NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[boysy]

Opex is under $10 a barrel if this helps in any ways

[Sideshow Bob]

I am basing it after operating expenses/shipping. If i am not mistaken is about 10% of the cost. Someone can correct me here pls.

Hi Nita,

Hope all is well.

Total opex for Tui is stated at <$10 US/barrel.

http://www.nzog.com/presentations - Forsyth Barr presentation, page $12. Also say later on the NZO's share of opex for Tui until 2012 is expected to be $44m US.


Cheers
SSB

[Nitaa]

Hi Nita,

Hope all is well.

Total opex for Tui is stated at <$10 US/barrel.

http://www.nzog.com/presentations - Forsyth Barr presentation, page $12. Also say later on the NZO's share of opex for Tui until 2012 is expected to be $44m US.


Cheers
SSB

Thanks SSB. all is well and appreciate the clarification

To get back to my earlier post. Malaysia Tapis 44 which tui oil is a good guide is around $US110 less op expenses make it about $US100 x $NZ1.50 (as of 2 minutes ago). ie 35,000 bopd = a tidy $NZ525,000. All this and Pike is all but ready and Kupe on stream next year.

[the machine]

one would expect tapis to surge a bit after effects of hurricane ike impact on refining capacity in usa

M

[arjay]

I finally found a copy of Twilight in the Desert and read it. I had to go to London for it though - quite a carbon footprint eh? If anyone is desperate for a copy, Foyles bookstore still have a few copies on the shelves.

I agree with Bermuda - it's a sobering read. It's well researched although the writing style is a bit over dramatic. If I had read this book at the time of publishing I would have come away expecting a major supply crisis from the Saudis in 2006. This didn't happen, and clearly Saudi's ability to supply may be a bit better than Mr Simmons would have us believe. Nevertheless, there are some good lessons to be taken from the book. I was very interested in reading about how many oil producers (the British in the North Sea especially) have squandered the ability to maximize field oil recovery over the longer term, by overproduction for short-term gain. This made me think about Tui. Has production from the Tui area reservoirs been tailored for maximum total oil recovery, or maximum volume of oil during the operators accounting horizon? Hopefully the former.

[fish]

Thanks SSB. all is well and appreciate the clarification

To get back to my earlier post. Malaysia Tapis 44 which tui oil is a good guide is around $US110 less op expenses make it about $US100 x $NZ1.50 (as of 2 minutes ago). ie 35,000 bopd = a tidy $NZ525,000. All this and Pike is all but ready and Kupe on stream next year.

I think you are under-estimating Nita-if you look at tui on the nzog website you will see the average price so far this financial year is over $180 nz per barrel and production performance is well above recent predictions despite some lost days



Oil Production since 1 July 2008:

1 July-10 September: Approx 2.6 million barrels. NZOG's share of production approx 325,000 barrels.
divide by 72 days=4514 barrels a day at 170 a barrel=$767380 per day after costs but before tax and royalties

Please check the figures and let me know if you agree
Hoping for another special dividend in April !

[trackers]

I finally found a copy of Twilight in the Desert and read it. I had to go to London for it though - quite a carbon footprint eh? If anyone is desperate for a copy, Foyles bookstore still have a few copies on the shelves.

I agree with Bermuda - it's a sobering read. It's well researched although the writing style is a bit over dramatic. If I had read this book at the time of publishing I would have come away expecting a major supply crisis from the Saudis in 2006. This didn't happen, and clearly Saudi's ability to supply may be a bit better than Mr Simmons would have us believe. Nevertheless, there are some good lessons to be taken from the book. I was very interested in reading about how many oil producers (the British in the North Sea especially) have squandered the ability to maximize field oil recovery over the longer term, by overproduction for short-term gain. This made me think about Tui. Has production from the Tui area reservoirs been tailored for maximum total oil recovery, or maximum volume of oil during the operators accounting horizon? Hopefully the former.

Hey Arjay,

Read it too, pretty much the same conclusions... Very interesting, quite worrying (though not quite at the doomsday type levels M.simmons would have us believe).

As for over production, with a standby well at TUI allowing for rotation, don't think we have/will have that problem.

[Rabbi]

I got that book on loan ( Twilight in the Desert) from Serpie at the National Sharetrader Convention. We just bring them back to the next meeting and re-cycle them thereby enhancing everyone's education at no expense. I have to say it's very interesting how Saudi Oil is running down, and one could say -,at $150- barrel this has been factored in. So at $100 barrel, the whole scenario has been discounted again, thanks to Index traders and the like.

The Reality is- as Winston Peters was wont to say-that Oil is a commodity that is a finite resource. All we need is a price that keeps everyone fillling their tanks and the upstream producers in good profit. $100 barrel might now seem cheap to most pundits, and the Upstream Companys such as NZO will still be raking it in.

NZO a steal a $1.50 on this assumption!

[sideline]

I got that book on loan ( Twilight in the Desert) from Serpie at the National Sharetrader Convention. We just bring them back to the next meeting and re-cycle them thereby enhancing everyone's education at no expense. I have to say it's very interesting how Saudi Oil is running down, and one could say -,at $150- barrel this has been factored in. So at $100 barrel, the whole scenario has been discounted again, thanks to Index traders and the like.
............

Public libraries in the Auckland region usually have a few copies, catalogue search shows
- 2 in Auckland
- 2 in Waitakere
- 3 in Takapuna

Personally I found the style of the book a little bit too 'preachy', in places speculative and exaggerated.
I much preferred the sometimes dry but more factual style of K. Deffeyes. (Beyond Oil, the view from
Hubbard's peak).

What I got though from the detailed descriptions of the Saudi oil fields is the impression that
there still could still be a pretty big resource underground but the problem is recoverability
and production rate against a growing world demand. Those factors translate into a rising
price for production (both financial and energywise) and of course a peaking/declining supply
somewhen (soon (- my opinion)).

[Sideshow Bob]

If anyone wants to borrow a copy of Twilight in the Desert, I'm happy to loan them mine.

I just ordered mine through Uni Book Shop in Dunedin and took about 10 days - $26.

Cheers