NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[duncan macgregor]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunk

md. The market is irrational. What the price is and what it should be in your eyes will often be 2 different things.

Personally i think the real winners are the long term holders. The ones who stayed in whilst all thje scepticism and other news pushed the sp down only to continue a long up trend.

What is important for a longer term holder is not the the price is now but the price is when they sell. therefore the various short terms ups and downs are largely irrelevant.

I do agree on one of your points and that its bad (or at best risky) to borrow to invest. However i see no problem if someone tapped into their home load facility to use 100k when they have well over $1m in equity. So its not always clear cut but in principle i agree with your comment.

I reiterate, one cannot ignore the fundamentals. right now there hasnt been much changed in the last 6 months from nzo's perspective.

discl. hold

[arjay]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue.

[duncan macgregor]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue.

The winners were the ones selling the options not converting. Second best were the ones that converted and were smart enough to have a stop loss on the heads. Over the years this has been a share where a stop loss and a buy signal at the other end would have saved you heaps.
Thats all water under the bridge, what counts is today going forward. The market in general is downtrending leading to a crash in my opinion, so i expect NZO to go side ways then follow the market down. Market sentiment is the reason the sp is so low the fundamentals wont hold the price up even if as i expect oil reaches $200 a barrel in 2009 and crashes the market. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

The winners have also BEEN the long-term holders Nita. For many of us selling the free options and collecting the first dividend will have more-or-less paid of the capital cost of our head shares. Now having the SP drop from around 5x to 4x what we paid for those shares is not a big issue.

arjay. 100% correct. Actually that is what i mean. Sorry for misleading.

[Chalice]

The share price at $1-45 is much lower than i would have expected at this time. I would have thought resistance at $1-50 would have been the bottom. Greed and fear is the controling factor in this company, with the greed of borrowing to buy what they could not afford, raising the share price to over optimistic levels. The fear has now taken over, pushing the price down to lower than expected levels.
The only winners are the traders with the long term holders staring at a share price not that much different to its high four years ago. I think that borrowing to buy is a bad thing for the market in general, sending out bad signals to potential new investors. I now expect the sp to track sideways for a time, then follow the market down when it crashes. Macdunk

Whilst its always nice to see a constantly uptrending sharerpice for any share investment short or long term & I agree below $1.50 does few any good, leveraged or not - we live in interesting times, especially for Oilers - for the reasons you and other have indicated in many posts.

If you are a non leveraged long term holder, who cares?

Apart from a dented ego, I cannot see any downside to NZO SP LT.

I do acknowledge the benefit of borrowing to invest, and whilst it may/may not be having a detrimental effect on NZO SP at the moment I think it is a great mechanism - what % of businesses, property etc are purchased with 100% cash?

I think that evidence of people being willing to borrow indicates faith in a company, which is positive, (warranted or not) - but I think the basic fundamentals of NZO equate to unarguable faith LT.

If some investors have over done it so be it - can't think of another investment vehicle where this doesn't occur from time to time, and best of luck to those in a position to take advantage!

BTW - Mc D No comment on my post #6162???

[dsurf]

Two of my favourite sentiment based contrarian indicators and one upcoming "event"are indicating a possible bottom at this price.

1/ Macd is gloating & reminding LT shareholders that this was around the peak 4 years ago. Obviously the four years ago resistance is now fantastic support! Also saying that the SP will fall " even though undervalued" due to fear etc. Therefore due a rebound

2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?

3/ Event = buying on expectation of a rise pre announcement on; broker advice, traders getting ready etc

[Mr Tommy]

Big jump in oil today.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4665182a13.html

Interesting comment in there ...

Dealers were also eyeing the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, for signs they may decide to trim supply. Opec meets on September 9 to review output policy. "As prices drop, Saudi Arabia may cut back on its recent increase in production, which could halt the most recent price decline," the US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly review of the market.

[Bilo]

AWE share price staging a recovery on gob stopping results announced today, with Tui's star turn.
kiwi pessimists to the fore on NZO as usual despite oil looking likely to break 110 to 120 trading range with the slightest provocation.

[Casa del Energia]

Two of my favourite sentiment based contrarian indicators and one upcoming "event"are indicating a possible bottom at this price.

1/ Macd is gloating & reminding LT shareholders that this was around the peak 4 years ago. Obviously the four years ago resistance is now fantastic support! Also saying that the SP will fall " even though undervalued" due to fear etc. Therefore due a rebound

2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?

3/ Event = buying on expectation of a rise pre announcement on; broker advice, traders getting ready etc

2/ Very few posted on this thread - must have been a rough week - capitulation?
- Me personally - It has been the dreaded lurgie - knocked out flat for a week with a cold from the other side of hell. From what I can tell 50% of staff in some businesses around town have had the same problem as me - so maybe not a lot of people on deck.

But primarily - not much to say.. oil not moving much, No news from the wellhead, PRC still digging the same hole as a month ago, Kupe still building base facilities. And the sp dithers around sideways. All ho hum.

The only excitement seems to be responses to McDunks posts. Keep it up, we'll die of boredom otherwise.