NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[duncan macgregor]

Lets hope that some of you will pause and think about why after a great announcement has been made, that the sp has dropped slightly in a rising market. There is no fundamental reason for this, it goes against every FA indicator that there is. It only proves the point, that the traders control the price making market sentiment the ruling factor, with PE factors a distant second.
I would have expected that after announcing another dividend, that the mums and dads might have been enticed to buy a few. I still expect the sp to get up to the 180c mark before the market crashes when oil gets up to the $200 a barrel mark so keep those following stop losses up its all going to hit the fan. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

The market seem to have already expecting a good result, so no surprises there. Oil have come down over night in the US, hence the sp weakness.

[Chalice]

The market seem to have already expecting a good result, so no surprises there. Oil have come down over night in the US, hence the sp weakness.

I think the reason for the drop is the result, while fantastic, didn't meet or exceed Expectations (100mill+) - otherwise a 5 cent dividend payable in circa 1 month whould have countered any oil price drop/SP sentiment.

Hopp - although there will be traders taking a profit from the 140s there are undoubtely many (and not necessarily traders) who purchased at 1.60-190, beleiving in Fundamentals, and having seen 1.42 have decided its cut and run time - why else would they forgo the divvy if not Disgrunteled with the underperforming shareprice?

Those who had to due to leveraging issues would have done so in the 140's.

I'm with McD on his post above.

[Snapper]

Snapper, here is Oil $NX vs $US plus the exchange rate plus NZO. NZO shareprice is more closely linked with the Oil price in $NZ.
Isn't this exactly what you would expect?

Check out Phaedrus's chart again - over 2008 NZO has very closely correlated with the price of oil and today is nothing new, oil goes down overnight and NZO drops a couple of cents on open. MD, if oil goes to $200, where do you think all the Kiwisaver money (and all the other Super funds) is going to go? it's got to go somewhere and I don't think it'll be property.

[Nitaa]

Lets hope that some of you will pause and think about why after a great announcement has been made, that the sp has dropped slightly in a rising market. There is no fundamental reason for this, it goes against every FA indicator that there is. It only proves the point, that the traders control the price making market sentiment the ruling factor, with PE factors a distant second.
I would have expected that after announcing another dividend, that the mums and dads might have been enticed to buy a few. I still expect the sp to get up to the 180c mark before the market crashes when oil gets up to the $200 a barrel mark so keep those following stop losses up its all going to hit the fan. Macdunk

MD. I agree it was a great result and announcement. However this was in line with expectation. No surprises in this area. On top of that oil dropped a little bit overnight hence perhaps slight drop. Any variation in sp today or the next few days will come in the form of 2 things. 1 some will seee this result as a chance to exit. 2 others not up to take may see it as a stock to buy. As Bermuda and i both pointed out on Monday, we saw it as an opportunity to buy now sell today for the traders. End result will be a 10 cps plus gain. Yes there qare some mums and dads buying today judging by some of the very small trades

fundamentally this is still a great stock is a general bad market.

This might be a good opportunity for traders to pause for a moment and think about the longer term fundamentals as an opportunity to invest if they have the money. .

Your comment about the sp going to 180 cps then the market crashes is extremely baseless at the moment. I would say the chinesre markets have already crashed. if the chinese stock market crashes the same amount as what has this year then there will be no market in china. It is impossible for them to lose any more than what they already have. eg. if 53% drop this year represents $100 trillion then it is impossible for the sharemarket to tank more than that amount. do you agree?

[duncan macgregor]

NITA, The chinese market only dropped back to a realistic level which happens in any market that gets over hyped with unrealistic expectations. Its a bit like NZO being 97c to over 190c then back to 160c being under valued then over valued then back to reality.
Its what happens when the DOW crashes, aided by China manipulating the resource sector.China takes over number one spot without a shot being fired. America poses a great threat with its war mongering ways, what better method than pull the rug from under its economy. If you take a closer look at what companies china has been buying in to in the resource sector you will see the pattern emerge. Oil at $200 a barrel NITA you can bet your knickers on that in 2009. Macdunk
DISCL only joking about the knickers i know you are a bloke that wears underdungers.

[dsurf]

SP did rise - first trades 1.64 then fell when was obvious that the result would not bring enough buying momentum so traders out. Mum & dad don't know yet! It will be in the papers so lets see what they do monday. Hope Gustav strengthens.

NTA is interesting. $1.21 per share including PRC at "book value" $66m. At June 30 was trading at $2.35 & market value of shares (approx 85m) was $200m. Currently trading at $1.90 & stake worth $161m. So $161m - $66m =$95.5m unrecognised. With NZO having approx 400m shares / $95.5m = 24c per share.

So NTA is really $1.21 + 24c = $145 today.

This means that Kupe (80% complete) & PRC upside & any Tui future profits are worth 15c with the SP at $1.60

Gotta agree that markets are not rational

[Financially dependant]

SP did rise - first trades 1.64 then fell when was obvious that the result would not bring enough buying momentum so traders out. Mum & dad don't know yet! It will be in the papers so lets see what they do monday. Hope Gustav strengthens.

Gotta agree that markets are not rational

This is what I have been thinking, SP move up on Monday when mum and dad have read the papers and the oil price moves up over the weekend (there is a line up of Hurricanes east of Florida).

[777]

SP did rise - first trades 1.64 then fell when was obvious that the result would not bring enough buying momentum so traders out. Mum & dad don't know yet! It will be in the papers so lets see what they do monday. Hope Gustav strengthens.

NTA is interesting. $1.21 per share including PRC at "book value" $66m. At June 30 was trading at $2.35 & market value of shares (approx 85m) was $200m. Currently trading at $1.90 & stake worth $161m. So $161m - $66m =$95.5m unrecognised. With NZO having approx 400m shares / $95.5m = 24c per share.

So NTA is really $1.21 + 24c = $145 today.

This means that Kupe (80% complete) & PRC upside & any Tui future profits are worth 15c with the SP at $1.60

Gotta agree that markets are not rational

Also to add earnings from 30/6 to now. Approx another 6c and still increasing.

[fish]

SP did rise - first trades 1.64 then fell when was obvious that the Gotta agree that markets are not rational

Its this kind of irrationality that provides such good buying opportunities-nzo is a great buy at current prices . This dividend will mean that those who borrowed to buy into the rights issue no longer need to worry about interest payments or having to sell shares .
Will be good for the sp in the next few weeks . Suspect it will be in tomorrows papers and sp will climb on monday-unless it over-reacts to geopolitical events .

Anyway I will stop whinging about lack of divi and start celebrating success . will definately not be selling my nzo .