in the kiwi $. Great news for revenue.

[bbob]

TUI 1.6 mill barrels 1st July to 14th Aug ~ 35000 b/d. Bad weather has to some degree impacted on production but probably production dropping off. Still so much better than predicted.

Would be interesting to know the status and impact of the FPSO work.

[fish]

[QUOTE=bbob;218541]TUI 1.6 mill barrels 1st July to 14th Aug ~ 35000 b/d. Bad weather has to some degree impacted on production but probably production dropping off. Still so much better than predicted.

Fantastic production-200000 barrels for nzo-another 30 million in bank-must be over $300million now and the cash will keep rolling in .


NZO must be a prime takeover target .
It would be a wise move if management started a buy back or paid a dividend to raise the sp .
Annual report due less than 2 weeks .

[Corporate]

Fantastic production-200000 barrels for nzo-another 30 million in bank-must be over $300million now and the cash will keep rolling in .

Yeah they are creaming it - cash will be about $290m at this stage.

Since year end I put revenue at about $36 Million (10cps) after only 46 days.

[Hoop]

Recent takeover talk by posters, highlights a part of investor's discipline that is largely ignored or forgotten about nowadays...that is, observing the signals a company emits persuading that skilled investor to pre-empt the market (ignoring TA downtrends and possibly bad FA) and prematurely buying in to take advantage of a possible short/medium term future T/O reaction.

The early signals to watch for are
1 The shareholding register becoming public knowledge
2 Minor shareholders becoming publicly active with certain issues
3 Company's financial affairs becoming public, a public call for the books to be looked into
4 Some sort of stupid issue being raised and blown out of proportion
5 This relates to the previous 1 to 4.. The company management is barraged with all sorts of negative comments and the media can be used as a weapon, via media propaganda.
6 The frequency of takeovers rising within the same market sector that the company operates in.
7 Unusual changes in the stocks buy/sell patterns (under the radar)



Pre -Defence to a takeover, signals
It is important for an investor to ID these activities within the company to confirm one's belief that something is brewing
1 Investor suddenly sees other Investor names changing from individuals to Nominee holdings within the Company Register or some other hard to track down entity.
2 All outstanding debts get paid of ahead of time, or a company in financial trouble some sort of consolidation with a friendly.
3 Subsidiary companies activity, releasing extra shares and cross sharing deals
4 Poison Pills .. Sudden announcement of Bonus shares or rights issue issued or exercised to shareholders at a precise moment in time in the future or some other share issue type mechanism below market price.
5 Shark repellents... This could be various activities e.g sudden change of corporate goals or activity..a call to amend the company's Constitution or a change to "control" clauses..golden parachute clause added, restricted voting voting rights.super-majority clause...etc
6 A White Knight suddenly appears (usually occurs after the T/O attempt has been announced but not always) or a "merger" with a friendly company with cross share holdings and expensive break up fees.
7 Company announces a buy back program.
8 Spin off a fast growing subsidiary to reduce the company's attractiveness.

There's probably a few others that I haven't mentioned ..but I think you get the idea ..

Disc PPP + 90% cash

[Nitaa]

Adding to the las post, dont leave out TR as part of the equation should something devlop sooner or later. He will look after No1 where he can