NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[AMR]

MD may be right on the oil reversal. From charting terms it looks like it could go higher if it completes the H&S pattern.

[Sumnerned]

Hi Shrewd, thanks for the info.

It looks as though the IEA report doesn't talk much about new discoveries, but from my reading there hasn't been much of significance apart from the Brazilian offshore stuff which is neither really proven nor necessarily technically feasible.

So if even if we take an optimistic figure of 5%pa reduction we get down to around 64mb/d by 2015, and demand is expected to increase to over 90mb/d!

So when does the panic set in? Right now lots of experts are forecasting prices around $80, but they are either taking a very short term view, or think we can quickly convert to bio, shale, tar, gas, flying pigs etc.

Possible first date for panic Nov 12 when the IEA release the report?

Cheers

[Crypto Crude]

sumnerned-Possible first date for panic Nov 12 when the IEA release the report?

sumnerned,
In the short term, markets/and prices can be dictated by external forces such as traders and sentiment. The market is not dumb, so in the long run prices of oil , and sharemarkets will adjust accordingly and will settle in equilibrium. BUT, This Oil story is a whole new beast. There will be no long run equilibrium of supply equaling demand.
this is because we are dealing with an inelastic good that consumers can not substitute out of easily. (the perfect mix for oilers)....
On the other hand, Sharemarkets will adjust because indexes are trading at their very very worst case scenarios. EG priced at depression, when we are only in recession... We have seen lately that markets are rallying even when bad news is coming through (because it was already factored in)...
In the current market situation prices of everything are dictated by sentiment only.

We had warning signals when Oil hit $147. Remember that those high prices were blamed on speculators going long?
Going on what I have said, these speculators could drive the price in the short term but not in the long term. Therefore, there is still debate on why the Price's actually rose so much in the first place. This debate is why nothing has been done so we can change, and/or get ready for that future blow out, a real blow out !. 95% of posters on this site have called it right and understand the issue on why Oil prices are going much much higher (after market sentiment settles down)...Maybe even shortly we will get the first signs of oil booming. We cant predict the path to that future price, but we can clearly say that Oil will easily get to $200 US per barrel at some time. If Oil does start rising when the markets are going sideways then this is a clear signal to me of what is to come.... thats if it was not clear to start with...
thank you.

.^sc

[bermuda]

sumnerned,
In the short term, markets/and prices can be dictated by external forces such as traders and sentiment. The market is not dumb, so in the long run prices of oil , and sharemarkets will adjust accordingly and will settle in equilibrium. BUT, This Oil story is a whole new beast. There will be no long run equilibrium of supply equaling demand.
this is because we are dealing with an inelastic good that consumers can not substitute out of easily. (the perfect mix for oilers)....
On the other hand, Sharemarkets will adjust because indexes are trading at their very very worst case scenarios. EG priced at depression, when we are only in recession... We have seen lately that markets are rallying even when bad news is coming through (because it was already factored in)...
In the current market situation prices of everything are dictated by sentiment only.

We had warning signals when Oil hit $147. Remember that those high prices were blamed on speculators going long?
Going on what I have said, these speculators could drive the price in the short term but not in the long term. Therefore, there is still debate on why the Price's actually rose so much in the first place. This debate is why nothing has been done so we can change, and/or get ready for that future blow out, a real blow out !. 95% of posters on this site have called it right and understand the issue on why Oil prices are going much much higher (after market sentiment settles down)...Maybe even shortly we will get the first signs of oil booming. We cant predict the path to that future price, but we can clearly say that Oil will easily get to $200 US per barrel at some time. If Oil does start rising when the markets are going sideways then this is a clear signal to me of what is to come.... thats if it was not clear to start with...
thank you.

.^sc

Shrewdy,
That was one hell of a post. You said it all. Well done mate.

And Summerned,
Great post. The IEA are really getting their tits in a tangle about this one ( the release ) far out. It's a complete 180. If the public get to know what's going on ...watch out.

This so so much bigger than people realise. Well done Shrewdy. Great words.

[digger]

Shrewd crude that was a top post. I am waiting with interest when the average joe on the street become aware of our oil situation.Actually apart from the few people i have forced fed on the PO theory i have never heard anyone on the street mention the subject.Contrast that with how readly one can hear about sports. When will the triping point kick in?????
Digger

[whirly]

Hey Macdunk

Not sneering over here - just happy to follow your earlier logic of staying out all together for now. Must be some money to be made though with all the volatility. Good luck with CUE. For me 8% in the bank and no effort required beats every system I've come up with this year.
Sorry its been off topic guys.

w

[duncan macgregor]

Hey Macdunk

Not sneering over here - just happy to follow your earlier logic of staying out all together for now. Must be some money to be made though with all the volatility. Good luck with CUE. For me 8% in the bank and no effort required beats every system I've come up with this year.
Sorry its been off topic guys.

