NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Unicorn]

I think the point to realise is that most Brokers analysies assume a price of oil of less than $US100. The price of oil is volatile and I agree with KiwiBear that oil could turn south again and test lower levels e.g. $105. But from there it goes up. $150 plus. Demand destruction may delay it but it will get there.

As I posted before, the NZO result on Friday is going to be BIG. It will remind me of Cassius Clay after he beat Sonny Liston.

" I shook up the world!!!!! " ( and I have only had half a glass of red ). I have been waiting for this for four years. It is going to surprise a few...especially in this dull old investment climate. Got your champagne ready Digger?

Hi Bermuda

A few things to consider prior to the release of the results ...

With the new financial reporting rules taking effect for this set of results, will NZO need to revalue their PRC holding at market and report that as part of the profit for the year?

NZO has amortised part of the cost of Tui, and thereby artificially reduced profits reported thus far. But with the increase in announced Tui reserves, there is theoretically more oil in place now than there was a year ago - which in practical terms makes that amortisation rather illogical. Will the additional reserves reflect in an increase in nta and/or profit?

With a week to go until the end of August it looks like Tui will produce about 2.25M barrels in the first 2 months. This is a quarter of the forecast production for the year. Is the forecast starting to look conservative, even at this early stage?

[fish]

I think the point to realise is that most Brokers analysies assume a price of oil of less than $US100. The price of oil is volatile and I agree with KiwiBear that oil could turn south again and test lower levels e.g. $105. But from there it goes up. $150 plus. Demand destruction may delay it but it will get there.

As I posted before, the NZO result on Friday is going to be BIG. It will remind me of Cassius Clay after he beat Sonny Liston.

" I shook up the world!!!!! " ( and I have only had half a glass of red ). I have been waiting for this for four years. It is going to surprise a few...especially in this dull old investment climate. Got your champagne ready Digger?

Spoke to digger a couple days ago-he sends his apologies-has moved house and is waiting to get new links set up .

Looks to me that you are going to be very close to your prediction of $1.70 this week-might even prove to be a little conservative by friday afternoon .

[troyvdh]

...bermuda...tell me have you ever witnessed a profit like that posted by AWE..........

i hope your right .....but what was the response by the market ....?....

[bermuda]

...bermuda...tell me have you ever witnessed a profit like that posted by AWE..........

i hope your right .....but what was the response by the market ....?....

That is what I meant by my earlier post about NZO hitting 170. It was made I think just after the AWE result came out and the sp had climbed to a daily 15% rise.( when NZO was about 150 ) I thought if AWE can show a 15% rise on that result,..so can NZO...and some.

AWE, a licence to print money. And NZO is getting to be the same way.

NZO, very undervalued. Let's see what the market thinks on Friday. Cheers

[Nitaa]

That is what I meant by my earlier post about NZO hitting 170. It was made I think just after the AWE result came out and the sp had climbed to a daily 15% rise.( when NZO was about 150 ) I thought if AWE can show a 15% rise on that result,..so can NZO...and some.

AWE, a licence to print money. And NZO is getting to be the same way.

NZO, very undervalued. Let's see what the market thinks on Friday. Cheers

Bermuda. i must say that you should consider being a full time trader. Since your call the other day, brokers and alikes heard you and automaticall shunted the sp up 12 cents in just over 2 days.

Perhaps you can consider running seminars for day traders.

IMO there are 2 main reasons for the suppresed shareprice in awe, nzo and tui. although they are producing many pundits see price of oil may reduce significantly therefore analysts are still basing their estimates on oil beingh around the $50 mark imo. The other obvious reason is the credit crunch that has squeezed money supply and confidence

It seems crazy the likes of ppp is where it is. I was fortunatel and sold most of them at 35 cps about 12 months ago for a rediculious profit. now at around 28 cpsoil prices have increased heaps, $NZ has fallen, reserves have increased but the sp has langashed. people will wake up soon and i dont think AT or TR cares one hoot what the sp is right now. They will and are smiling all the way to the bank.

[AMR]

I was reading up on CVN today but I did manage to catch a bit about AWE. Brokers are quite bearish on it due to Tui's decline in the future. NZO has Pike and Kupe so a much better investment. I hope Maitland can fill Tui's shoes when it comes in for PPP.

I wouldn't be too concerned about the annual report. These things cause blips but nothing over a longer term. The quarterly caused only a two day spike in the share price. And as of these few days the trend is up. I buy back in soon.

[sideline]

.....................many pundits see price of oil may reduce significantly therefore analysts are still basing their estimates on oil beingh around the $50 mark imo. ............

I found an essay titled "Oil turbulence in the next decade" downloadable from http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/publi...&&type=summary rather enlightening.
The outfit (CIEP) seems pretty conservative and claims to be endorsed by BP, Shell, Total etc.

About the OIL PRICE they say:

Until recently the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last
barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs.
This currently puts a structural floor of $110 a barrel under the oil price (WTI).

The largest part of the $110 a barrel floor (about 70-75%) is determined by the marginal
cost of supply, currently around $80. The remaining $30 a barrel (or 25-30%) is determined
by supply-demand fundamentals, a short-term risk premium, and long term scarcity and policy.
.....

[Bilo]

.......a bit about AWE. Brokers are quite bearish on it due to Tui's decline in the future. NZO has Pike and Kupe so a much better investment.

As soon as you mention "broker" I read person licensed to sell and appraise" (Oxford dictionary. Not necessarily capable of giving you a good steer...

I am not sure how many of you noticed the latest change in the shape of the Tui field diagram. As DS has commented previously when the consortium conservatively increased the reserves yet again; " it is just much bigger than we originally thought".

Hopefully the following two pictures illustrate my observations...the shaded areas have grown!

You should be able to see that Tui could be at least twice as large as currently booked. Future decline? We haven't seen much of it yet.

But to take a leaf out of the broker's book - do your own research. This is just my humble opinion. Exploring close to where you have already found hydrocarbons has to be the way to go, also a saying borrowed from DS.

[Corporate]

Oil at - 118.34, up 2.07 as i type this! Star alignment!

[JBmurc]

Oil at - 118.34, up 2.07 as i type this! Star alignment!

Too right----- Cash at bank + current cashflow +forward cashfows =massive market rerate tomorrow
-Glad to have a ASX CFD long in place at 118 target sell high 130's-low140's

-a special divie would really be the kicker to the SP eitherway NZO will be in the spotlight after the annoucment ....New highs?? soon