NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[sideline]

maybe the fall of op will cause a rig to become available [and at a cheaper cost] for tui drilling next year

m

Exactly what I think. In the current climate a few explorers might find financing projects a bit
difficult and that could free up a few drill slots at a reasonable rate. I hope the TUI consortium
are working to get their expansion plans drill-ready as we speak.

[duncan macgregor]

I am assuming there will be plenty of people with leveraging in NZO who are force sellers? I recall posters on here talking about mortgaging their houses to buy NZO not too long back.

The very same thing happened a few years ago when NZO went up into the dollar thirties some people even lost a farm if i am not mistaken. with the sp at 120c i notice a complete absense of the peak oilers and other rampers in the forum. The market decides the price, learn to study the market and what drives it.
All companies are in for a hiding in the market regardless of fundamentals learn to accept that fact, and reposition yourself when it turns in a couple of years time.
The lower it goes the steeper the uptrend when this is all over. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

You gotto have a laugh at this.

Someone is ramping NZO sp at the Trademe message board.. ROFL!!!

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/M...eadid=29004147

[fish]

I have just received back the news from Chris Roberts that i was so hoping to hear.
Bacically the company has ongoing committments to increasing the fluid capacity of the Umuroa and cost still towards Kupe.However the very good news is that the company has so far made no acquistion committments and in fact is still exploring this area.To my thinking that is better news than Pike stricking first coal.
Cheers Digger

Great news digger .
Did Chris give you any idea of the current nz value of the cash they hold ? Do you know how much is invested in us dollars-with more than a 20% drop in the nz/us on this plus the $50 million or so net earnings from tui this 1st financial quarter the cash backing must be very close to $1 nz a share .

[Casa del Energia]

The very same thing happened a few years ago when NZO went up into the dollar thirties some people even lost a farm if i am not mistaken. with the sp at 120c i notice a complete absense of the peak oilers and other rampers in the forum. The market decides the price, learn to study the market and what drives it.
All companies are in for a hiding in the market regardless of fundamentals learn to accept that fact, and reposition yourself when it turns in a couple of years time.
The lower it goes the steeper the uptrend when this is all over. Macdunk

No, I'm still here - biding my time. It's probably 'out of fashion' at the moment - but peak oil is real, and it is going to rain on our parade. And it's part of my reason for buying NOG. Hydrogen fuel cells are still 20 years off, fusion has been off the menu for ten years, solar still only gets 16% efficiency at the outside, we need to drain all the oceans to grow enough sugar cane for ethanol, Nuclear fission is plain dangerous (Although I have some Uranium exploration shares in bottom drawer just in case) - - oil is still the only thing going.

Since I don't need to sell now or in the foreseeable future - then what the market does at this moment is irrelevant to me (Although if I sold now - I would still realise a profit)

Hows that for a ramp? Actually, I would be pleased to see what the bottom is - and purchase more off some poor slob who is either leveraged or doesn't see more than 2 nano seconds into the future or both.

Plus - NZO is sitting on the biggest pile of cash this side of the black stump in an aquisition market that is getting is getting cheaper by the atto second.


Ramp-o-matic.

[Ham_eggs]

I am assuming there will be plenty of people with leveraging in NZO who are force sellers? I recall posters on here talking about mortgaging their houses to buy NZO not too long back.

I agree. Surely only those needing the funds would sell at a time when the fundamentals are so sound. Sad state of affairs if you ask me. Comes back the the old adage of never investing what you may need.

[Unicorn]

Great news digger .
Did Chris give you any idea of the current nz value of the cash they hold ? Do you know how much is invested in us dollars-with more than a 20% drop in the nz/us on this plus the $50 million or so net earnings from tui this 1st financial quarter the cash backing must be very close to $1 nz a share .

Hi Fish

Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.

So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.

The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.

[Sideshow Bob]

You gotto have a laugh at this.

Someone is ramping NZO sp at the Trademe message board.. ROFL!!!

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Community/M...eadid=29004147

Quality!!

Although need all the ramping we can get......

[Sideshow Bob]

Hi Fish

Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.

So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.

The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.

Does the $285m count the $20m paid out in dividends recently?

[fish]

Hi Fish

Your figures are a bit more optimistic than my estimates. For the last quarter I would expect something more like ...
32,000 average barrels per day
* 12.5% share
* $170NZ average price less $15NZ costs = $155NZ
* 92 days
- 20% royalty
- 20% tax
= about $36M NZ, on top of the $285M at year end.

So cash might be nearer 80cents per share, if none has been directed into Kupe.

The 20% drop in the exchange rate probably does not have much impact, if the income is brought back onshore upon receipt.

Hi Unicorn,

I understand nzo has significant investments in US dollars -?60 million. The recent fall in nz dollar by 20% could have given a significant unrealised currency gain .

Production performance from the NZO website-Oil Production since 1 July 2008:

1 July-5 October: Approx 3.3 million barrels. NZOG's share of production approx 410,000 barrels.

NB: In mid-September there was a planned slow down in production to allow for tank cleaning. Full production has resumed with a forecast daily production rate of approx 34,000 barrels of oil.

The website also gives weekly prices obtained converted to nz dollars-



In july the average price was $193 a barrel , august 178 and september 160 and a weighted average looks close to $180

So 400000 barrels at $180 = $72 million approx gross

Additionally what I like is that they are expecting to resume producing at 34000 barrels a day which is still giving nzo over 4000 barrels a day and a gross of around $600000 a day

A friend of mine was out buying nzo again today -he is very good at finding the best value in nz shares-pointed out to me that the value he puts on PRC per share plus the current cash value per share is more than the current share price !