NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Sehnsucht888]

After the games 3 million cars are allowed back on the roads and all the businesses that had been poluting the skys over china will start up again.
Thats sure to have some impact, just what is uncertain.

"China, the world's No. 4 economy, may have lost as much as 3% of its estimated 24.6 trillion-yuan ($4.2 trillion) gross domestic product by shutting down factories in Beijing and surrounding areas for two months, Mr Tao said.

Some factories, including Beijing Shougang, the nation's fourth-biggest steelmaker, were evicted from the capital.

The affected regions generate about 26% of China's economic output, so the world's fastest-growing major economy will slow during the next two months, Goldman Sachs says."

We are talking major industry offline, and coming back on.

[Bilo]

OPEC cutting by 500,000bopd:

http://news.smh.com.au/world/opec-to...0910-4dd3.html

Tropical storm IKE keeping oil and gas turned off in Gulf of Mexico.
Some think that IKE will gain strength as it progresses towards Texas/Mexico

Interesting to see how much control will be exerted to keep the POO around USD100.

[Casa del Energia]

After the games 3 million cars are allowed back on the roads and all the businesses that had been poluting the skys over china will start up again.
Thats sure to have some impact, just what is uncertain.

"China, the world's No. 4 economy, may have lost as much as 3% of its estimated 24.6 trillion-yuan ($4.2 trillion) gross domestic product by shutting down factories in Beijing and surrounding areas for two months, Mr Tao said.

Some factories, including Beijing Shougang, the nation's fourth-biggest steelmaker, were evicted from the capital.

The affected regions generate about 26% of China's economic output, so the world's fastest-growing major economy will slow during the next two months, Goldman Sachs says."

We are talking major industry offline, and coming back on.

Points taken. However - note that the total number of private motor vehicles in China is 25 million - that's 12% of cars off the road - quite a proportion BUT there are 550 million cars on the planet - - the 3 million cars off the road in Beijing is about 1/2% of the total. It's difficult to see how Beijing cars are going to have a global impact post Olympics.
Certainly no impact on NZO sp?

[Bilo]

OPEC cutting by 500,000bopd:

Tropical storm IKE keeping oil and gas turned off in Gulf of Mexico.
Some think that IKE will gain strength as it progresses towards Texas/Mexico

Interesting to see how much control will be exerted to keep the POO around USD100.

Latest forecast has IKE increasing in strength with winds reaching 105kts before hitting the coast. Massive storm surge possible. Sometimes I wonder if Americans go into denial mode during election periods....someone is detailed to keep the lid on energy prices - what could the POO go to when artifically suppressed for a period?

[Nitaa]

Latest forecast has IKE increasing in strength with winds reaching 105kts before hitting the coast. Massive storm surge possible. Sometimes I wonder if Americans go into denial mode during election periods....someone is detailed to keep the lid on energy prices - what could the POO go to when artifically suppressed for a period?

Bilo. Without sounding critical, the storms etc only have a very small temporary impact. In fact you only have to look at the oil prices slide over the last few weeks and along with the amount of hurricanes it is largley irrevelant.

The biggiest issue over a medium to longer term is the supply and demand. OPEC cutting oil supply is a measure they do not want prices to go too low. I also think they dont want it to go too high. Ultimatley they will want to find an optimum level that encourages demand and maitain the highest price possible.

The dramatic rise already showed how much of an impact it has on global economies especially the 3rd world countries. To a greater degree we are all at the mercy of the people pulling the strings.

[Bilo]

Bilo. Without sounding critical, the storms etc only have a very small temporary impact. In fact you only have to look at the oil prices slide over the last few weeks and along with the amount of hurricanes it is largley irrevelant.

The biggiest issue over a medium to longer term is the supply and demand. OPEC cutting oil supply is a measure they do not want prices to go too low.

I agree Nita. 90pc of US gulf of Mexico oil and gas production has been out for a couple of weeks now and IKE will prolong this. Any surplus inventory that was in the system B4 will be reduced and reducing further. Wait for the inventory rpt tonight - see if they bend the truth as much as usual...

On the demand side reductions in use are usually short lived.
On the supply side disruptions to the production activities have an effect for many years.

[Mingeathinaikos]

Both you and Digger have a view that China will 're-start' after the games. But Beijing and its precincts are small part of a very big place. Moreover, there are signs of a property slump appearing there - and property slowdown being the first step on the downside of the business cycle may mean that China (India too?) are finally obeying normal economics and come to terms with the fact that gravity exists.
At any rate - crystal balling on Chinas energy consumption is a hazardous place - they keep their inventory figures to themselves (if they actually know them anyway) and coal reserves and production figures are a pile of bulldust). In short - nobody really knows - including the Chinese.

But then - I'm probably a wrong on this as the next bloke.

'MOREOVER', you have to be French?

[Casa del Energia]

'MOREOVER', you have to be French?

Mes non. Born and bred NZ - folks South American/Anglais, "Casa del Energia' es Espanol. Is 'moreover' a French habit?

[Bilo]

Latest forecast has IKE increasing in strength with winds reaching 105kts before hitting the coast. Massive storm surge possible. Sometimes I wonder if Americans go into denial mode during election periods....someone is detailed to keep the lid on energy prices - what could the POO go to when artifically suppressed for a period?

Latest forecast has IKE "as a very large storm" "regardless of where it hits the coast its effects will be felt over a very large area"
winds now forecast to reach 115kt before hitting the coast and the storm is trending northwards

If i was in the region i would be driving north - Gustav was a pup that turned pussy. IKE looks the real deal.

The inventory was as expected (by me) but the oil price response was muted - as it probably should be as no wants to profit from others misfortune - or do they now in these dog eat dog market places?

USD 100 appears to be the agreed price..

NZD going southwards. Could we be back to less than US60c in the near future? NZO & PRC still looking to be in a sweet spot.

[fish]

[QUOTE=Bilo;222566]Latest forecast has IKE "as a very large storm" "regardless of where it hits the coast its effects will be felt over a very large area"
winds now forecast to reach 115kt before hitting the coast and the storm is trending northwards

If i was in the region i would be driving north - Gustav was a pup that turned pussy. IKE looks the real deal.

The inventory was as expected (by me) but the oil price response was muted - as it probably should be as no wants to profit from others misfortune - or do they now in these dog eat dog market places?

USD 100 appears to be the agreed price..

NZD going southwards. Could we be back to less than US60c in the near future? NZO & PRC still looking to be in a sweet spot.[/QUOT

Looks as if Ike is going to hit at the heart of GOM oil rigs and will strengthen to H3.
Most of the oil production has been shutdown-yet the oil price still falls-in us dollars .
nzo sp continues to keep a close relation to poo- fall-down to 151
Tui continues to produce well with higher production figures and oil price (in NZ$ around $800000 a day ) .
With such strong cash flow a twice yearly dividend would be in order for next year as well