NZ Oil & Gas (NZO)

[Bilo]

Don't you just love it! When oil goes over $110NZ per barrel and the fundamentalists go searching for their company and project valuations. Yes, you must have a spreadsheet to work out the maths! The NZO share price isn't about maths. I posted a couple of days ago that the NZO capitalisation on the NZX was potentially less than the receipts they will get from Tui oil in the first 12 months of oil flow. Add to this: AWE's 6 months receipts could buy NZO twice over.

Oil up. Exchange rate down. And the NZO and AWE share prices go down!!!

Clearly someone wants to prove the point that the market can remain irrational for longer than we can remain solvent. Interesting day - will they win.

[Bilo]

Croesus, if NZO weren't rolling in so much Tui cash they could tell you how much they were investing in PRC and Kupe and exploration. Just look at the receipts - the project has been funded and some of the next as well.

[Bilo]

Beer on the Beach with David Salisbury?
To introduce a slightly different subject.

When building a house or celebrating a new addition to the family it is tradional in NZ to put a few beers on the site or go out with friends for a drink.

NZO directors and management should celebrate the first one million barrels of oil with shareholders – I think nominating a time and a place and organising internet acceptances would be in order.

Start a tradition we have Kupe’s 1M Barrels of Oil equivalent and Pike’s first 1M tonnes of the world’s finest coking coal to look forward to also. Or NZO can continue being nameless and faceless to their keenest, if not the richest, supporters.


(PS. I had to check the web site for the name of our new CEO as I hadn’t heard it mentioned for a while, David Salisbury)

[Nitaa]

Waaihoek valued PRC at $120m and Hector/Taranui at $40m = $160m at a low base valuation. Hector/Taranui now = 0m and NZO's PRC stake is valued in the market at $55m.

So it's $105m less or 52.5 cents less per share on his valuation.

Using the high case scenario, PRC was valued at $201m and H/T at $66m = $267m.

So that's $212m less or $1.06 less per share.

Brrrrrr... she's a cold morning, isn't she? Good reality check?

to give this post some balance.

2 years ago my sons car was worth 180k now its worth less than 70k. his property worth 1.2m and sold for 1.95m 2 months ago.

its strange how time effects things in different ways.

giving a balanced view as always. (i can remember seeing that somewhere)

[bermuda]

Beer on the Beach with David Salisbury?
To introduce a slightly different subject.

When building a house or celebrating a new addition to the family it is tradional in NZ to put a few beers on the site or go out with friends for a drink.

NZO directors and management should celebrate the first one million barrels of oil with shareholders – I think nominating a time and a place and organising internet acceptances would be in order.

Start a tradition we have Kupe’s 1M Barrels of Oil equivalent and Pike’s first 1M tonnes of the world’s finest coking coal to look forward to also. Or NZO can continue being nameless and faceless to their keenest, if not the richest, supporters.


(PS. I had to check the web site for the name of our new CEO as I hadn’t heard it mentioned for a while, David Salisbury)

Bilo,
As a suggestion I am sure we could ask David Salisbury to address a small group of SHAREHOLDERS after the AGM and after lunch (Savouries and Tui ) in a small Boardroom.

We did this last year for an hour with Tony Radford and it was well worthwhile. You can cover a lot more ground than by asking questions in this format than at the AGM.

Let me know who is interested and I will run it by him.
Ps Shareholders only.

[Dr_Who]

I will be there is there are free booze and food.

[bermuda]

I will be there is there are free booze and food.

It would be an opportunity to sit around a Board table and have a chat for those that are sincerely interested.

Orange juice and water will be served.

[Bilo]

Bilo,
As a suggestion I am sure we could ask David Salisbury to address a small group of SHAREHOLDERS after the AGM and after lunch (Savouries and Tui ) in a small Boardroom.

We did this last year for an hour with Tony Radford and it was well worthwhile. You can cover a lot more ground than by asking questions in this format than at the AGM.

Let me know who is interested and I will run it by him.
Ps Shareholders only.

Bermuda, I have no date or venue for the AGM, does anyone?

The AGM may be an opportunity to combine both activities but the 1M barrels will come before the AGM. I was thinking something far more informal than an AGM would be appropriate - an excuse to party without people running around over formalities.

[Bilo]

Between Balance and Boysey we have 2 ends of the Spectrum....... not being a expert on NZO could someone post a value....which includes
Debt Owed
Cash in the Bank..plus estimate of Tui Cash going forward ( have they Hedged at a lower level then current mkt)
Forward expense ... commitments for future drills etc

Cheers Croesus

There was this back in May - an update would normally be appropriate in terms of NZX continuous disclosure!

"5:00AM Saturday May 19, 2007
By Adam Bennett
Chief executive David Salisbury expected operating ebitda from the Tui field in the June 2008 year to be at least $70 million, up from $60 million.
Rising oil prices have seen New Zealand Oil & Gas lift its earnings forecasts for its key Tui and Kupe oil and gas businesses, and the company says tax credits mean much of the money will go straight to its bottom line.
The company released the estimates in a briefing to institutional investors yesterday.
It had previously said it expected operating ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of $60 million from the Tui field in the June 2008 year, its first full year of operation. It now expects at least $70 million.
The previous estimate was based on an oil price of about US$45 a barrel but Malaysian Tapis crude oil, which serves as the regional benchmark, had been trading around US$73 lately.
But NZOG had made "conservative" estimates using a price of US$60 a barrel, NZOG chief executive David Salisbury said.
The price fetched by Tui oil over the period could turn out to be higher, further lifting earnings.
"But I'm conscious that the oil price is volatile and we want to give people a strong indication of where we sit, not have them feel that we're overstating the story," Salisbury said.
NZOG's estimates are based on current exchange rate levels for the 2008 year.."

[Zorbah]

.
..... and the price of Tapis crude hits US$80 per barrel !!!!

See second diagram:

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm

Go the Tui pump-out !!!!