NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Unicorn]

Does the $285m count the $20m paid out in dividends recently?

No, the dividend is excluded as it was paid in Q2.

The $285M I suggested at year end was actually my estimate of the current cash (too many bits of paper around here). Sorry for the confusion.

The reported figure at end of year, was $256M. This was superceded by an announced figure of $280M late in July after final options money was received, and presumably most of the July Tui income. The $36M odd estimate was from the first quarter.

After the dividend, my guess right now would be around $285M. But some of this may have been applied to various purposes such as reducing Kupe borrowings.

[corsairx]

I agree. Surely only those needing the funds would sell at a time when the fundamentals are so sound. Sad state of affairs if you ask me. Comes back the the old adage of never investing what you may need.

I keep reading variants of this argument "Who would want to sell now, while the market is going down, but when there is such fundamental value"

Isn't the answer is obvious? Any rational investor

If you don't think that the market and thus the share price will continue to trend downwards then sure. That is a valid argument. If you think the current price right now is the very lowest the share will go in the immediate future then great. Hold.

But if you think that the share price will continue to fall then why would you ever want to hold? I agree that the underlying fundamentals are strong. NZO has a large amount of cash that leaves it well positioned. But I believe that its share price will continue to downtrend, at least in the short term.

If you sold a few weeks ago and bought again right now, spending all the cash you received, you would be holding significantly more shares right now. Significantly more shares in a company you believe has great long term value.

[bermuda]

NZO is very undervalued and will soar when the $US falls and the price of oil climbs.

[corsairx]

Hope that you are right about that Bermuda. In the meantime I will be waiting for it to hit bottom.

Given that all share prices are being hit by a loss of confidence I don't think the rise, assuming there is a rise, will be so fast that I will miss it.

The Bull goes up the stairs and the Bear jumps out the window. Confidence isn't going to be rebuilt instantly, it will take time, and during that time the price of all shares will be held down.

Recently prices have been falling by around 2% a day. If oil starts to rise in price it will need to rise faster than these falls before it would make sense to buy. Even then it would only make sense if one felt that it would continue to not just rise but exceed the fall in general market prices. Of course at the moment the price of oil has also been falling.

[the machine]

nzo square today on asx, however a 7c gap between buyer and seller implies market actually higher.

as regards other tui partners - awe & ppp both up in the end.

maybe caught up with market recovery after the RBA 1% interest rate - but underlining thing is all 3 oilers off their lows.

sure, the fall of the aud against greenback is also in play.

bloomberg shows WTI has increased by 4% and opec talking about reducing production

hopefully have seen the bottom of the fall.


get that rig cheap for tui in 2009 is the go!

M

[Nitaa]

Well i feel like i have just been givwen one uppercut after another. If i had this much success in the music industry id be bigger than the Beatles. (1 hit after another)

On a more serious note, i think there are not too many on this forum that have expereiced what is going on here right now.

comparing '87 to '08 here are the 2 big differences. '87 (although in a global bubble) went WAM overnight like a lead ballon into a pond. The ripple effect kept kept speading for many years later. Now we are seeing the initial impact of the subprime mortgage which started as a small ripple and now looks like a small snowball gathering mass down a mountain.

sorry for being off topic but i think its qute fascinating even if my assets have deminished somewhat.

Always look on the bright side. The Dow is not likely to drop any more than another 9,500 or so points before she bottoms out

[bermuda]

Well i feel like i have just been givwen one uppercut after another. If i had this much success in the music industry id be bigger than the Beatles. (1 hit after another)

On a more serious note, i think there are not too many on this forum that have expereiced what is going on here right now.

comparing '87 to '08 here are the 2 big differences. '87 (although in a global bubble) went WAM overnight like a lead ballon into a pond. The ripple effect kept kept speading for many years later. Now we are seeing the initial impact of the subprime mortgage which started as a small ripple and now looks like a small snowball gathering mass down a mountain.

sorry for being off topic but i think its qute fascinating even if my assets have deminished somewhat.

Always look on the bright side. The Dow is not likely to drop any more than another 9,500 or so points before she bottoms out

Hi Nita,
If she drops 9500 points she will be in negative territory!!! lol. These idiots on Fast Talk are forecasting a one day 1000 point rally. That I would like to see!! Meanwhile the world chews through another 86 million barrels a day and cancels alternative energy programs left, right and centre.

China and India will see us through....just.

[Casa del Energia]

Hi Nita,
If she drops 9500 points she will be in negative territory!!! lol. These idiots on Fast Talk are forecasting a one day 1000 point rally. That I would like to see!! Meanwhile the world chews through another 86 million barrels a day and cancels alternative energy programs left, right and centre.

China and India will see us through....just.

Sorry, looks like China is off the map:

From the Guardian 6 Oct...

Analysts are watching oil demand from China -- which helped fuel a 6-year rally in commodities -- for signs the crisis is hitting consumption.
The world's No. 2 consumer will not import gasoline for the second straight month and instead export the fuel due to heavy domestic stockpiles and a dip in demand.

[Major von Tempsky]

I can't believe that as recently as "yesterday" posters here are speculating on a big rise in oil.
How far out of touch can you get?

Substantial recession spells substantial drop in demand.
Popping of the commodities bubble and popping of inflation spells an end to speculators (except shorters) in oil.

Get real.

[fish]

I can't believe that as recently as "yesterday" posters here are speculating on a big rise in oil.
How far out of touch can you get?

Substantial recession spells substantial drop in demand.
Popping of the commodities bubble and popping of inflation spells an end to speculators (except shorters) in oil.

Get real.

MVT this is rich coming from you-it was only a few years ago that you were extolling the virtues of telecom at over $6-and if I remember correctly were leveraging by buying partly paid shares .

I am sure everyone posting here knows that a recession reduces demand .It will also reduce production .
The world might stop buying latest tv/gadgets/phones . It isnt going to reduce using oil by much -people still will have to travel,heat homes,etc . Meanwhile the world is using up its finite resource .At sometime the tide will turn-nobody knows when and the price of oil will escalate again . In the meantime the price is still good in nz dollar terms we are currently making a profit before tax and royalties of $130 a barrel on over 4000 barrels a day-next year we have kupe onstream and PRC as well
Buyers of nzo are buying into a company with massive cash assets , spectacular daily income and profits which at current prices will more than double next year
Above all we have superb experienced management,great pr -chris roberts,and superb prospects