w

Hey Whirly what do you do when the 8% comes in like its done for me this year, do you stick it back in. or have a dabble with the profit?. I more than doubled my money on nickel, and uranium stocks stocks playing the game to its max before picking the market to crash. the market is going sideways for the next couple of years i am only having a thrill on the next drill which looks like good odds. Oil will eventually go sky high in the medium term so not much risk in buying an underpriced share in that sector. The share market will go no where, as long as the govt gaurantees bank deposits for the financial illiterates. I do buy an occasional lotto ticket as well which is a much riskier investment than buying a few CUE shares. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk-NZO from a short term investment is not one of them, you gotta have the thrill of the drill. NZO are into a consolidate what they have phase, making it a bad choice for a quick gain unlike cue who are up and at it.
NZO have no exciting prospects, its all wait and see, we know best.
Markets change, the market will go no where for at least a couple of years, simply because so many people have been burned in this crash that they are to scared to come back.

mackdunk,
I hope you are only joking by saying that NZO is not a good investment right now, or that they have 'no exciting prospects'..... hahahaha...
'consolidate what they have phase'....hahahaha....
what they have phase is going to lead to a 2-3 buck share on the downside 'phase'...
Lets quickly strip this puppy apart... lets forget about the short term...
As I have said many many times before, Timelines in the oil industry are of no use because projects get delayed, exploration drilling delayed, production startups always delayed, re-rating oil projects to fair value takes longer etc etc... therefore in reality --->no Oil investment is ever a short term play...
yes oil companies have short term activities...
and short term drilling... NZO on the other hand has short term large revenues, medium term major revenues and long term major revenues...
NZO is just in a different cycle compared to other companies...
that does not mean that NZO is a bad investment choice...
NZO is uncomparable to the likes of CUE (just yet)...in saying that CUE is on the same sort of path that NZO has created...multi developments, multi productions...etc...

This year has been 1929,1987... NZO has done very very well considering...

NZO really could rise a one bagger in a short amount of time with Kupe and Pike production looming... whats wrong with having a one year outlook...
on 30th Sept 2008 NZO had 286 million cash in bank...
plus its holding 81.7million pike shares, at $1.33 that is a further 108 million dollars..
pike shares plus cash at bank is worth 400million dollars...
market cap is 500 million dollars...

what value does that leave for Pike upside and fair value pike. what value does that leave for Kupe...

significant drilling program in Taranaki planned...
exciting Canterbuy Basin venture-> Barque...
3rd quarter 09 major Kupe Production... Pike with 50% upside to reserves...
Come on man.... give the punters a heads up...
NZO ran to $1.90 when you were completely against the stock, dont let yourself be against the stock when a run happens again...

When this is all over us oilers will look back and wonder if there was ever a market crash at all.... --->We lose time, we dont lose money...

Thanks for your support in these hard times mackdunk...
you have done very well for yourself...
as I said we will each ride a bull out of this, horse back style...
I will be sure to find you the tamest bull so as to not throw you off the saddle and in the arena for some horn on flesh action... hehehe...

NZO is still the most undervalued stock on the entire NZX...

mackdunk you also said that the Markets are going to go sideways for years.. you are most surely wrong with that call... I will explain all on my yearly outlook thread... We saw last week the DOW have its 2nd biggest one day rise of all time...
This is just a snapshot of sharemarkets coming out of depression status and into recession status...reality... expect some bottom trawling...
I called it awhile back--> The lows maybe re tested, and a slight overshoot...
7000-7500 on the DOW absolute low... if those lows were tested they wont stay there for long at all...

The crash is over... get set on positions like NZO NOW...
and hold them for one year minimum, and make 100%...
Short term acquistion possiblity...
Lets see a more proactive acquisiton path...

catch all you others up soon...

.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

HEY CRUDE ONE, First of all you tell me how silly i am for being out the market last feb or there abouts. Its obvious who got that one right. You then try to talk me in to buying CUE when it was 22.5c with me telling you to wait on a TA buy signal. You jumpted in with half your money in CUE, at an average of 21.5c where i got in with a little bit of bank interest at 13.5c so i guess it was me getting that one right.
I doubled my bank last year, am up for a gain of 8% this year with the profit riding on CUE at 13.5c a share. You are playing catch up mate, you will learn fast that you never risk half your bank on an illiquid share. You got to concede your ar*e is getting whipped at the moment by old macdunk. When any company with such a low turnover as CUE you can forget stop losses, you must read the market in advance of the action and be first to act.
I did have a look at NZO but think it wont move fast enough for me. The fun in this game is learnig to read the sign posts, picking the market by reading the commodoty charts, then jump in finding the company most likely short term to benefit. Oil is a decreasing commodoty with an over sold price in an under supply market.
Forget the stupidity of company worshippers, who ride a share down making excuses. The company to you and i is only a vehicle to increase our bank balance, nothing more than that. If you look at a long term chart of NZO you will see where a stop loss would have saved these people from their company worshipping selves. Macdunk

[Lion]

PRC and NZO trading near the same value again - fairly meaningless I know, but interesting